Mark Maslin (2014) "Climate Change": table of contents

Mark Maslin, (2004, 2009) 2014: Climate Change: A Very Short Introduction (Third Edition) (A Very Short Introduction). Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-871904-5 (ebook ISBN 978-0-19-102912-7).
Publisher's web page about this book [OUP global] [OUP Japan]
(The title of the 1st and 2nd editions were Global Warming.)
{Author's web site at University College London] https://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/people/academic-staff/mark-maslin

List of chapters

1. What is climate change?
2. The climate change debate
3. Evidence for climate change
4. Modelling future climate
5. Climate change impacts
6. Climate surprises
7. Politics of climate change
8. Solutions
9. Envisioning the future

(Detailed) table of contents, with Masuda's notes

Contents
Acknowledgements
Preface to the third edition
Abbreviations
List of illustrations
List of tables
List of boxes
1. What is climate change?
- Contrary to 1st (2004) and 2nd (2009) editions, the term "climate change" is used to mean anthropogenic climate change, and considered to be challenge of the global human society (rather than a problem in natural science).
- The Earth's natural greenhouse
- Past climate
  - Glacial cycles (Here, the term "ice age" is sometimes used to mean "glacial period".)
- Past variations in carbon dioxide
  - In the glacial cycles of the Quaternary, atmospheric CO2 concentration is higher when the global ice volume is smaller. (Fig. 2, p. 5) (Note: page numbers are via Kindle.)
- Early farmers
  - CO2 and CH4 levels in the Holocene (ca. 10000 ago - present) is stable; Ruddiman's hypothesis (controversial): agricultural activities changed the level.
- The industrial revolution
  - Atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1958 observed at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (Fig. 3, p. 7)
- Who produces the pollution?
  - CO2 emission. Major source: burning fossil fuels. From what group of countries? (Fig. 4, p. 8).
- [Box 1] What is the IPCC?
- Summary
  - Outline of the book
    - Chapter 2: The recognition of climate change as a global pollution problem
    - Chap. 3 & 4: Current scientific evidence; How scientists are modeling the future
    - Chap. 5 & 6: Impacts of future climate changes; "Surprises"
    - Chap. 7 & 8: Political aspects; Potential political and technological solutions
    - Chapter 9: Views of future, which depends on our decisions
2. The climate change debate ... (My note about this part is added on 17 July.)
- Historical background
  - Development of the idea of climate change caused by CO₂. Largely following Weart's book Discovery of Global Warming.
- Cold War science
  - Continuation of the history of the development of the idea. The development in 1950s were funded in the USA in the context of the "Cold War". Research on physics of climate itself did not have military goals, but it was part of promotion of basic research which is likely to have military benefits. (In particular, Gilbert Plass studied absorption and emission of infra-red radiation by gases when he was engaged in military research & development (of sensors?), and applied its basics to the problem of climate as well.) [Masuda's addition: Studies of (both radioactive and stable) isotopes in the environment were promoted in connection with development of nuclear weapons in many ways.]
- Why the delay in recognizing climate change?
  - Maslin thinks that the general public could have recognized about the possibility of future global warming perhaps in 1960s, but that it delayed until late 1980s. I think it could be in early 1980s, but I do not think that it could be even earlier. [I am afraid Maslin is in a pitfall of afterthoughts.] But, I agree that the trends in observed downward trend of (global mean) temperature by 1970 moved general public away from stories of warming. The advance of studies of paleoclimate (climate in the geological past) was important in the development of the idea of the climate system. But, I think that, in the 1970s, the prediction based on the orbital theory that a glacial period is coming (in thousands-of-years time scale) helped delay in the recognition of possibility of warming.
- The rise of the enviromental social movement
  - Since 1960s, recognition of environmental issues as social problems grew. [More stories are in Howe's book Behind the Curve.] In 1980s, international political agreements (ban of emission of CFCs etc.) were made for protection of stratospheric ozone. It was helped by the observational fact of the "ozone hole" in the Antarctic. Also note that the configuration of stakeholders is much simpler in the issue of CFCs than the issue of CO₂.
- Climate change and the media
  - Maslin counted how often the issue of global warming appeared in British newspapers, year by year from 1985 to 1997. [I read similar study in Japan by Nagai in the book edited by Sekiya & Segawa (2015) [my note in Japanese].] [Also, with "Google N-gram", I made a graph of the appearance of the phrases "global warming", "climate change" and "greenhouse effect" in books digitized by Google [Link] [My discussion in Japanese]. This does not reflect year-by-year journalistic attentions but slower trends.)] Maslin discusses attitudes of media in UK and USA. [Nagai, as well as Asayama in the same book, have discussions in Japan.]
- The economists wade in
  - Debates on necessity of mitigation (reduction of emission) have often been based on economic analyses of costs and benefits. William Nordhaus keeps doing that, but his opinion has shifted. [His recent book is titled The Climate Casino.] Bjorn Lomborg (book 2001) was skeptic. Nicholas Stern (report 2006, book 2007) turned opinion of the mainstream economists.
- Climategate
  - A scandal broke in 2009. E-mail messages of the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in UK was released illegally. Unlike the Watergate scandal where those who did eavesdropping (supporters of President Nixon) were accused, climate scientists who were "eavesdropped" were "accused" of suspected fraud. Investigations resulted that the scientists were not guilty, but that scientists should take care of traceability of scientific data. [It is not known who released the messages. Presumably they were motivated to delay international negotiations on reduction of emission.]
- Summary
  - How anthropogenic climate change has become known to general public?
  - (1) Development of basic science, by mid-1960s [I do think that Manabe & Weatherald 1965 is essential, but I think that it was mid-to-late 1970s that the knowledge became robust.]
  - (2) Rise of actual global mean temperature, evident in late 1980s
  - (3) Paleoclimatic knowledge of CO₂ and temperature, learned in 1980s
  - (4) Development of modeling on computers, in late 1970s and 1980s
  - (5) Public awareness of global environment, in late 1980s [1980s was really an epoch in the issue of ozone, but I am not sure about other aspects.]
  - (6) Media reports [peaks at occasions of major conferences and IPCC reports]
  - (7) Politicians, economists etc. take the issue seriously, since late 1990s
3. Evidence for climate change ... observed change of the 20th century; detection & attribution
- Weight of evidence
- Recent climate change
- Other evidence for global warming
- What do the sceptics say?
- Summary
4. Modelling future climate ... projection of the climate in the 21st century
- Models
- Carbon cycle
- Warming and cooling effects
- Emission models of the future
- Modelling uncertainty
- Future global temperatures and sea level
- Modelling extreme events
- What the sceptics say
- Summary
5. Climate change impacts ... impacts of projected climate scenarios
- What is dangerous climate change?
- Extreme events and society's coping range
- Coasts
- Storms and floods
- Heat waves and droughts
- Human health
- Biodiversity
- [Box 2] El Niño - Southern Oscillation
- Agriculture
- Ocean acidification
- Summary
6. Climate surprises ... high-impact scenarios with unknown probability (to be discussed briefly at some time)
- Thresholds and tipping points
- Melting icesheets
- Deep-ocean circulation
- Gas hydrates
- Amazon dieback
- Summary
7. Politics of climate change ... international negotiations, mainly at UNFCCC COPs
- Introduction
- UNFCCC
- Kyoto
- [Box 3] UNFCCC negotiating alliances
- Copenhagen
- Post-Copenhagen
- Is the UNFCCC process flawed?
- A unilateral approach
- Carbon trading
- REDD+
- Summary
8. Solutions
- Introduction
- Adaptation
- Mitigation
- Alternative, renewable, or clean energy
- Carbon capture and storage
- Transport
- Carbon trading and offsetting
- Subsidies
- Geoengineering or technofixes
- Geoengineering governance
- Summary
- ... I (Masuda) think that the subject "solution" should be reorganized as follows:
  - Adaptation
  - Mitigation ... mainly, reduction of emission
    - Reduction of energy consumption + Use of energy resources that accompany no (or less) CO2 emission
    - Technologies + Policies (regulation, taxes, subsidies, trading of quota)
  - Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS, considered as part of mitigation) + carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (CDR, considered as part of "geoengineering")
  - Intervention to climate ... mainly, SRM = solar radiation modification (part of "geoengineering")
9. Envisioning the future ... Dr Maslin's normative thoughts which I may or may not agree.
- Introduction
- Planetary limits
- Perfect storm
- Neoliberal myth
- Taking action
- Win-win solutions
- Conclusions
Further reading
Index

2019-Jun-27, 2019-Jul-17
MASUDA Kooiti