• Christian Pfister & Heinz Wanner (translated by Angela Wade), 2021: Climate and Society in Europe: the Last Thousand Years. Bern: Haupt Verlag, 397 pp. ISBN 978-3-258-08234-9.

2021年に出版された、A5判より大きくB5判より小さい判形のハードカバー。わたしは2021年末に洋書屋さんの通信販売のウェブサイトで見つけて注文し、2022年2月に受け取った。

Pfisterさんは Bern大学の歴史学者で1990年ごろにはすでに歴史気候の研究者として知られていたが今もactiveらしい。Wannerさんについてわたしはよく知らないが、本の編著者としてはときどき見かける。出版社はベルンにあり、ウェブサイト http://haupt.ch があるのだが見ようとすると Forbidden になってしまう。Twitter アカウント @HauptVerlag をみつけたのできいてみたら、ウェブサイトの設定でヨーロッパの外からのアクセスを拒否しているのだそうだ。不満だがくいさがらないことにした。(スイスは学術のレベルは高いのだが、出版社は地方出版社的なものしかない。ドイツ語圏の主要な出版業は旧西ドイツにある。)

本書の話題の中心は、西暦1000年ごろ以後のヨーロッパの気候を、人が書いた文書の情報にもとづいて、復元推定した結果だ。日本の歴史時代の気候の復元推定ならば、毎日の天気をふくむ日記がつかわれることが多い。ヨーロッパにも毎日の天気をふくむ日記があることはあるのだが (本書4-4-3節、94-97ページ)、めずらしいもので、それをおもな材料として議論することはむずかしいらしい。つかわれている材料は、農作物の収穫日付とか、川の氷などの自然物の観察などが多い。本書では、1年を四季にわけたうえで、さまざまな記録を、寒暖と乾湿それぞれ -3 から +3 までの7段階の指標にして集計する方法で、ヨーロッパの毎年の四季の寒暖・乾湿の時系列データを得ている。本文で論じているのは、冬と夏は西暦 1000年以後、春は1200年以後、秋は1400年以後である。

目次につづいて Online appendix の紹介がある。URL https://boris.unibe.ch/id/eprint/148155 は正しいが、DOI は 本書に印刷された 10.7892/boris.148155 ではなく 10.48350/148155 である。内容は本書に印刷された Table 4 までよりも拡充されて Table 9 まである。しかし、2023-09-13現在 boris のサイトにあるファイルのうち Table 4 の内容が、ファイル名とちがい、(現在の) Table 1 と同じものになっている。本書でつかわれた情報の出典文献リストなので、確認できないのは残念なのだが、まだ必要にせまられていないのでといあわせていない。

折りかえしのあとに 目次をつける。

== 目次 ==
Table of contents
Preface
Abbreviations
1. Introduction
– 1.1 The switch to rapid warming — a new comparative basis in climate history
– 1.2 Two scientific cultures
– 1.3 Common ground
– 1.4 The climate system
– 1.5 The global energy balance — driver of the climate system
– 1.6 What determined the Holocene energy and temperature flucutations?
– 1.7 Circulation, energy and mass exchange — basic elements of climate dynamics
– 1.8 Forcing disturbances and internal variability generate climate change
– 1.9 The structure of the book
2. Ötzi’s wake-up call
– 2.1 Introduction
– 2.2 Facing a Neolithic mummy
– Insert 2A: The most throughly investigated body in the world
– 2.3 Ötzi’s last hike
– Insert 2B: The longer-term climatic background
– 2.4 Ötzi and the mid-Holocene transition to cooler climate
– 2.5 Conclusion
3. The long arm of Tambora
– 3.1 Introduction
– 3.2 Dark night to midday
– 3.3 A global weather chaos
– Insert 3A: Disaster alert in a mountain valley
– 3.4 Europe’s last subsistence crisis
– 3.5 Contrasting vulnerabilities
– 3.6 Too many hunger refugees
– Insert 3B: The birtu of Frankenstein and Dracula
– 3.7 Conclusion
4. From weather narratives to climate science
– 4.1 Introduction
– 4.2 An animated environment
– 4.3 Developing weather chronicles
– – 4.3.1 The Graeco-Arabic legacy
– – 4.3.2 The 12-th century Renaissance
– – 4.3.3 Reporting under clerical control
– – 4.3.4 Outstanding weather chronicles
– 4.4 Systematic weather reporting
– – 4.4.1 The significance of astrometeorology
– – 4.4.2 Weather reports from the world’s oceans
– – 4.4.3 Outstanding weather diarists
– 4.5 The instrumental measurements of the weather
– – 4.5.1 A breeding ground for innovations
– – 4.5.2 The establishment of meteorological networks
– 4.6 A fundamental break
– – 4.6.1 The rise of scientific meteorology and climatology
– – 4.6.2 The exclusion of extreme events
– 4.7 Summary and conclusion
5. Reconstructing past climate
– 5.1 Introduction
– 5.2 Evidence from archives of nature
– – 5.2.1 Signal detection and dating
– – 5.2.2 Trees never forget
– – 5.2.3 Mud with a long-term memory
– – 5.2.4 Ice cores — long frozen climate calendars
– – 5.2.5 Stalagmites — an archive growing drop by drop
– – 5.2.6 Glaciers and treelines — synthetic integrators of climate change
– 5.3 Evidence from archives of societies
– – 5.3.1 A puzzle with missing pieces
– – 5.3.2 How glaciers became pictures
– – 5.3.3 The blessings of historical administrations
– – 5.3.4 The summer half-year in the light of vine growing
– – 5.3.5 Cultural responses to climatic scenes
– 5.4 Numbers out of words — the concept of indices
– 5.5 Outlook to Chapters 6 to 8
6. European climate — present and past
– 6.1 The European topography at a glance
– 6.2 Spatial overview of current Eueopean climate
– 6.3 A 1000-year-long overview
– 6.4 A 1000-year-long simulation
7. The High Medieval Period 1000 to 1300 AD
– 7.1 Introduction and guide to source references
– 7.2 A warm peak around 1000 AD
– Instert 7A: Viking on a voyage of discovery — from Iceland to the New World
– 7.3 The 11th century
– – 7.3.1 Winters from 1000 to 1099
– – Instert 7B: The Road to Canossa — pure fiction?
– – 7.3.2 Summers from 1000 to 1099
– – 7.3.3 General climatic conditions in the 11th century
– 7.4 The 12th century
– – 7.4.1 Winters from 1100 to 1199
– – 7.4.2 Summers from 1100 to 1199
– – 7.4.3 General climatic conditions in the 12th century
– 7.5 The 13th century
– – 7.5.1 Winters from 1200 to 1299
– – 7.5.2 Springs from 1200 to 1299
– – 7.5.3 Summers from 1200 to 1299
– – Insert 7C: Olive trees in Cologne
– – 7.5.4 General climatic conditions in the 13th century
8. The Boreal Little Ice Age and the Short Twentieth Century
– 8.1 Introduction
– 8.2 The fateful 14th century
– – 8.2.1 Winters from 1300 to 1399
– – 8.2.2 Springs from 1300 to 1399
– – 8.2.3 Summers from 1300 to 1399
– – Insert 8A: the millennium flood of July 1342
– – 8.2.4 General climatic conditions in the 14th century
– – Insert 8B: The Flowered Alp Saga
– 8.3 The frosty 15th century
– – 8.3.1 Winters from 1400 to 1499
– – 8.3.2 Springs from 1400 to 1499
– – Insert 8C: Wolves in Paris
– – 8.3.3 The 14-month-long heat and drought in 1473 to 1474
– – Insert 8D: Characteristics of outstanding hot and dry European summers
– – 8.3.4 Summers from 1400 to 1499
– – 8.3.5 Autumns from 1400 to 1499
– – 8.3.6 General climatic conditions in the 15th century
– 8.4 The two-faced 16th century
– – 8.4.1 Winters from 1500 to 1599
– – 8.4.2 Springs from 1500 to 1599
– – 8.4.3 Summers from 1500 to 1599
– – 8.4.4 The 11-month-long heat and drought in 1540
– – 8.4.5 Autumns from 1500 to 1599
– – Insert 8E: The fate of the Spanish Armada
– – 8.4.6 Annual temperatures from 1500 to 1599
– – 8.4.7 General cliamtic conditions in the 16th century
– 8.5 The volatile 17th century
– – 8.5.1 Winters from 1600 to 1699
– – 8.5.2 Springs from 1600 to 1699
– – 8.5.3 Summers from 1600 to 1699
– – Insert 8F: The most devastating inferno in peacetime
– – 8.5.4 Autumns from 1600 to 1699
– – 8.5.5 Annual temperatures from 1600 to 1699
– – 8.5.6 General climatic conditions in the 17th century
– – Insert 8G: Why the Greenland whales survived
– 8.6 The quiet 18th century
– – 8.6.1 Winters from 1700 to 1799
– – Insert 8H: Sudden Stratospheric Warming and the Big Chill of 1709
– – 8.6.2 Springs from 1700 to 1799
– – 8.6.3 Summers from 1700 to 1799
– – Insert 8I: Five months of volcanic haze over Europe
– – 8.6.4 Autumns from 1700 to 1799
– – 8.6.5 Annual temperatures from 1700 to 1799
– – 8.6.6 General climatic condition in the 18th century
– 8.7 The record-breaking cold 19th century
– – 8.7.1 Introduction
– – 8.7.2 Winters from 1800 to 1899
– – Insert 8J: Events and sporting activities on the ice
– – 8.7.3 Springs from 1800 to 1899
– – 8.7.4 Summers from 1800 to 1899
– – 8.7.5 Autumns from 1800 to 1899
– – 8.7.6 Annual temperatures from 1800 to 1899
– – 8.7.7 General climatic conditions in the 19th century
– 8.8 The slow-warming 20th century
– – 8.8.1 Winters from 1900 to 1999
– – Insert 8K: Winter 1963 — the last memory of the Little Ice Age
– – 8.8.2 Springs from 1900 to 1999
– – 8.8.3 Summers form 1900 to 1999
– – 8.8.4 Autumns from 1900 to 1999
– – 8.8.5 Annual temperatures from 1900 to 1999
– – 8.8.6 General climatic conditions in the Short Twentieth Century
– 8.9 Annual temperatures from 1500 to 1999
9. Weather, climate, and the human world
– 9.1 Introduction
– 9.2 Population size as s new focus
– 9.3 The medieval demographic greenhouse
– 9.4 Setback and stagnation
– Insert 9A: Biological warfare and the Black Death
– Insert 9B: Forging the Hammer of Witches
– 9.5 The two-faced 16th century
– Insert 9C: The age of with hunts 1570-1630
– 9.6 A cornucopia of innovations
– – 9.6.1 A new momentum in demographic growth
– – 9.6.2 Enforcing quarantine
– – 9.6.3 Modenising agriculture
– 9.7 Severe famines and overcoming them
– – 9.7.1 Hunger and climate variability
– – 9.7.2 Impacts of climate variability
– – 9.7.3 The millennium famine of 1195 to 1197
– – 9.7.4 13th-century famines
– – 9.7.5 The Great European Famine of 1315-17
– – 9.7.6 The deadly frost famine of 1437-37
– – 9.7.7 The Malthusian Famine of 1569-74
– – 9.7.8 The perennial crisis of 1585-1601
– – 9.7.9 Famines during the 17th and early 18th centuries
– – 9.7.10 Subsistence crises and famines in the late 18th and 19th centuries
– 9.8 Summeary and conclusion
10. European climate over the last millennium
– 10.1 The seasonally resolved climate of the period 1000 to 1989 AD
– – 10.1.1 Introduction
– – 10.1.2 The evolution of seasonal temperatures prior to the Recent Warming Period (RWP)
– – 10.1.3 Forcing factors and the longer-term picture
– – 10.1.4 Seasonal overview of the past millennium climate
– – 10.1.5 The transitions from the HMP to the BLIA and from the STC to the RWP
– 10.2 Glacier fluctuations
– 10.3 Tree line fluctuations
– 10.4 Climate and human affairs
11. From slow-going to rapid warming
– 11.1 Trapped in the greenhouse: From early detection in full manifestation
– – 11.1 Introduction
– – 11.2 Scientific pioneers and early alerters
– – 11.3 The greenhouse debate reaches the international level
– – 11.4 The greenhouse controversy
– 11.2 The “1950s Syndrome”
– 11.3 The sudden transition to sustained warming
– – 11.3.1 The Recent Warm Period (RWP)
– – 11.3.2 Future climate scenarios
– 11.4 The rerturn to vulnerability
Annex
Endnotes
Sources
Index
Figure credits
Thanks to the sponsors
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