R. Saranavan (2022) The Climate Demon — Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction

  • R[amalingam] Saravanan, 2022: The Climate Demon — Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction. Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press, 379 pp. ISBN 978-1-009-01804-3 (paperback).

2022年の新刊。わたしは2022年3月20日、東京の本屋の洋書売り場で見つけて買った。A5判のペーパーバック。まだ実質的な読書メモができていないが、ひとまず (折りかえしのあとに) くわしい目次を出しておく。

== 目次 ==
Contents
List of Figures
Preface
Acknowledgments
Introduction
– Purpose of the Book
– Structure of the Book
Part 1. The Past
1. Deducing Weather: The Dawn of Computing
– 1.1 From Sunspot Cycles to Compute Cycles
– 1.2 Philosophy Break: Inductivism versus Deductivism
– 1.3 The Weatherperson and the Computer
– 1.4 The Dark Side of Weather Prediction
2. Predicting Weather: The Butterfly and the Tornado
– 2.1 Philosophy Break: Laplace’s Demon, Determinism, and Paradigm Shifts
– 2.2 Atmospheric Data: Sharing Selfies on the WWW
– 2.3 The Assimilation of Data
– 2.4 The Butterfly Effect
– 2.5 An Ensemble of Demons
– 2.6 The Infinite Forecast
3. The Greenhouse Effect: Goldilocks and the Three Planets
– 3.1 Lessons from a Hot Summer Day: Radiation, Albedo, and Convection
– 3.2 Lessons from a Cold Winter Night: Greenhouse Effect and Climate Sensitivity
– 3.3 Eunice Foote and the Three Glass Tube Experiments
– 3.4 Arrhenius and the First Climate Model
– 3.5 Climate Feedbacks and Forcings
– 3.6 Too Hot, Too Cold, and Just Right
4. Deducing Climate: Smagorinsky’s Laboratory
– 4.1 General Circulation of the Atmosphere
– 4.2 From Tokyo with Meteorology
– 4.3 Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling
– 4.4 Philosophy Break: Reductionism and Emergentism
– 4.5 Models of Simplicity in the Garden of Complexity
– 4.6 Flywheel of Climate: The Circulating Ocean
5. Predicting Climate: Butterflies in the Greenhouse
– 5.1 Nature versus Nurture: Initial and Boundary Conditions
– 5.2 Far from the Madding Crowd: The Keeling Curve
– 5.3 It Takes Two to Tango: Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
– 5.4 Academia Warns to Global Warming
6. The Ozone Hole: Black Swan at the Polar Dawn
– 6.1 The Ozone Layer: Earth’s Sunscreen
– 6.2 The Road to Ozone Depletion1
– 6.3 Cloudy Skies in the Polar Night
– 6.4 Patching the Hole: Ozone Recovery and Climate Change
7. Global Warming: From Gown to Town
– 7.1 Assessing Climate Change
– 7.2 Howcatchem: The Attribution of Recent Climate Change
– 7.3 Extreme Weather Attribution: The Butterfly Did It?
– 7.4 The Minuscule but Mighty Aerosol
– 7.5 Internal Variability: Much Ado about a Hiatus
– 7.6 Storylines, Scenarios, and Projections
– 7.7 Warming Globally, Impacting Locally
Part 2. The Present
8. Occam’s Razor: The Reduction to Simplicity
– 8.1 Philosophy Break: The Principle of Parsimony
– 8.2 Predicting versus Understanding: Complexity versus Simplicity
– 8.3 Biology Analogy: The Fruit Fly Model of Climate
– 8.4 Spherical Cows and Tipping Points
9. Contrasting Climate: A Conservative View of Modeling
– 9.1 Conservation of Mass and Energy
– 9.2 Flux Adjustment and Non-Conservation
– 9.3 Community Climate Modeling
– 9.4 Earth System Models: Carbon Cycle and More
– 9.5 Better Models, More Uncertainty?
– 9.6 Predictive, Constraining, and Explanatory Power
10. Tuning Climate: A Comedy of Compensating Errors
– 10.1 Model Tuning: Orchestra or Whack-a-Mole?
– 10.2 Correctness, Confirmability, and Usefulness of Models
11. Occam’s Beard: The Emergence of Complexity
– 11.1 The Anna Karenina Principle
– 11.2 An Ensemble of Climate Demons
– 11.3 Hard Mentality and Model Diversity
– 11.4 Catch-22: Reproducibility and Replicability
12. The Hansen Paradox: The Red Queen’s Race of Climate Modeling
– 12.1 Falsifiability of Climate Models
– 12.2 Harder than Rocket Science: Numerical Convergence and Climate Modeling
– 12.3 Carroll, Borges, and the Reducibility Limit
13. The Rumsfeld Matrix: Degrees of Knowledge
– 13.1 The Arc of Model Improvement
– 13.2 Benefits of Parameterizations: Downstream versus Upstream
– 13.3 Contrarians at the Gate
– 13.4 Unknown Knowns: The Threat of Willful Ignorance
– 13.5 Means, Motive, and Opportunity — Or the Lack Thereof
– 13.6 Contrarianism and Unconstrained Ideation
– 13.7 Howaboutism: Getting down in the Trenches
14. Lost in Translation
– 14.1 What Is a Model?
– 14.2 What Is Data?
– 14.3 Models versus Data: The Problem of Induction
– 14.4 What is “Business as Usual”?
– 14.5 What Is Prediction?
15. Taking Climate Models Seriously, Not Literally
– 15.1 Deep Uncertainty: When Error Bars have Error Bars
– 15.2 Precision versus Accuracy: Degrees of Warming
– 15.3 Pitfalls of the Uncertainty Trough
– 15.4 “OK Doomer”: The Power of Numeric Prophecies
Part 3. The Future
16. Moore’s Law: To Exascale and Beyond
– 16.1 Making Chips That Don’t Fry
– 16.2 A Brief History of Supercomputing
– 16.3 Chip Wars: March of the GPUs
– 16.4 Topping the Computing Charts
– 16.5 Care and Feeding of the Growing Climate Demon: Economics and Energetics
17. Machine Learning: The Climate Imitation Game
– 17.1 Can Machines Learn?
– 17.2 Model Wars: Inductivism Strikes Back
– 17.3 Mapping the Landscape of Models
18. Geoengineering: Reducing the Fever
– 18.1 How to Train the Climate Demon
– 18.2 Sulfates in the Sky
19. Pascal’s Wager: Hedging Our Climate Bets
– 19.1 An Actuarial Approach to Long-Term Climate Change Risk
– 19.2 Blowin’ in the Wind: Reasoning through the Fog of Numbers
– 19.3 Planning for the Future: Spanning the Uncertainties
– 19.4 Assessing Climate Risk: The Difficulties with Probabilities
20. Moonwalking into the Future
– 20.1 The Paris Potluck
Epilogue
Glossary
Notes
Select Bibliography
References
Index

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