Climate change (Class of 2019)
One of the international exchange courses, Tokyo Metropolitan University
Time: Academic year 2019, 1st semester (April-July 2019), Thursday 13:00-14:30
Place: Minami-Osawa campus, Building 12, Room 208
Note: Correspondence between date (mentioned in the syllabus) and content may change during the course.
Schedule and course materials
- This section will be updated weekly, both before and after lectures.
- Sometimes, materials which have appeared here will later be replaced with links to other pages.
- [x] Links to pages made by other people than the lecturer.
- [r] Pages with Restricted access
- [11 Apr.] [Introduction: Three layers of the concept of climate; Overview of the climate system]
- [18 Apr.]
- (19 Apr.) On 18 Apr. I missed mentioning open house events of research institutions in Tsukuba Science City, to be held in the weekend 20-21 Apr. as an opportunity to know about climate-related science.
Some institutions have museums which are open regularly.
I put information I have collected here on my blog. [Open house of research institutions (related to geo-science) in Tsukuba Science City]
- [25 Apr.]
- [ 2 May] No lecture. I will be in the office (8th Building 773).
- [ 9 May]
- [16 May]
- [23 May]
- [30 May]
- [6 June]
- [13 June]
- [20 June] (The materials will later be re-ordered and moved to other pages)
- Rough plan of the term report (equivalent to examination)
- Briefly reviewing [Short report assignment 1]
- Decision with uncertain knowledge
- We cannot wait for certain knowledge.
- Simple quantitative "risk" or "cost-benefit" thinking and its limits
- total net benefit = sum of ("net gain" × probability)
- e.g. lottery
- Needs (some estimate of) probability of each outcome
- Can all gain and loss be put on the same axis and same measure (e.g. monetary)
- How to deal with gain and loss at different time? "present value" with "discount rate"?
- How to deal with gain and loss to different people? (inter-personal, inter-sector (industry etc.), inter-regional, inter-generational)
- Is (probability-weighted) average a good indicator? Or, is extreme cases more important?
- How certain are those values of probability?
- "Precautionary (principle)" thinking and its limits
- It is important to reduce possibility of "very bad" (or "worst") outcome.
- "Very bad" is not in one direction. e.g. nuclear power plant accidents vs. global warming
- We can imagine a "very very bad" cases with very very low probability.
- [Expression of uncertainty by IPCC] "likely" and "confidence"
- Mark Maslin (2014) Climate Change :[Table of contents]
- [27 June] (The materials will later be re-ordered and moved to other pages)
- Countermeasures to anthropogenic climate change (brief view)
- Projection (cf. prediction) of future climate change
- "Detection and attribution" of past climate change
- "Temperature has risen!" "The main cause is carbon dioxide from human activities!"
- (Perhaps necessary to motivate policymaking.)
- More difficult than projection. A typical way uses the following components. It requires good simulation model(s).
- Analysis of observation
- Simulation with all probable forcing
- Simulation without the forcing in question (with other forcing)
- [x]IPCC AR5 WG1 Chap. 10 Fig. 10.1 (IPCC)
- (For caption, see Chapter 10. p. 879 of IPCC AR5 WG1 available from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1 )
- [x]IPCC AR5 WG1 Chap. 10 Box 10.1 Fig. 1 (IPCC)
- (For caption, see Chapter 10. p. 874 of IPCC AR5 WG1 available from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1 )
- [x]IPCC AR5 SYR Fig. 1.10 (IPCC)
- (For caption, see p. 49 of IPCC AR5 SYR available from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr )
- Expert knowledge about projection of future global warming is (relatively) more robust
than that about detection and attribution of past global warming.
- Knowledge of future global warming comes from theoretical thinking.
- Detection and attribution requires simulations based on theoretical thinking in addition to analysis of observations based on empirical thinking.
- Appearance of warming in surface temperature delays, because of heat capacity of the (upper) ocean.
- (But it is difficult to explain it to non-experts.)
- Mark Maslin (2014) Climate Change : [browsing]
- Important parts from my point of view: Chapter 4 (projection), 5 (impacts), 8 (countermeasures)
- [4 July]
- [11 July]
- [18 July]
- [25 July] (no lecture)
- [1 Aug.] (no lecture) Deadline of the term report (Box in front of the office in the International House).
I will probably come to my office (Building 8, Room 773) in late afternoon,
and visit the International House to collect reports in the evening.
- [8 Aug.] Follow-up lecture
- [10 Aug.] Finished evaluation of term reports.
- [12 Aug.]
- [1 Sep.] My example computer program [co2warming.R] for
[A simple energy balance model of global warming]
had just very crude output capability.
On 1 Sep. 2019, I added another version of the program which produces a graph.
- [16 Sep.] I added R sample programs
[co2warming_write.R] which writes results to a file,
and [co2warming_read_graph.R] which reads the file and makes a graph
to [A simple energy balance model of global warming].
I also revised [co2warming_graph.R].
About the lecturer
- Masuda 増田 (family name), Kooiti 耕一 (personal name)
- Department of Geography, visiting professor
- Office: Building 8, Room 773 (attendance irregular, usually Tue, Thu after class)
- e-mail: ... (a "passive" user)
- Personal web site: http://macroscope.world.coocan.jp
- Discipline: meteorology (part of geophysics)
- Achivements: global energy and water cycle in the atmosphere and the hydrosphere
- Recent interests: climate - society interactions