National Research Council (1983) "Changing Climate"

• National Research Council, 1983: Changing Climate: Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee. Washington DC USA: National Academy Press, 498 pp. ISBN 0-309-03425-6. (Available online from http://www.nap.edu/catalog/18714/ )

[My memorandum about this book (in Japanese) / 読書メモ] (2015-01-23)

Table of Contents

Copied from the "Contents" of the book, and reformatted. Lists of the front matter and "Annexes" are added.

• (front matter)
  • Notice, ii
  • Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, iii
  • Detection and Monitoring Working Group, iv
  • Climate Research Committee, v
  • Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, vi
  • Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources, vii
  • Foreword /William A. Nierenberg, Chairman, ix-xvi
  • Contents, xvii-xxii

• Executive Summary, 1

• 1. Synthesis /Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, 5
  • 1.1 Introduction, 5
  • 1.2 The Outlook, 9
    • 1.2.1 Future CO2 Emissions, 9
    • 1.2.2 Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, 14
    • 1.2.3 Changing Climate with Changing CO2, 27
    • 1.2.4 Detection of CO2-Induced Changes, 32
    • 1.2.5 Agricultural Impacts, 36
    • 1.2.6 Water Supplies, 40
    • 1.2.7 Sea Level, Antarctic, and Arctic, 40
  • 1.3 Seriousness of projected changes, 44
    • 1.3.1 Specifiable Concerns, 45
      • 1.3.1.1 Agriculture and Water Resources, 45
      • 1.3.1.2 Rising Sea Level, 48
    • 1.3.2 More Speculative Concerns, 48
    • 1.3.3 The Problem of Unease about Changes of This Magnitude, 50
  • 1.4 Possible responses, 55
    • 1.4.1 Defining the Problem, 55
    • 1.4.2 The Organizing Framework, 57
    • 1.4.3 Categories of Response, 57
    • 1.4.4 Reprise, 61
  • 1.5 Recommendations, 61
    • 1.5.1 Can CO2 Be Addressed as an Isolated Issue?, 61
    • 1.5.2 Actual and Near-Term Change of Policies, 62
    • 1.5.3 Energy Research and Policy, 64
    • 1.5.4 Synfuels Policy and CO2, 65
    • 1.5.5 Applied Research and Development, 66
    • 1.5.6 Basic Research and Monitoring, 67
      • 1.5.6.1 General Research Comments, 68
      • 1.5.6.2 The International Aspect, 70
      • 1.5.6.3 Projecting CO2 Emissions, 72
      • 1.5.6.4 Projecting CO2 Concentrations, 72
      • 1.5.6.5 Climate, 74
      • 1.5.6.6 Detection and Monitoring, 76
      • 1.5.6.7 Impacts, 78
        • 1.5.6.7.1 Sea Level and Antarctica
        • 1.5.6.7.2 The Arctic Environment
        • 1.5.6.7.3 Agriculture
        • 1.5.6.7.4 Ecosystem Response
        • 1.5.6.7.5 Water Resources
        • 1.5.6.7.6 Human Health
  • 1.6 Concluding remarks, 81
  • References, 81

• 2 Future Carbon dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 87
  • 2.1 Future Paths of Energy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions /William D. Nordhaus and Gary W. Yohe, 87
    • 2.1.1 Overview, 87
    • 2.1.2 Detailed Description of the Model, Data, and Results, 99
    • 2.1.2.1 The Model, 100
    • 2.1.2.2 The Data, 111
    • 2.1.2.3 Results, 130
    • References, 151
  • 2.2 A Review of Estimates of Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions /Jesse B. Ausubel and William D. Nordhaus, 153
    • 2.2.1 Introduction, 153
    • 2.2.2 Projections Based on Extrapolations, 155
    • 2.2.3 Energy System Projections, 156
      • 2.2.3.1 Perry-Landsberg (NAS), 157
      • 2.2.3.2 IIASA, 157
      • 2.2.3.3 Rotty et al., 159
      • 2.2.3.4 Nordhaus, 160
      • 2.2.3.5 Edmonds and Reilly, 161
      • 2.2.3.6 Other Projections, 162
    • 2.2.4 Projections with CO2 Feedback to the Energy System, 164
      • 2.2.4.1 Nordbaus, 164
      • 2.2.4.2 Edmonds and Reilly, 165
      • 2.2.4.3 CBQ, 166
      • 2.2.4.4 A. M. Perry et al., 167
      • 2.2.4.5 General Comments, 168
    • 2.2.5 A Note on the Biosphere, 169
    • 2.2.6 Projections of Non-CO2 Trace Gases, 170
    • 2.2.7 Findings, 171
      • 2.2.7.1 The State of the Art, 171
      • 2.2.7.2 Likely Future Outcomes, 173
    • 2.2.8 Conclusion, 181
  • References, 181

• 3 Past and Future Atmospheric Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide, 186
  • 3.1 Introduction /Peter G. Brewer, 186
  • 3.2 Carbon Dioxide and the Oceans /Peter G. Brewer, 188
    • 3.2.1 Introduction, 188
    • 3.2.2 The Cycle of Carbon Dioxide within the Oceans, 189
    • 3.2.3 The Deep Circulation, 189
    • 3.2.4 Biological Activity, 190
    • 3.2.5 Deep Decomposition of Organic Matter, 191
    • 3.2.6 Calcium Carbonate, 191
    • 3.2.7 The Chemistry of CO2 in Seawater, 194
    • 3.2.8 Measurements of Ocean CO2, 199
    • 3.2.9 Models of Ocean CO2 Uptake, 202
    • 3.2.10 Future Studies and Problems, 209
    • 3.2.11 Summary, 211
    • References, 211
  • 3.3 Biotic Effects on the Concentration of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - A Review and Projection /George M. Woodwell, 216
    • 3.3.1 Introduction, 216
    • 3.3.2 How Much Carbon is Held in the Biota and Soils?, 217
      • 3.3.2.1 The Biota, 217
      • 3.3.2.2 The Soils, 217
      • 3.3.2.3 Total Carbon Pool under Biotic Influences, 217
    • 3.3.3 Metabolism and the Storage of Carbon in Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems, 218
      • 3.3.3.1 The Production Equation, 218
      • 3.3.3.2 A Basis in the Metabolism of Forests for the Oscillation in Atmospheric CO2 Concentration, 219
      • 3.3.3.3 Factors Affecting Global Net Ecosystem Production, 221
    • 3.3.4 Changes in Area of Forests of the World, 225
    • 3.3.5 The Biota in the Context of the Global Carbon Balance, 229
    • 3.3.6 A Projection of Further Releases from Biotic Pools, 234
    • 3.3.7 Summary and Conclusions, 234
    • References, 236
  • 3.4 The Atmosphere /Lester Machta, 242
    • 3.4.1 Introduction, 242
    • 3.4.2 Changes in Atmospheric CO2 Growth Rate with Time and Space, 243
      • 3.4.2.1 Shorter-Term Variation and Its Possible Cause, 243
      • 3.4.2.2 Longer-Term Variations, 246
      • 3.4.2.3 Change in Annual Cycle, 247
      • 3.4.2.4 Spatial Distribution, 248
      • 3.4.2.5 Isotopic Content of Atmospheric CO2, 249
    • 3.4.3 Conclusions, 250
    • References, 250
  • 3.5 Methane Hydrates in Continental Slope Sediments and Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide /Roger R. Revelle, 252
    • 3.5.1 Methane in the Atmosphere, 252
    • 3.5.2 Formation of Methane Clathrate in Continental Slope Sediments, 253
    • 3.5.3 Effect of Carbon Dioxide-Induced Warming on Continental Slope Clathrates, 256
    • 3.5.4 Future Rate of Methane Release from Sedimentary Clathrates, 257
    • References, 260
  • 3.6 Sensitivity Studies Using Carbon Cycle Models /Lester Machta, 262
    • 3.6.1 Comparison among Different Models, 262
    • 3.6.2 Comparison of Parameters within a Single Model, 263
    • 3.6.3 Deforestation as a Source of CO2, 264
    • 3.6.4 Conclusion, 265
    • References, 265

• 4 Effects on Climate, 266
  • 4.1 Effects of Carbon Dioxide /Joseph Smagorinsky, 266
    • 4.1.1 Excerpts from "Charney" and "Smagorinsky" Reports, 266
    • 4.1.2 Epilogue, 277
    • References, 282
  • 4.2 Effects of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases /Lester Machta, 285
    • References, 291

• 5 Detection and Monitoring of CO2-Induced Climate Changes /Gunter Weller, D. James Baker, Jr., W. Lawrence Gates, Michael C. MacCracken, Syukuro Manabe, and Thomas H. Vonder Haar, 292
  • 5.1 Summary, 292
  • 5.2 Have CO2-Induced Surface Temperature Changes Already Occurred?, 297
    • 5.2.1 Introduction, 297
    • 5.2.2 Requirements for Identifying CO2-Induced Climate Change, 301
      • 5.2.2.1 Climatic Data Bases, 303
      • 5.2.2.2 Causal Factors, 306
      • 5.2.2.3 Relating Causal Factors and Climatic Effects, 311
    • 5.2.3 Attempts to Identify CO2-Induced Climate Change, 313
      • 5.2.3.1 Carbon Dioxide as a Causal Factor, 318
      • 5.2.3.2 Volcanic Aerosol as a Causal Factor, 320
      • 5.2.3.3 Solar Variations as a Causal Factor, 322
      • 5.2.3.4 Combinations of Causal Factors, 324
    • 5.2.4 Steps for Building Confidence, 327
  • 5.3 A Strategy for Monitoring CO2-Induced Climate Change, 330
    • 5.3.1 The "Fingerprinting" Concept, 330
    • 5.3.2 Considerations in Climate Monitoring, 331
      • 5.3.2.1 Statistical Variability and Expectations of Change, 331
      • 5.3.2.2 Initial Selection of Parameters, 332
      • 5.3.2.3 Revision and Application of a Monitoring Strategy, 332
    • 5.3.3 Candidate Parameters for Monitoring, 333
      • 5.3.3.1 Causal Factors, 335
      • 5.3.3.2 Atmospheric Parameters, 351
      • 5.3.3.3 Cryospheric Parameters, 361
      • 5.3.3.4 Oceanic Parameters, 367
    • 5.3.4 Conclusions and Recommendations, 370
      • 5.3.4.1 Priority of Parameters to be Monitored, 370
      • 5.3.4.2 Measurement Networks, 371
      • 5.3.4.3 Modeling and Statistical Techniques, 372
      • 5.3.4.4 Objective Evaluation of Evidence, 372
  • References, 373

• 6 Agriculture and a Climate Changed by More Carbon Dioxide /Paul B. Waggoner, 383
  • 6.1 Introduction, 383
    • 6.1.1 Concentrating on a Critical, Susceptible, and Exemplary Subject, 383
    • 6.1.2 Agriculture and Past Changes in the Weather, 384
    • 6.1.3 The Range of Change in the Atmosphere, 386
  • 6.2 Effects of CO2 on Photosynthesis and Plant Growth, 388
    • 6.2.1 Photosynthesis, 388
      • 6.2.1.1 Rate of Photosynthesis, 389
      • 6.2.1.2 Duration of Photosynthesis, 390
      • 6.2.1.3 Fate and Partitioning of Photosynthate, 390
    • 6.2.2 Drought, 391
    • 6.2.3 Nutrients, 391
      • 6.2.3.1 Nitrogen Metabolism, 392
      • 6.2.3.2 Organic Matter and Rhisosphere Association, 392
    • 6.2.4 Phenology, 393
    • 6.2.5 Weeds, 393
    • 6.2.6 Direct Effects of CO2 on Yield, 394
  • 6.3 Predicting the Changes in Yield that will Follow a Change to a Warmer, Drier Climate, 396
    • 6.3.1 History, 396
    • 6.3.2 Simulation, 403
    • 6.3.3 Summary, 405
  • 6.4 Pathogens and Insect Pests, 405
  • 6.5 Irrigation in a Warmer and Drier Climate, 407
  • 6.6 Adapting to the Change to a Warmer, Drier Climate, 409
    • 6.6.1 Breeding New Varieties, 409
    • 6.6.2 Adapting to Less Water, 411
  • 6.7 Conclusion, 413
  • References, 413

• 7 Effects of a Carbon Dioxide-Induced Climatic Change on Water Supplies in the Western United States /Roger R. Revelle and Paul B. Waggoner, 419
  • 7.1 Empirical Relationships among Precipitation, Temperature, and Stream Runoff, 419
  • 7.2 Effects of Climate Change in Seven Western U.S. Water Regions, 421
  • 7.3 The Colorado River, 425
  • 7.4 Climate Change and Water-Resource Systems, 431
  • References, 432

• 8 Probable Future Changes in Sea Level Resulting from Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide /Roger R. Revelle, 433
  • 8.1 The Observed Rise in Sea Level during Past Decades, 433
  • 8.2 The Future Rise in Sea Level, 435
    • 8.2.1 Melting of Greenland Ice cap and Alpine Glaciers, 436
    • 8.2.2 Heating of the Upper Oceans, 437
    • 8.2.3 Possible Disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, 441
  • References, 447

• 9 Climatic Change - Implications for Welfare and Policy /Thomas C. Schelling, 449
  • 9.1 Introduction, 449
    • 9.1.1 Uncertainties, 451
    • 9.1.2 The Time Dimension, 451
    • 9.1.3 Discounting, Positive or Negative, 452
    • 9.1.4 Perspective on Change, 453
    • 9.1.5 Prudential Considerations, 454
    • 9.1.6 Variation in Human Environments, 455
  • 9.2 A Schema for Assessment and Choice, 456
    • 9.2.1 Five Categories, 463
    • 9.2.2 Background Climate and Trends, 465
    • 9.2.3 Production of CO2, 466
    • 9.2.4 Removal of CO2, 467
    • 9.2.5 Modification of Climate and Weather, 468
    • 9.2.6 Adaptation, 470
    • 9.2.7 Breathing CO2, 471
    • 9.2.8 Change in Sea Level, 472
    • 9.2.9 Defenses against Rising Sea Level, 472
    • 9.2.10 Food and Agriculture, 474
    • 9.2.11 Global Warming and Energy Consumption, 476
    • 9.2.12 Distributional Impact, 477
  • 9.3 Summing Up, 477

• Annex 1: Report of Informal Meeting on CO2 and the Arctic Ocean /Roger R. Revelle, 483-487
• Annex 2: Historical Note /Jesse H. Ausubel, 488-491
• Annex 3: Energy Security Act of 1980, 492-493
• Annex 4: Background Information on Committee Members, 494-496