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\u306e\u3072\u3068\u308a\u3068\u898b\u305f\u3053\u3068(\u672c\u66f8\u3067\u306f\u5358\u7d14\u306b\u7d39\u4ecb\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b)\u306f\u3001\u3061\u304b\u3054\u308d\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u5b66\u8005\u306e\u8996\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u898b\u306a\u304a\u3057\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u601d\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3092\u3053\u3053\u306b\u66f8\u3044\u305f\u304c\u3001\u300e<em>\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u5206\u6790<\/em>\u300f\u306e\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2\u306b\u79fb\u52d5\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u8d64\u4e0a<\/strong> \u88d5\u5e78, 2015: \u5b66\u554f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u300c\u6b74\u53f2\u306eIF\u300d &#8212; \u300c\u672a\u6765\u306e\u4ed6\u8005\u300d\u3092\u898b\u3064\u3081\u308b\u6b74\u53f2\u5b66\u3002<em>\u6b74\u53f2\u306e\u3086\u3089\u304e\u3068\u518d\u7de8<\/em> (<strong>\u4f50\u85e4<\/strong> \u5353\u5df1 \u7de8, \u5ca9\u6ce2\u8b1b\u5ea7 \u73fe\u4ee3 <strong>5<\/strong>, \u5ca9\u6ce2\u66f8\u5e97), 43-67.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5e02\u4e95<\/strong> \u4e09\u90ce, 1963: <em>\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u5206\u6790<\/em>\u3002\u5ca9\u6ce2\u66f8\u5e97\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=4076\">[\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2]<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5e02\u4e95<\/strong> \u4e09\u90ce, 1980: \u308f\u308c\u308f\u308c\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u79d1\u5b66\u3068\u306f\u4f55\u304b\u3002<em>\u601d\u60f3\u306e\u79d1\u5b66<\/em>, No. 124 (1980\u5e7411\u6708), 2-5.<\/li>\n<li>Philip E. <strong>Tetlock<\/strong>, Richard Ned <strong>Lebow<\/strong> &#038; Geoffrey <strong>Parker<\/strong>, eds., 2006: <em>Unmaking the West &#8212; \u201cWhat-If?\u201d Scenarios That Rewrite World History<\/em>. Ann Arbor MI USA: University of Michigan Press. <a href=\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=7144\">[\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2]<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6298\u308a\u304b\u3048\u3057\u306e\u3042\u3068\u306b \u304f\u308f\u3057\u3044\u76ee\u6b21\u3092\u3064\u3051\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n<!--more--><br \/>\n== \u76ee\u6b21 ==<br \/>\n\u76ee\u6b21<br \/>\n\u51e1\u4f8b<br \/>\n\u5e8f\u7ae0 \u6b74\u53f2\u306b if \u306f\u7981\u7269\u3068\u8a00\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3051\u308c\u3069<br \/>\n &#8211; 1. \u7d20\u6674\u3089\u3057\u304d\u54c9\u3001\u4eba\u751f!<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u300c\u4e0a\u5411\u304d\u300d\u3068\u300c\u4e0b\u5411\u304d\u300d\u306e\u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u3042\u306a\u305f\u306e\u4eba\u751f\u306e if \u7269\u8a9e<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u7537\u5973\u9006\u8ee2\u306e\u30cf\u30e0\u30ec\u30c3\u30c8<br \/>\n &#8211; 2. \u6642\u306f\u5206\u304b\u308c\u3066\u679c\u3066\u3082\u306a\u304f<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u30b0\u30c3\u30d0\u30a4\u672a\u7df4\u5b66\u6d3e<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u539f\u56e0\u304c\u591a\u3059\u304e\u308b?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u53ef\u80fd\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u300c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u611f\u899a\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; 3. \u6614\u30dd\u30b9\u30c8\u30e2\u30c0\u30f3\u3001\u4eca\u30dd\u30b9\u30c8\u30c8\u30a5\u30eb\u30fc\u30b9<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u73fe\u4ee3\u601d\u60f3\u306e\u306a\u304b\u306e\u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 21\u4e16\u7d00\u306e\u300c\u305d\u308c\u304c\u672c\u6765\u3044\u304b\u306b\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304b\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3\u306f\u30dd\u30b9\u30c8\u30e2\u30c0\u30f3\u601d\u60f3?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u300c\u8d77\u3053\u308a\u3048\u305f\u3053\u3068\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7b2c3\u306e\u9078\u629e\u80a2<br \/>\n\u7b2c1\u7ae0 \u6642\u9593\u7dda\u3092\u9061\u3063\u3066<br \/>\n &#8211; 1. \u6b74\u53f2\u6539\u5909SF\u306e\u6b74\u53f2<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u30ca\u30dd\u30ec\u30aa\u30f3\u3084\u30ca\u30c1\u30b9\u304c\u52dd\u5229\u3057\u305f\u4e16\u754c<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u7cbe\u795e\u5b89\u5b9a\u5264\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u6539\u5909SF<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u3072\u3087\u3063\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3089\u5909\u308f\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; 2. \u5b66\u554f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u300c\u6b74\u53f2\u306eif\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u30e6\u30fc\u30c8\u30d4\u30a2\u304b\u3089\u30e6\u30fc\u30af\u30ed\u30cb\u30a2\u3078<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u30e6\u30fc\u30e2\u30a2\u8ad6\u6587\u96c6\u300c\u3082\u3057\u3082\u5225\u69d8\u306b\u8d77\u3053\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3089\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u300c\u60f3\u50cf\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u300d\u3078\u306e\u5815\u843d?<br \/>\n &#8211; 3. 60\/70\/80<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u3082\u3057\u3082\u79c1\u304c\u30de\u30fc\u30ac\u30ec\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u30b5\u30c3\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3089&#8230;.<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u3082\u3057\u3082\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u306b\u9244\u9053\u304c\u6577\u8a2d\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3089&#8230;.<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u9244\u9053\u304c\u5148\u304b\u3001\u81ea\u52d5\u8eca\u304c\u5148\u304b<br \/>\n\u7b2c2\u7ae0 1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u67b6\u7a7a\u6226\u8a18\u30d6\u30fc\u30e0<br \/>\n &#8211; 1. \u5927\u9006\u8ee2! \u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6226\u4e89\u53f2<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u5730\u306b\u306f\u5e73\u548c\u3092<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u306b\u95c7\u3088\u843d\u3061\u308b\u306a\u304b\u308c<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u8352\u5dfb\u7fa9\u96c4\u306e\u300c\u8266\u968a\u30b7\u30ea\u30fc\u30ba\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; 2. \u8352\u5dfb\u7fa9\u96c4\u306e\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u5c0f\u8aac<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u3042\u308a\u3046\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u300c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6226\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u305d\u308c\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u3066\u306f\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u5c0f\u8aac<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u300c\u3042\u308a\u3048\u305f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u904e\u53bb\u300d\u306f\u300c\u3042\u308a\u3046\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u672a\u6765\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; 3. \u30ac\u30e9\u30d1\u30b4\u30b9\u5316\u3059\u308b\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u300c\u6b74\u53f2\u306eif\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u8aad\u8005\u53c2\u52a0\u578b\u5c0f\u8aac\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u300c\u8266\u968a\u30b7\u30ea\u30fc\u30ba\u300d\u304b\u3089\u300a\u8266\u968a\u3053\u308c\u304f\u3057\u3087\u3093\u300b\u3078<br \/>\n\u7b2c3\u7ae0 \u30d5\u30a1\u30fc\u30ac\u30bd\u30f3\u306e\u300c\u4eee\u60f3\u6b74\u53f2\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; 1. \u30f4\u30a1\u30fc\u30c1\u30e3\u30eb\u30fb\u30ea\u30a2\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u6642\u4ee3\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u5b66<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u89b3\u6e2c\u306e\u7f60<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; CHAOZTORY<br \/>\n &#8211; 2. \u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3\u306f\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u305d\u308c\u304c\u672c\u6765\u3044\u304b\u306b\u8d77\u3053\u3089\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u304b<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u300c\u3082\u3046\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u300d\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u78ba\u7387<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u6b74\u53f2\u5b66\u304b\u3089\u306e\u53cd\u8ad6<br \/>\n &#8211; 3. \u64cd\u4f5c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u6b74\u53f2?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u300c\u3082\u3057\u3082&#8230;.\u300d\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30c9\u30c3\u30af\u30b9<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3\u306f\u53f3\u7ffc\u601d\u60f3?<br \/>\n\u7b2c4\u7ae0 \u300c\u6b74\u53f2\u306e\u306a\u304b\u306e\u672a\u6765\u300d\u5b66\u6d3e<br \/>\n &#8211; 1. \u30de\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u30fb\u30a6\u30a7\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u3068\u5e02\u4e95\u4e09\u90ce<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u30a6\u30a7\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u304c\u30d5\u30a1\u30fc\u30ac\u30bd\u30f3\u3092\u300c\u771f\u4f3c\u305f\u300d?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u300c\u5ba2\u89b3\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u300d\u3068\u306f\u4f55\u304b<br \/>\n &#8211; 2. \u30d5\u30a3\u30ea\u30c3\u30d7\u30fb\u30c6\u30c8\u30ed\u30c3\u30af\u3068\u4e8c\u3064\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30c0\u30a4\u30e0<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u8cea\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3068\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u6790<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u306b\u898b\u308b\u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3\u306e\u5b9f\u9a13<br \/>\n &#8211; 3. \u30ea\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c9\u30fb\u30eb\u30dc\u30a6\u3068\u5076\u7136\u306e\u79d1\u5b66<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u30af\u30ec\u30aa\u30d1\u30c8\u30e9\u306e\u9f3b<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u3075\u308a\u3060\u3057\u306b\u623b\u308b<br \/>\n\u7d42\u7ae0 \u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u3063\u3068\u591a\u304f\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c<br \/>\n &#8211; 1. \u672a\u6765\u5c0f\u8aac\u306e\u300c\u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u30fb\u30c7\u30a3\u30d5\u30a1\u30ec\u30f3\u30b9\u300d<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u300c\u30ad\u30f3\u30b0\u300d\u306e\u6642\u4ee3<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u305d\u3093\u306a\u3053\u3068\u306f\u8d77\u3053\u308a\u3048\u306a\u3044<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u4eca\u65e5\u306f\u6628\u65e5\u306e\u660e\u65e5<br \/>\n &#8211; 2. \u300c\u672a\u6765\u306e\u4ed6\u8005\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8996\u70b9<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u300c\u672a\u6765\u2192\u73fe\u5728\u2192\u904e\u53bb\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u9061\u53ca\u7684\u4e88\u6e2c<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; \u5893\u5834\u304b\u3089\u7526\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u304b\u3089\u30d1\u30fc\u30c6\u30a3\u3060<br \/>\n\u3042\u3068\u304c\u304d<br \/>\n\u8cc7\u6599\u7de8<br \/>\n &#8211; \u8cc7\u6599(1) \u6b74\u53f2\u6539\u5909\u5c0f\u8aac\u306e\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u54c1<br \/>\n &#8211; \u8cc7\u6599(2) \u53cd\u5b9f\u4eee\u60f3\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u4e3b\u8981\u306a\u7814\u7a76\u66f8<br \/>\n &#8211; \u8cc7\u6599(3) \u8352\u5dfb\u7fa9\u96c4\u306e\u300c\u8981\u585e\u30b7\u30ea\u30fc\u30ba\u300d\u300c\u8266\u968a\u30b7\u30ea\u30fc\u30ba\u300d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8d64\u4e0a[\u3042\u304b\u304c\u307f] \u88d5\u5e78, 2018:\u300c\u3082\u3057\u3082\u3042\u306e\u6642\u300d\u306e\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66 &#8212; \u6b74\u53f2\u306b if \u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306a\u3089 (\u7b51\u6469\u9078\u66f8 0167)\u3002\u7b51\u6469\u66f8\u623f, 257+viii pp. ISBN 978-4-480-01675-1. 20 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dokusyo-memo-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8996","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8996"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8996\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9362,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8996\/revisions\/9362"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8996"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8996"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8996"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}