{"id":8895,"date":"2019-11-28T11:36:02","date_gmt":"2019-11-28T02:36:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=8895"},"modified":"2021-10-06T17:26:59","modified_gmt":"2021-10-06T08:26:59","slug":"heymann-gramelsberger-mahony-%e7%b7%a8-2017-cultures-of-prediction-in-atmospheric-and-climate-science","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=8895","title":{"rendered":"Heymann, Gramelsberger &#038; Mahony \u7de8 (2017) Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Matthias <strong>Heymann<\/strong>, Gabriele <strong>Gramelsberger<\/strong> &#038; Martin <strong>Mahony<\/strong>, eds., 2017: <em>Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science: Epistemic and Cultural Shifts in Computer-based Modelling and Simulation<\/em> (Routledge Environmental Humanities series) (earthscan). Abingdon, Oxon UK: Routledge, 256 pp. ISBN 978-1-138-22298-4 (hardback), 978-1-313-40628-2 (paperback).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2017\u5e74\u306b\u51fa\u305f\u672c\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f2018\u5e7411\u6708\u306b\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u6d0b\u66f8\u5c4b\u306e\u5e97\u982d\u3067\u898b\u3064\u3051\u305f\u3002\u6c17\u5019(\u3068\u304f\u306b\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316)\u306b\u304b\u304b\u308f\u308b\u79d1\u5b66\u30fb\u6280\u8853\u306e\u3042\u308a\u304b\u305f\u3001\u3068\u304f\u306b\u3001\u305d\u3053\u3067\u6570\u5024\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u3048\u3089\u308c\u305f\u77e5\u898b\u304c\u91cd\u8996\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u95a2\u5fc3\u304c\u3042\u308b\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u3001\u305c\u3072\u8aad\u3080\u3079\u304d\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u306a\u304b\u306a\u304b\u8aad\u307f\u3059\u3059\u3081\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u30022019\u5e7411\u6708\u3001\u30e1\u30e2\u3092\u3068\u3089\u305a\u306b\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u304b\u3089\u3001\u8a18\u61b6\u306b\u306e\u3053\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3092\u3001\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3069\u3053\u308d\u7acb\u3061\u3082\u3069\u3063\u3066\u30e1\u30e2\u3092\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u66f8\u306f\u30012010\u5e74\u306b\u958b\u304b\u308c\u305f\u4f1a\u8b70\u3067\u306f\u3058\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3001\u74b0\u5883\u79d1\u5b66\u30fb\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u30fb\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u30fb\u54f2\u5b66\u306a\u3069\u306e\u4eba\u305f\u3061\u306e\u5171\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u6210\u679c\u3060\u3002\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u6587\u79d1\u7cfb\u306e\u5171\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u672c\u3067\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3061\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u30e1\u30f3\u30d0\u30fc\u5404\u81ea\u306e\u554f\u984c\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306b\u3088\u308b\u8ad6\u8003\u3092\u305f\u3070\u306d\u305f\u8ad6\u6587\u96c6\u3060\u3002\u7dcf\u8ad6\u306e\u7ae0\u306f\u7de8\u80053\u4eba\u304c\u5171\u8457\u3067\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5185\u3067\u306f\u5bc6\u63a5\u306a\u610f\u898b\u4ea4\u63db\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7dcf\u8ad6\u304c\u63d0\u8d77\u3059\u308b\u554f\u984c\u306f\u73fe\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u5168\u822c\u306b\u308f\u305f\u308b\u91cd\u3044\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u7d0d\u5f97\u306e\u3044\u304b\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3082\u591a\u304f\u3001\u8aad\u307f\u3059\u3059\u3081\u306b\u304f\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3060\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u5404\u8ad6\u306e\u8a71\u984c\u306f\u3060\u3044\u305f\u3044\u5929\u6c17\u4e88\u5831\u3068\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306b\u304b\u304e\u3089\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u3001\u500b\u5225\u4e8b\u5b9f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u65b0\u3057\u304f\u77e5\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3001\u8a71\u984c\u306e\u985e\u578b\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u77e5\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u304b\u3063\u305f(\u5b9f\u4e16\u754c\u3067\u306e\u89e3\u6c7a\u304c\u56f0\u96e3\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3067\u91cd\u3044\u554f\u984c\u306f\u3053\u3053\u306b\u3082\u3042\u308b\u304c)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3001\u3010 &#8230; \u3011\u306f\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u611f\u60f3\u3084\u9023\u60f3\u3057\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u307b\u304b\u3067\u3001\u3068\u304f\u306b\u3053\u3068\u308f\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3053\u308d\u306f\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306b\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3092\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3070\u3067\u8868\u73fe\u3057\u306a\u304a\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u3066\u3044\u306d\u3044\u306b\u8aad\u307e\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u90e8\u5206\u3082\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u8aad\u307f\u307e\u3061\u304c\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7dcf\u8ad6<br \/>\n1\u7ae0. Introdution (Heymann, Gramelsberger &#038; Mahony)<br \/>\n2\u7ae0. Key characteristics of cultures of prediction (Heymann, Gramelsberger &#038; Mahony)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u4e3b\u984c\u306e &#8220;cultures of prediction&#8221; \u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3070\u306f\u3001\u5358\u6570\u5f62 &#8220;culture of prediction&#8221; \u3067\u3001Fine (2007)\u306e\u6c17\u8c61\u5e81\u306e\u73fe\u5834\u306e\u8077\u54e1\u306e\u50cd\u304d\u304b\u305f\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306eethnography\u7684\u306a\u7814\u7a76\u306b\u51fa\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3002(\u306a\u304a\u3001\u540c\u985e\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u306b\u3088\u308b\u672c\u3068\u3057\u3066 Daipha (2015)\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002) \u6c17\u8c61\u5e81\u306b\u306f\u3001\u300c\u4e88\u5831\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u300d\u3092\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3068\u3057\u305f\u6587\u5316\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u8457\u8005\u305f\u3061\u306f\u3001\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u3078\u306e\u5bfe\u5fdc\u306b\u3082 culture of prediction\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u898b\u3066\u3001cultures [\u8907\u6570] of prediction \u3092\u4e3b\u984c\u3068\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3010\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u3092\u4eba\u304c\u8a8d\u8b58\u3057\u305f\u306e\u306f\u3001\u89b3\u6e2c\u4e8b\u5b9f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u307f\u3068\u304a\u3057\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3060\u304b\u3089\u3001\u305d\u306e\u8a71\u984c\u3067\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u306e\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c\u91cd\u8996\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306e\u306f\u5f53\u7136\u306a\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u3061\u304b\u3054\u308d\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u306e\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u304f\u77e5\u898b\u304c\u91cd\u8996\u3055\u308c\u3059\u304e\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6c17\u3082\u3059\u308b\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u7de8\u8005\u305f\u3061\u306f\u3082\u3046\u3059\u3053\u3057\u5f37\u304f\u305d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u611f\u3058\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u306e\u767a\u60f3\u306e\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3065\u3051\u3092\u76f8\u5bfe\u5316\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u306e\u307b\u304b\u306e\u3069\u3093\u306a\u767a\u60f3\u3092\u3082\u3063\u3068\u91cd\u8996\u3059\u308b\u3079\u304d\u304b\u3092\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u8ad6\u3058\u3066\u306f\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u3060\u3002\u7b2c5\u7ae0\u306eLamb\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u3092\u3055\u304b\u306e\u307c\u308b\u614b\u5ea6\u3001\u7b2c3\u7ae0\u306e\u7406\u8ad6\u91cd\u8996\u306e\u614b\u5ea6\u3001\u7b2c6\u7ae0\u306eheuristic\u306a\u614b\u5ea6\u306a\u3069\u306b\u597d\u610f\u7684\u306a\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306f\u611f\u3058\u3089\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p>\u7de8\u8005\u305f\u3061\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7b2c1\u30fb2\u7ae0\u3067\u306f\u3001cultures of prediction \u3092\u3001\u6c17\u8c61\u30fb\u6c17\u5019\u95a2\u4fc2\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3001\u73fe\u4ee3(20\u4e16\u7d00\u306a\u304b\u3070\u4ee5\u5f8c)\u306e\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u591a\u304f\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3067\u652f\u914d\u7684\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u601d\u60f3\u3068\u307f\u308b\u3002\u5171\u7523\u4e3b\u7fa9\u56fd\u306f\u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u3001\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u56fd\u3067\u3082\u3001\u30aa\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0(1945\u5e74)\u306eCentral Planning Bureau\u306a\u3069\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u8a08\u753b\u3092\u3082\u3064\u653f\u7b56\u304c\u3068\u3089\u308c\u305f\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u300c\u6210\u9577\u306e\u9650\u754c\u300d\u306e\u672c(1972\u5e74)\u3082\u3001\u300cWorld 3\u300d\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u4e3b\u5f79\u306b\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001cultures of prediction \u306b\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u3092\u5236\u5fa1(control)\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u767a\u60f3\u3082\u3075\u304f\u3081\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3060\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u304b\u3089\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5bfe\u8c61\u3092\u5236\u5fa1\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3070\u3042\u3044\u3082 \u3042\u308b\u7a2e\u985e\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3068\u306a\u308b\u304c\u3001\u5236\u5fa1\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u5bfe\u8c61\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u306f\u304b\u306a\u308a\u7570\u8cea\u306a\u3082\u306e\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002(\u5171\u7523\u4e3b\u7fa9\u56fd\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8a08\u753b\u306f\u5236\u5fa1\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u305f\u4f8b\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u5929\u6c17\u4e88\u5831\u306f\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u964d\u96e8\u306a\u3069\u306e\u6c17\u8c61\u4ecb\u5165\u306e\u95a2\u9023\u3092\u4f8b\u5916\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5236\u5fa1\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u5bfe\u8c61\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u4f8b\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002) \u672c\u66f8\u7dcf\u8ad6\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u306f\u3001\u305d\u3053\u304c\u5206\u96e2\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6c17\u304c\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u3001\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u3042\u305f\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304c\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u5236\u5fa1\u306f\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u5bfe\u8c61\u304c\u591a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u4e21\u8005\u3092\u304d\u3061\u3093\u3068\u304d\u308a\u308f\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3082\u305f\u3057\u304b\u3060\u3002\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306e\u3070\u3042\u3044\u306f\u3001\u592a\u967d\u5149\u306e\u53cd\u5c04\u3092\u3064\u3088\u3081\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u4ecb\u5165(\u7b2c10\u7ae0\u306e\u8a71\u984c)\u306f(\u6280\u8853\u7684\u306b\u306f\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3082\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3067)\u8b70\u8ad6\u306e\u5916\u306b\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304d\u305f\u304c\u3001\u6392\u51fa\u524a\u6e1b\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u3092\u3061\u3044\u3055\u304f\u304f\u3044\u3068\u3081\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u53ef\u80fd\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u3066\u304d\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u7d14\u7c8b\u306a\u610f\u5473\u3067\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u3092\u60f3\u5b9a\u3057\u305fprojection\u304c\u304a\u3053\u306a\u308f\u308c\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u307e\u305f\u3001\u300c\u6210\u9577\u306e\u9650\u754c\u300d\u306eWorld 3\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u7b2c6\u7ae0\u306e\u7528\u8a9e\u3067\u3044\u3048\u3070\u3001predictive \u306a\u3082\u306e\u3068\u601d\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u304b\u3089\u898b\u308b\u3068\u305d\u306e\u610f\u7fa9\u306f\u3001heuristic \u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u306a\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3082\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u304c\u3001(\u3042\u308b\u60f3\u5b9a\u306e\u3082\u3068\u3067\u306f)\u8cc7\u6e90\u4e0d\u8db3\u307e\u305f\u306f\u74b0\u5883\u6c5a\u67d3\u3067\u7834\u5c40\u306b\u3044\u305f\u308b\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u306a\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3001\u897f\u66a6\u4f55\u5e74\u306b\u3069\u3046\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308c\u3070\u306f\u305a\u308c\u308b\u306e\u306f\u5f53\u7136\u3060\u3002\u4ed6\u65b9\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u4e88\u6e2c(climate projection)\u306f\u3001predictive\u3060\u3002(\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u3001\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u95a2\u9023\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u7d71\u5408\u8a55\u4fa1\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u300c\u6210\u9577\u306e\u9650\u754c\u300d\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u306b\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001predictive\u306a\u554f\u984c\u306b\u3053\u305f\u3048\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308b\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306f\u3068\u3066\u3082\u3080\u305a\u304b\u3057\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3002)<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7dcf\u8ad6\u306e\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>P. Daipha, 2015: <em>Master of Uncertainty: Weather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth<\/em>. University of Chicago Press.\n<li>G. A. Fine, 2007: <em>Authors of the Storm. Meteorologists and the Culture of Prediction<\/em>. University of Chicago Press.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c1\u90e8 &#8220;Junctions: Science and politics of prediction&#8221;<\/strong>.<br \/>\n\u6c17\u8c61\u30fb\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u7684\u306a\u8a71\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>3\u7ae0. Calculating the weather: Emerging cultures of prediction in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century Europe (Gramelsberger)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u5024\u5929\u6c17\u4e88\u5831\u306e\u57fa\u790e\u306b\u306f\u3001\u307e\u305a\u3001\u8907\u6570\u306e\u5730\u70b9\u306e\u540c\u6642\u523b\u306e\u6c17\u8c61\u89b3\u6e2c\u3092\u5730\u56f3\u4e0a\u306b\u8868\u793a\u3057\u3066\u300c\u5929\u6c17\u56f3\u300d\u3092\u304b\u304f\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u300c\u7dcf\u89b3\u898f\u6a21\u300d(synoptic)\u306e\u73fe\u8c61\u304c\u8a8d\u8b58\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u306e\u3064\u304e\u306b\u3001\u7269\u7406(\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u3068\u71b1\u529b\u5b66)\u3092\u57fa\u790e\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6c17\u8c61\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u5b66\u554f\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u5024\u5929\u6c17\u4e88\u5831\u95a2\u4fc2\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u3067\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u30ce\u30eb\u30a6\u30a7\u30fc\u306eVilhelm Bjerknes\u3068\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u306eRichardson\u3001\u30b9\u30a6\u30a7\u30fc\u30c7\u30f3\u51fa\u8eab\u3067\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u3067\u4ed5\u4e8b\u3092\u3057\u305fRossby\u3070\u304b\u308a\u304c\u91cd\u8996\u3055\u308c\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3057\u304b\u3057\u672c\u7ae0\u3067\u306f\u300119\u4e16\u7d00\u5f8c\u534a\u304b\u308920\u4e16\u7d00\u524d\u534a\u306e\u30c9\u30a4\u30c4\u3084\u30aa\u30fc\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30a2\u306e\u591a\u6570\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u8005\u306e\u4ed5\u4e8b\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u6307\u6458\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002(Bjerknes\u3082\u30c9\u30a4\u30c4\u3067\u5b66\u3093\u3060\u306e\u3060\u3002) (\u306a\u304a\u300119\u4e16\u7d00\u306e\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u4eba\u306eFerrel\u306e\u4ed5\u4e8b\u306f\u5b64\u9ad8\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30c9\u30a4\u30c4\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002) \u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u306f\u3001Helmholtz\u3084Hertz\u306a\u3069\u57fa\u790e\u7269\u7406\u306e\u696d\u7e3e\u306e\u307b\u3046\u304c\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u308b\u4eba\u3084\u3001Julius von Hann\u306a\u3069\u6c17\u8c61\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u7d71\u8a08\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6c17\u5019\u5b66\u306e\u307b\u3046\u3067\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u308b\u4eba\u3082\u3044\u308b\u3002\u307e\u3060\u6570\u5024\u8a08\u7b97\u6280\u8853\u304c\u767a\u9054\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u305b\u3044\u3082\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3001\u5f7c\u3089\u306e\u4ed5\u4e8b\u306f\u3001\u7269\u7406\u6cd5\u5247\u3092\u3042\u3089\u308f\u3059\u5f0f\u3092\u3001\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3068\u3051\u308b\u5f62\u306b\u5358\u7d14\u5316\u3057\u3066\u305d\u306e\u89e3\u3092\u8ad6\u3058\u308b\u3082\u306e\u304c\u304a\u304a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002(\u5f53\u6642\u3064\u304b\u308f\u308c\u305f &#8220;rational mechanics&#8221; \u3068\u3044\u3046\u8868\u73fe\u306f\u305d\u3046\u3044\u3046\u614b\u5ea6\u3092\u3055\u3059\u3088\u3046\u3060)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3010\u308f\u305f\u3057\u304b\u3089\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001Exner\u3084Margules\u306a\u3069\u306e\u540d\u307e\u3048\u306f\u6559\u6750\u306e\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\u3067\u898b\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u8457\u4f5c\u3092\u76f4\u63a5\u8aad\u3093\u3060\u3053\u3068\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u30011950\u5e74\u3054\u308d\u306b\u65e5\u672c\u3067\u6c17\u8c61\u5b66\u3092\u5b66\u3093\u3060\u4eba\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u306f\u3001\u30c9\u30a4\u30c4\u8a9e\u570f\u3067\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u305f\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u3092(\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u3001\u82f1\u8a9e\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3068\u3042\u308f\u305b\u3066)\u8aad\u3093\u3060\u4eba\u304c\u3044\u3066\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u304c1970\u5e74\u4ee3\u306b\u8aad\u3093\u3060\u6559\u6750\u306f\u305d\u3046\u3044\u3046\u4eba\u305f\u3061\u304c\u66f8\u3044\u305f\u3082\u306e\u306a\u306e\u3060\u3002\u4e3b\u3068\u3057\u30661950\u5e74\u3054\u308d\u4ee5\u5f8c\u306e\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u3001\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u3001\u30b9\u30ab\u30f3\u30c7\u30a3\u30ca\u30f4\u30a3\u30a2\u306e\u8457\u8005\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u306b\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3046\u304c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u524d\u306e\u30c9\u30a4\u30c4\u8a9e\u570f\u3067\u3082\u8b70\u8ad6\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u8a71\u984c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u305d\u306e\u540d\u307e\u3048\u3082\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u4e16\u4ee3\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3001\u76f4\u63a5\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u3044\u30c9\u30a4\u30c4\u8a9e\u570f\u306e\u5b66\u8005\u306e\u540d\u307e\u3048\u306f\u51fa\u3055\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3075\u3048\u305f\u3002(\u305f\u3060\u3057Ertel\u306f\u3001potential vorticity\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6982\u5ff5\u306b\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u3001\u3088\u304f\u8a00\u53ca\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002)\u3011<\/p>\n<p><strong>4\u7ae0. Which design for a weather predictor? Speculating on the future of electronic forecasting in post-war America (Christoph Rosol)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6c17\u8c61\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u3001\u7b2c2\u6b21\u5927\u6226\u76f4\u5f8c\u306e\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5408\u8846\u56fd\u3067\u306f\u3058\u3081\u3089\u308c\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30c6\u30ec\u30d3\u64ae\u50cf\u7ba1\u3084\u96fb\u5b50\u9855\u5fae\u93e1\u3092\u3064\u304f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305fRCA\u793e\u306e\u526f\u4f1a\u9577 Zworykin \u304c1945\u5e749\u6708\u306b\u3001USA\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u8853\u7814\u7a76\u958b\u767a\u653f\u7b56\u3092\u3068\u308a\u3057\u304d\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305fVannever Bush\u306b\u3001\u6c17\u8c61\u30fb\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u7814\u7a76\u3092\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\u3001\u96fb\u5b50\u88c5\u7f6e\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30a2\u30ca\u30ed\u30b0\u6280\u8853\u3092\u60f3\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3088\u3046\u3060\u3002Zworykin\u306f\u305d\u306e\u5fdc\u7528\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6c17\u8c61\u30fb\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u5236\u5fa1\u3001\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u30cf\u30ea\u30b1\u30fc\u30f3\u306e\u767a\u751f\u3092\u6b62\u3081\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u671f\u5f85\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Bush\u306f\u3001\u5f7c\u81ea\u8eab\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u7d4c\u9a13\u304b\u3089\u3001\u6c17\u8c61\u306e\u554f\u984c\u306b\u51fa\u3066\u304f\u308b\u975e\u7dda\u5f62\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u306f\u30a2\u30ca\u30ed\u30b0\u8a08\u7b97\u6a5f\u3067\u306f\u3080\u305a\u304b\u3057\u304f\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u7a2e\u985e\u306e\u6280\u8853\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3060\u3068\u8003\u3048\u305f\u3002\u306a\u304aBush\u306f\u6c17\u8c61\u30fb\u6c17\u5019\u5236\u5fa1\u306b\u306f\u95a2\u5fc3\u3092\u3057\u3081\u3055\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>von Neumann\u306f\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u8853\u8a08\u7b97\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u6c4e\u7528\u306e\u3001\u96fb\u5b50\u6280\u8853\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30c7\u30a3\u30b8\u30bf\u30eb\u8a08\u7b97\u6a5f\u3092\u958b\u767a\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001(\u7206\u5f3e\u306b\u3088\u308b\u885d\u6483\u6ce2\u306f\u3059\u3067\u306b\u3042\u3064\u304b\u304a\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u307b\u304b\u306e)\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u306e\u8ab2\u984c\u3092\u3084\u308a\u305f\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u5929\u6c17\u4e88\u5831\u306f\u305d\u3053\u306b\u3046\u307e\u304f\u306f\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3002von Neumann\u306f\u3001Zworykin\u3078\u306e\u8fd4\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u5fdc\u7528\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u6c17\u8c61\u30fb\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u5236\u5fa1\u306b\u8cdb\u540c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u672c\u6c17\u3067\u8ffd\u6c42\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u304b\u306f\u308f\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c17\u8c61\u5e81(Weather Bureau)\u3082\u8a08\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u3066\u3044\u305f\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u52d5\u6a5f\u306f\u3001\u3042\u3089\u305f\u306b\u4f7f\u3048\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u4e0a\u7a7a\u306e\u6c17\u8c61\u89b3\u6e2c\u3092\u3075\u304f\u3080\u5927\u91cf\u306e\u89b3\u6e2c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u51e6\u7406\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u4e88\u5831\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3092\u3042\u3052\u305f\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001von Neumann\u306e\u63d0\u6848\u3092\u3046\u3051\u3066\u3001\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u304f\u6570\u5024\u4e88\u5831\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u306b\u53c2\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>5\u7ae0. A new climate: Hubert H. Lamb and boundary work at the UK Meteorological Office (Janet Martin-Nielsen)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1950\u5e74\u3054\u308d\u307e\u3067\u300130\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3067\u8868\u73fe\u3055\u308c\u308b\u6c17\u5019\u306f\u5909\u5316\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3068\u307f\u306a\u3057\u3066\u3088\u3044\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u3010\u3053\u308c\u306f\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u306e\u72b6\u6cc1\u3002Weart\u306e\u672c\u3067\u3001\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u306e\u72b6\u6cc1\u3082\u305d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8a18\u8ff0\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u307b\u3093\u3068\u3046\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b?  \u305d\u306e\u6642\u4ee3\u3082\u6c37\u6cb3\u6642\u4ee3\u3084\u53e4\u4ee3\u6587\u660e\u306a\u3069\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u306f\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u5909\u5316\u3092\u8ad6\u3058\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u5929\u6c17\u4e88\u5831\u696d\u52d9\u3092\u62c5\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u5b98\u5e81\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u306f\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6761\u4ef6\u3064\u304d\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u306a\u306e\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p>1950\u5e74\u4ee3\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u5909\u5316\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u77e5\u8b58\u3078\u306e\u9700\u8981\u304c\u9ad8\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3002\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u6c17\u8c61\u5b66\u4f1a\u304c\u8a55\u8ad6\u6587\u306e\u61f8\u8cde\u3092\u3084\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002\u6c17\u8c61\u5e81 (Met. Office) \u306b\u3064\u3068\u3081\u3066\u3044\u305f H. H. Lamb\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6a5f\u4f1a\u306b\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u6c17\u8c61\u89b3\u6e2c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u307b\u308a\u304a\u3053\u3057\u3001\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d71\u8a08\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3092\u306f\u3058\u3081\u305f\u3002\u5f53\u521d\u306f\u6c17\u8c61\u5e81\u306f\u305d\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3092\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u306b\u652f\u63f4\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3068\u3053\u308d\u304c\u30011965\u5e74\u3001\u96f2\u7269\u7406\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f Mason\u304c\u9577\u5b98\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u65b9\u91dd\u306f\u3001\u6570\u5024\u5929\u6c17\u4e88\u5831\u91cd\u8996\u306f\u5f53\u7136\u3060\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3082\u3001\u6570\u5024\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c\u91cd\u8996\u3055\u308c(\u305d\u306e\u6210\u679c\u306f\u3059\u3050\u306b\u306f\u51fa\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3060\u304c)\u3001Lamb\u306e\u8ab2\u984c\u306e\u4e88\u7b97\u3084\u4eba\u54e1\u306f\u3078\u3089\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1971\u5e74\u3001Lamb\u306f\u7406\u89e3\u8005\u306e\u3044\u308bEast Anglia\u5927\u5b66\u306b\u79fb\u308a\u3001Climatic Research Unit\u3092\u306f\u3058\u3081\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001\u6b74\u53f2\u3092\u3055\u304b\u306e\u307c\u308b\u6c17\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u3084\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u3068\u4eba\u9593\u793e\u4f1a\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u5b66\u969b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u306f\u3001\u5f53\u6642\u306e\u6c17\u8c61\u5e81\u306eculture of prediction\u304b\u3089\u306f\u307f\u3060\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3067\u6392\u9664\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3075\u3046\u306b\u3068\u3089\u3048\u308b\u3002\u3010\u8457\u8005\u304c\u3044\u307e\u306eCRU\u3092\u3001\u307e\u305f\u305d\u308c\u3068\u6c17\u8c61\u5e81\u306eHadley Centre\u3068\u306e\u5354\u529b\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u3069\u3046\u3068\u3089\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u306f\u3001\u306e\u3079\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p><strong>6\u7ae0. From heuristic to predictive: Making climate models into political instruments (Matthias Heymann and Nils Randlev Hundeb&oslash;l)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u4f7f\u3044\u304b\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u5316\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308bpredictive\u306a\u614b\u5ea6\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u521d\u671f\u306e1960\u5e74\u4ee3\u306b\u304a\u3053\u306a\u308f\u308c\u305f\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u7406\u89e3\u30fb\u6d1e\u5bdf\u306e\u6750\u6599\u3092\u5f97\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3001\u672c\u7ae0\u306e\u8457\u8005\u306f heuristic \u306a\u614b\u5ea6\u3068\u547c\u3093\u3067\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1970\u5e74\u3054\u308d\u3001\u5730\u7403\u74b0\u5883\u554f\u984c\u304c\u56fd\u969b\u653f\u6cbb\u306e\u8ab2\u984c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3068\u308a\u3042\u3052\u3089\u308c\u306f\u3058\u3081\u305f\u30021970\u5e74\u306b\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u304c\u51fa\u305fSCEP\u30011971\u5e74\u306b\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u304c\u51fa\u305fSMIC\u306a\u3069\u306e\u30a2\u30bb\u30b9\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u7814\u7a76\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002(\u3055\u304d\u304c\u3051\u3068\u3057\u3066\u30011965\u5e74\u306bUSA\u306e\u74b0\u5883\u554f\u984c\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u5927\u7d71\u9818\u8aee\u554f\u59d4\u54e1\u4f1a(PSAC)\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u305d\u306e\u90e8\u4f1a\u3067\u4e8c\u9178\u5316\u70ad\u7d20\u306b\u3088\u308b\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u3082\u3068\u308a\u3042\u3052\u3089\u308c\u305f\u3002) SCEP\u306b\u306f\u3001NCAR\u306eWilliam Kellogg\u304c\u53c2\u52a0\u3057\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u6c17\u6e29\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u306e(\u304b\u308a\u306e\u6570\u5024\u306b\u3088\u308b)\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u3092\u307f\u305b\u3001\u305d\u3053\u306b\u6839\u62e0\u306e\u3042\u308b\u6570\u5024\u3092\u5165\u308c\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3088\u3046\u306apredictive\u306a\u7814\u7a76\u3092\u63a8\u9032\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Edward Lorenz\u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306b\u60b2\u89b3\u7684\u306a\u8b70\u8ad6\u3092\u3057\u305f\u3002\u6c17\u8c61\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u521d\u671f\u5024\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u554f\u984c\u3060\u304c\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u5883\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u304c\u304a\u3082\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u3068\u3053\u308d\u304c\u3001\u5883\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\u3092\u3042\u305f\u3048\u3089\u308c\u305f\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u306f\u3001intransitive [\u81ea\u767a\u5909\u5316\u53ef\u80fd \u3068\u3044\u3046\u3079\u304d\u304b?]\u3067\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u305a\u3001\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3068\u5883\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\u304c\u308f\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3082\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u304c\u3055\u3060\u307e\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1978\u5e74(\u51fa\u72481979\u5e74)\u306bGlobal Atmospheric Research Program\u306e\u4f1a\u8b70\u3067\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002Hasselmann\u304c\u60b2\u89b3\u7684\u898b\u89e3\u3092\u306e\u3079\u305f\u3002\u3010\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306e\u5f15\u7528\u3068\u3053\u306e\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u30921985\u5e74\u3054\u308d\u306b\u898b\u305f\u304a\u307c\u308d\u3052\u306a\u8a18\u61b6\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u304f\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u8a8d\u8b58\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u5927\u6c17\u3060\u3051\u306e(\u6d77\u6d0b\u306e\u71b1\u5bb9\u91cf\u306f\u8003\u3048\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u304c\u904b\u52d5\u3092\u8003\u3048\u306a\u3044)\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u304c\u3057\u3081\u3055\u308c\u305f\u306e\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3001Hasselmann\u306f\u6642\u5b9a\u6570\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3044\u6d77\u6d0b\u306e\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3092\u306e\u3079\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u305d\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u306f\u6d77\u6d0b\u5927\u5faa\u74b0\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u958b\u767a\u306b\u3080\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3060\u3002\u5927\u6c17\u6d77\u6d0b\u7d50\u5408\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u60b2\u89b3\u8ad6\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u305d\u306e\u7d0410\u5e74\u5f8c\u306b\u3001\u5927\u6c17\u6d77\u6d0b\u7d50\u5408\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3001\u672c\u7ae0\u306e\u7528\u8a9e\u3067\u3044\u3048\u3070 heuristic \u306a\u5b9f\u9a13\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3001Lorenz \u306e\u3044\u3046 intransitivity \u306b\u304b\u304b\u308f\u308a\u305d\u3046\u306a\u4e8b\u614b\u304c\u307f\u3064\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u8b70\u8ad6\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u60b2\u89b3\u7684\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p>1970\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f53\u6642\u82e5\u624b\u3060\u3063\u305fStephen Scheider\u3068James Hansen\u304c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306a\u308a\u306b\u73fe\u5b9f\u7684\u306a\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306b\u3088\u308bpredictive\u306a\u7814\u7a76\u306b\u3044\u3069\u3093\u3060\u3002\u3010\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u77e5\u308b\u304b\u304e\u308a\u3001Schneider\u306f\u5b9f\u969b\u306bpredictive\u306a\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u4e00\u65b9\u3067heuristic\u306a\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u3084\u308a\u3001\u4ed6\u65b9\u3067\u306fKellogg\u3068\u3068\u3082\u306b\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u5316\u306e\u751f\u7269\u570f\u3084\u793e\u4f1a\u3078\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u8ad6\u3058\u305f\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p><strong>7\u7ae0. How to develop climate models? The &#8220;gamble&#8221; of improving climate model parameterizations (H&eacute;l&egrave;ne Guillemot)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u7ae0\u306f\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u304c\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u6240(\u30d5\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9CNRS\u306b\u5c5e\u3059\u308bLMD)\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u305f\u3061\u3092\u89b3\u5bdf\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u305f\u6210\u679c\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb(\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306e\u5927\u6c17\u5927\u5faa\u74b0\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb)\u306f\u3001\u7a7a\u9593\u898f\u6a21\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3044\u73fe\u8c61\u306f\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u3068\u71b1\u529b\u5b66\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u304f\u76f4\u63a5\u8a08\u7b97\u3092\u3059\u308b\u304c\u3001\u898f\u6a21\u306e\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u73fe\u8c61\u306f\u7d4c\u9a13\u5f0f\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u304f\u8a08\u7b97(parameterization\u3068\u3044\u3046)\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3068\u304f\u306b\u3001\u7a4d\u96f2\u306eparameterization\u3092\u8a71\u984c\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u306f\u3001parameterization\u306b\u671f\u5f85\u305b\u305a\u3001\u76f4\u63a5\u8a08\u7b97\u306e\u683c\u5b50\u9593\u9694\u3092\u3053\u307e\u304b\u304f\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u671f\u5f85\u3059\u308b\u4eba\u3073\u3068\u3082\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>LMD\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u306f\u3001parameterization\u306b\u671f\u5f85\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u958b\u767a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306b\u306f\u3001\u76f4\u63a5\u8a08\u7b97\u306e\u9ad8\u5206\u89e3\u80fd\u5316\u306b\u304f\u3089\u3079\u3066\u3001\u8a08\u7b97\u6a5f\u8cc7\u6e90\u304c\u7bc0\u7d04\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3001\u5bfe\u8c61\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u6d1e\u5bdf\u304c\u3075\u304b\u307e\u308b\u3068\u671f\u5f85\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3001\u306a\u3069\u306e\u9577\u6240\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u3068\u308a\u304f\u3093\u3060 parameterization\u306e\u65b9\u5f0f\u304c\u5931\u6557\u306b\u304a\u308f\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3067\u3001\u8ced\u3051\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3068\u3053\u308d\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u306f\u3001CNRS\u306e\u96c7\u7528\u3084\u8a55\u4fa1\u306e\u3057\u304f\u307f\u304c\u300110\u5e74\u3050\u3089\u3044(\u3081\u3060\u3063\u305f\u6210\u679c\u304c\u51fa\u306a\u304f\u3066\u3082)\u540c\u3058\u8ab2\u984c\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3092\u7d9a\u3051\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u53ef\u80fd\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u4ed6\u306e\u7d44\u7e54\u3067\u306f\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c2\u90e8 &#8220;Challenges and debates: Negotiating and using simulation knowledge&#8221;<\/strong><br \/>\n\u6c17\u5019\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u77e5\u898b\u3068\u793e\u4f1a\u3068\u306e\u304b\u304b\u308f\u308a\u304b\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>8\u7ae0. The (re)emergence of regional climate: Mobile models, regional visions and the government of climate change (Mahoney)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u9818\u57df\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb(regional climate models (RCM)\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u5168\u4f53\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u305d\u306e\u5730\u7406\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u3042\u3064\u304b\u3046\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb)\u306e\u8a71\u3002<\/p>\n<p>RCM\u306f1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u306b\u958b\u767a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002USA\u3067\u306fNCAR\u3067\u3001\u30a4\u30bf\u30ea\u30a2\u51fa\u8eab\u306eGiorgi\u304c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066Penn State Univ. \u3067\u958b\u767a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30e1\u30bd\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\u6c17\u8c61\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092NCAR\u306e\u5168\u7403\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304b\u3089\u5883\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\u3092\u3082\u3089\u3046\u5f62\u3067\u52d5\u304b\u3059\u3053\u3068\u3092\u59cb\u3081\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u8ab2\u984c\u306f\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u6838\u5ec3\u7269\u51e6\u5206\u5834\u4e88\u5b9a\u5730\u306e\u5730\u4e0b\u6c34\u4f4d\u304c\u5c06\u6765\u3082\u4f4e\u3044\u307e\u307e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30a2\u30bb\u30b9\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1995\u5e74\u3054\u308d\u304b\u3089\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u5316(\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316)\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u653f\u7b56\u5f62\u6210\u3078\u306e\u5fdc\u7528\u304c\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u30022002\u5e74\u306b\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u3067\u306fHadley Centre\u306e\u5168\u7403\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068RCM\u3092\u304f\u307f\u3042\u308f\u305b\u305f\u4e00\u56fd\u898f\u6a21\u306e\u6c17\u5019projection\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3092\u653f\u7b56\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306b\u63d0\u4f9b\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Giorgi\u306f\u30a4\u30bf\u30ea\u30a2\u306b\u3042\u308bInternational Centre for Theoretical Physics\u306b\u3046\u3064\u308a\u3001\u300cRegCM\u300d\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u516c\u958b\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306f\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u3042\u3061\u3053\u3061\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u306b\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u305f\u3002\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u6c17\u8c61\u5e81\u306f\u300cPRECIS\u300d\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5354\u529b\u95a2\u4fc2\u306e\u3042\u308b\u5916\u56fd\u6a5f\u95a2\u306b\u63d0\u4f9b\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30c9\u3067\u306f\u3001Pune\u306b\u3042\u308b\u71b1\u5e2f\u6c17\u8c61\u7814\u7a76\u6240(IITM)\u304cPRECIS\u3092\u3001\u305d\u306e\u307b\u304b\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u304cRegCM\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30c9\u3067\u3001PRECIS\u3084RegCM\u306f\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u5316\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u56fd\u306e\u884c\u52d5\u8a08\u753b\u3092\u305f\u3066\u308b\u306e\u306b\u306f\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u5730\u65b9\u3054\u3068\u306e\u653f\u7b56\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306b\u6d3b\u7528\u3059\u308b\u52d5\u304d\u306f\u307e\u3060\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>9\u7ae0. Bellwether, exceptionalism, and other tropes: Political coproduciton of Arctic climate modeling (Nina Wormbs, Ralf D&ouml;scher, Annika A. E. Nilsson and Sverker S&ouml;rlin)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5317\u6975\u570f\u306f\u3001\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7814\u7a76\u304b\u3089\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u304c\u5f37\u304f\u3042\u3089\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3068\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u304c\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u77e5\u898b\u306f\u3068\u307c\u3057\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306f\u304a\u3082\u306b\u3001\u51b7\u6226\u4e2d\u3001\u3053\u306e\u5730\u57df\u3067\u306e\u4eba\u306e\u6d3b\u52d5\u306f\u8ecd\u4e8b\u512a\u5148\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u304b\u3089\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u51b7\u6226\u306e\u304a\u308f\u308a\u3068\u540c\u6642\u306b\u3001\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u3078\u306e\u95a2\u5fc3\u304c\u305f\u304b\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u304c\u9032\u3080\u3068\u3001\u5317\u6975\u6d77\u306e\u822a\u884c\u3084\u3001\u5730\u4e0b\u8cc7\u6e90\u958b\u767a\u304c\u3057\u3084\u3059\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3068\u671f\u5f85\u3055\u308c\u3001\u3055\u307e\u3056\u307e\u306a\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u304a\u3082\u308f\u304f\u304c\u751f\u3058\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u3067\u3001\u5317\u6975\u570f\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u56fd\u969b\u5354\u529b\u4f53\u5236\u304c\u3001\u6cbf\u5cb8\u56fd\u3060\u3051\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3068\u3082\u3063\u3068\u591a\u6570\u306e\u56fd\u304c\u53c2\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3092\u3075\u304f\u3080\u8907\u96d1\u306a\u5f62\u3067\u3067\u304d\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73fe\u5730\u4f4f\u6c11\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u3078\u306e\u9069\u5fdc\u3068\u3044\u3046\u76ee\u7684\u3082\u3001\u304a\u304f\u308c\u3070\u305b\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u91cd\u8996\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>10\u7ae0. From predictive to instructive: Using models for geoengineering (Johann Feichter and Markus Quante)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u5bfe\u7b56\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u610f\u56f3\u7684\u306a\u6c17\u5019\u3078\u306e\u4ecb\u5165\u306fgeoengineering \u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u300c\u6c17\u5019\u5de5\u5b66\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u5bfe\u7b56\u306b\u304b\u304e\u3089\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u3078\u306e\u4ecb\u5165\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u6c17\u5019\u5236\u5fa1\u306e\u767a\u60f3\u306f\u53e4\u304f\u304b\u3089\u3042\u308b\u3002climate engineering\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8868\u73fe\u306fH. H. Lamb\u304c1971\u5e74\u306b\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002geoengineering\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8868\u73fe\u306fMarchetti\u304c1977\u5e74\u306b(\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u5bfe\u7b56\u3068\u3057\u3066)\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c17\u5019\u5de5\u5b66\u306b\u306f\u5927\u304d\u304f\u308f\u3051\u3066\u3001\u592a\u967d\u5149\u53cd\u5c04\u5f37\u5316(\u300c\u592a\u967d\u653e\u5c04\u7ba1\u7406\u300d\u3001SRM)\u3068(\u5927\u6c17\u304b\u3089\u306e)\u4e8c\u9178\u5316\u70ad\u7d20\u9664\u53bb (CDR)\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>SRM\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u6210\u5c64\u570f\u306e\u30a8\u30fc\u30ed\u30be\u30eb\u3092\u3075\u3084\u3059\u3068\u3044\u3046\u63d0\u6848\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002Budyko\u304c1974\u5e74\u306b\u306e\u3079\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3010\u305d\u308c\u304c\u6e29\u5ba4\u52b9\u679c\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u4eba\u5de5\u71b1\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306b\u5bfe\u6297\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3068\u3057\u3066\u63d0\u6848\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306f\u672c\u66f8\u306f\u3075\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3011\u3002<\/p>\n<p>CDR\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u3078\u306e\u9244\u6563\u5e03\u3092\u91cd\u8996\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>SRM\u306e\u3046\u3061\u6210\u5c64\u570f\u30a8\u30fc\u30ed\u30be\u30eb\u6ce8\u5165\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u706b\u5c71\u5674\u706b\u304c\u81ea\u7136\u306e\u5b9f\u9a13\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u304c\u3001\u610f\u56f3\u7684\u306a\u91ce\u5916\u5b9f\u9a13\u306f\u6279\u5224\u304c\u5f37\u304f\u307e\u3060\u5b9f\u65bd\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u5168\u7403\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7814\u7a76\u306f\u6d3b\u767a\u306b\u304a\u3053\u306a\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u305d\u3053\u3067\u306f\u30a8\u30fc\u30ed\u30be\u30eb\u767a\u751f\u6e90\u4ed8\u8fd1\u306e\u5c0f\u898f\u6a21\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u306f\u5927\u80c6\u306a\u4eee\u5b9a\u3067\u304a\u304d\u304b\u3048\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002(\u3053\u306e\u7ae0\u306e\u8457\u8005\u305f\u3061\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u306f\u30a8\u30fc\u30ed\u30be\u30eb\u3068\u5927\u6c17\u5316\u5b66\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u306e\u3042\u305f\u308a\u306b\u304d\u3073\u3057\u3044\u3002)<\/p>\n<p>CDR\u306e\u3046\u3061\u6d77\u6d0b\u9244\u6563\u5e03\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u5c0f\u898f\u6a21\u306a\u91ce\u5916\u5b9f\u9a13 (\u304a\u3088\u3073\u5b66\u8853\u7684\u306a\u3082\u306e\u3067\u306a\u3044\u4e71\u66b4\u306a\u6563\u5e03) \u304c\u5b9f\u884c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u304c\u3001\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7814\u7a76\u306f\u3042\u307e\u308a\u6d3b\u767a\u3067\u306a\u3044\u3002\u751f\u7269\u5730\u7403\u5316\u5b66\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30eb\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u3001\u7269\u7406\u7684\u6c17\u5019\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u304f\u3089\u3079\u3066\u3001\u307e\u3060\u3058\u3085\u3046\u3076\u3093\u767a\u9054\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3089\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>11\u7ae0. Validating models in the face of uncertainty: Geotechnical engineering and dike vulnerability in the Netherlands (Matthijs Rouw)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u7ae0\u306e\u300c\u5730\u7403\u5de5\u5b66\u300d\u306f\u6c17\u5019\u3078\u306e\u4ecb\u5165\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u571f\u6728\u5de5\u5b66\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u305d\u306e\u5206\u79d1\u3067\u3042\u308b\u571f\u8cea\u5de5\u5b66\u3092\u3055\u3059\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u8ab2\u984c\u306f\u3001\u6d77\u5cb8\u306e\u5824\u9632\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u6d2a\u6c34\u3092\u3075\u305b\u3050\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u5316\u3078\u306e\u9069\u5fdc\u7b56\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u8a71\u984c\u306b\u3075\u304f\u307e\u308c\u305f\u306e\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82f1\u8a9e\u3067 model \u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\u3001\u7269\u4f53\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6a21\u578b\u3068\u3001\u8a08\u7b97\u6a5f\u4e2d\u306e\u6570\u5024\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u4e21\u65b9\u3092\u3055\u3059\u3002\u5824\u9632\u306e\u5de5\u5b66\u306b\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u4e21\u65b9\u304c\u3064\u304b\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u6570\u5024\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u767a\u9054\u3057\u305f\u73fe\u5728\u3001\u7e2e\u5c0f\u6a21\u578b\u306f\u610f\u7fa9\u304c\u3068\u307c\u3057\u304f\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u5824\u9632\u306e\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u571f\u306e\u69cb\u9020\u7269\u306b\u3088\u308b\u5b9f\u9a13\u306f\u3001\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u5824\u9632\u7834\u58ca\u3092\u3082\u305f\u3089\u3057\u3046\u308b\u7d20\u904e\u7a0b\u3067\u3042\u308b piping (\u7a7a\u9699\u304c\u30d1\u30a4\u30d7\u72b6\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u6c34\u3092\u3068\u304a\u3059\u3053\u3068)\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6d2a\u6c34\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u306f\u5927\u304d\u306a\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u3001\u30aa\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u3067\u306e\u6d2a\u6c34\u5bfe\u7b56\u306f\u3001data-intensive\u306a\u307b\u3046\u306b\u9032\u3093\u3067\u3044\u308b\u3002\u6c11\u9593\u4f01\u696d\u3068\u516c\u5171\u6a5f\u95a2\u304c\u5354\u529b\u3057\u3066\u3001\u73fe\u5834\u306b\u30bb\u30f3\u30b5\u30fc\u3092\u5165\u308c\u305f\u308a\u885b\u661f\u89b3\u6e2c\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3057\u3066\u5927\u91cf\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u53ce\u96c6\u3057\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u7d4c\u9a13\u3092\u3075\u307e\u3048\u305f\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u3066\u304c\u304b\u308a\u306b\u30ea\u30a2\u30eb\u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u306b\u4f7f\u3048\u308b(\u8a08\u7b97\u91cf\u306e\u3059\u304f\u306a\u3044)\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u69cb\u6210\u3057\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\u3092\u5165\u308c\u3066\u4e88\u6e2c\u8a08\u7b97\u3092\u304a\u3053\u306a\u3044\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3092\u652f\u63f4\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3010\u65e5\u672c\u3067\u3082\u540c\u69d8\u306a\u69cb\u60f3\u306f\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6cb3\u5ddd\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u56fd\u571f\u4ea4\u901a\u7701\u4e3b\u5c0e\u3067\u5b9f\u7528\u306b\u3080\u304b\u3046\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3060\u304c\u3001\u6d77\u5cb8\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u307e\u3060\u5b9f\u7528\u306b\u306f\u9060\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p><strong>12\u7ae0. Tracing uncertainty management through four IPCC Assessment Reports and beyond (Catharina Landstr&ouml;m)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5c06\u6765\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u77e5\u898b\u306b\u306f\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u304c\u3068\u3082\u306a\u3046\u3002risk, indeterminacy, ignorance, uncertainty\u3092\u533a\u5225\u3059\u308b\u8b70\u8ad6\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Shackley\u3068Wynne\u306e1996\u5e74\u306e\u8ad6\u6587\u3067\u306f\u3001&#8221;uncertainty management&#8221; \u3068\u3044\u3046\u6982\u5ff5\u304c\u5c0e\u5165\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u3064\u305f\u3048\u308b\u3046\u3048\u3067\u3001\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u306a\u3093\u3089\u304b\u306e\u5236\u5fa1\u3092\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u7ae0\u306f\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u3064\u305f\u3048\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306eIPCC\u304c\u3001\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u3066\u304d\u305f\u304b\u3092\u8ad6\u3058\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002(\u53d7\u3051\u3068\u3063\u305f\u5074\u304c\u3069\u3046\u4f7f\u3046\u304b\u306f\u8ad6\u3058\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002)<\/p>\n<p>IPCC\u306e\u7b2c1\u6b21(1990)\u30fb\u7b2c2\u6b21(1995)\u306e\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u77e5\u898b\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u306f\u3001\u6ce8\u610f\u4e8b\u9805\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u3079\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c3\u6b21(2001)\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u306e\u6e96\u5099\u6bb5\u968e\u3067\u30011999\u5e74\u3001Moss \u3068 Schneider\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3001\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308bguidance\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u304c\u51fa\u305f\u3002\u3053\u306e\u7528\u8a9e\u4f53\u7cfb\u304c\u7b2c3\u6b21\u3067\u306f\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u306b\u3001\u7b2c4\u6b21(2007)\u3067\u306f\u5168\u9762\u7684\u306b\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c3\u6b21\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u304c\u91cd\u8996\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e(\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3059\u308b\u6761\u4ef6\u3092\u3042\u305f\u3048\u305f\u5b9f\u9a13\u306e)\u7d50\u679c\u3068\u73fe\u5b9f\u3068\u306e\u3061\u304c\u3044\u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u3088\u3044\u3068\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002\u7b2c4\u6b21\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u307b\u307c\u540c\u3058\u6761\u4ef6\u3067\u591a\u6570\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u52d5\u304b\u3057\u3066\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308bmulti-model ensemble\u306b\u3088\u308b\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u304c\u91cd\u8996\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002\u3010\u3053\u306e\u3042\u305f\u308a\u3001IPCC\u306e\u614b\u5ea6\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u308a\u3082\u3001\u591a\u304f\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u304c\u53c2\u52a0\u3057\u305fCMIP\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7814\u7a76\u30d7\u30ed\u30b8\u30a7\u30af\u30c8\u306e\u614b\u5ea6\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001IPCC\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u77e5\u898b\u306e\u4ee3\u8868\u3068\u3057\u3066\u305d\u308c\u3092\u63a1\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3057\u304b\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057IPCC\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u306e\u305d\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306e\u8457\u8005\u306bCMIP\u306b\u3082\u95a2\u4e0e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u4eba\u304c\u306f\u3044\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3001\u540c\u4e00\u8996\u3057\u3066\u3082\u307e\u305a\u307e\u305a\u3088\u3044\u306e\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u306e\u8868\u793a\u306b\u306f\u78ba\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u898b\u7a4d\u3082\u308a\u304c\u8981\u6c42\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3057\u3060\u3044\u306b\u3001\u983b\u5ea6\u8ad6\u3088\u308a\u3082\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u6d41\u306e\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u304c\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u304c\u3061\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u306e\u6570\u91cf\u5316\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u3082\u3075\u3048\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u5b66\u8853\u96d1\u8a8c\u3082\u51fa\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u305f\u3061\u304c\u7d4c\u9a13\u3057\u3066\u304d\u305f\u7814\u7a76\u5bfe\u8c61\u306e\u5206\u91ce\u306f\u3055\u307e\u3056\u307e\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002(\u3053\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3001\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u304b\u3089\u76f4\u63a5\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u3068\u308b\u3079\u304d\u3060\u3068\u8003\u3048\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u4e88\u5bdf\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u516c\u958b\u3055\u308c\u305f\u60c5\u5831\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u3044\u3066\u8ff0\u3079\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002)<\/p>\n<p><strong>13\u7ae0. The future face of the Earth: The visual semantics of the future in the climate change imagery of the IPCC (Brigit Schneider)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u306e\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u4e00\u822c\u306e\u4eba\u306b\u3064\u305f\u3048\u308b\u3046\u3048\u3067\u306f\u3001\u56f3\u50cf\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u3060\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306b\u306f\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u7d75\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3082\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u7d75\u306f\u3001\u60f3\u50cf\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u304f\u4f8b\u793a\u306b\u304b\u304e\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u306e\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u3064\u305f\u3048\u308b\u4e3b\u8981\u306a\u56f3\u50cf\u306f\u3001\u6570\u91cf\u3092\u3042\u3089\u308f\u3059\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u3068\u5206\u5e03\u5730\u56f3\u3060\u3002\u3053\u306e\u7ae0\u3067\u306f\u3001IPCC\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u306b\u3075\u304f\u307e\u308c\u305f\u56f3\u3092\u898b\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3002\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u672c\u6587\u306f\u898b\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3010\u308f\u305f\u3057\u304b\u3089\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u56f3\u304c\u4f55\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u306e\u8aac\u660e\u3092\u5207\u308a\u306f\u306a\u3057\u3066\u56f3\u3060\u3051\u3092\u8ad6\u8a55\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u3055\u3051\u3066\u307b\u3057\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u3001\u56f3\u3060\u3051\u304c\u8ee2\u8f09\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3064\u305f\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u591a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u3078\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3046\u3048\u3067\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306b\u4f55\u304c\u3064\u305f\u308f\u308b\u304b\u3092\u691c\u8a0e\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p>IPCC\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u306e\u4e3b\u8981\u306a\u7d50\u8ad6\u3092\u793a\u3059\u56f3\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3(projection)\u306e\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u7b2c5\u6b21\u5831\u544a\u66f8(2013\u5e74)\u306e\u305d\u306e\u56f3\u3067\u306f\u3001RCP 8.5\u3068RCP 2.6\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u3001\u8d64\u3068\u9752\u306e\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u3061\u304c\u3044\u306b\u7531\u6765\u3059\u308b\u5e45\u3092\u3082\u3063\u305f\u5e2f\u3067\u3057\u3081\u3057\u305f\u3002\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3053\u3053\u3067\u3001\u4e2d\u9593\u306e\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3092\u7701\u7565\u3057\u3066\u5358\u7d14\u5316\u3057\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3068\u3001\u8d64\u3092\u9ad8\u6e29\u3068\u3068\u3082\u306b\u5371\u967a\u3092\u611f\u3058\u3055\u305b\u308b\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306b\u3001\u9752\u3092\u4f4e\u6e29\u3068\u3068\u3082\u306b\u5b89\u5168\u3092\u611f\u3058\u3055\u305b\u308b\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306b\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u3001\u610f\u56f3\u7684\u3060\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>(\u3053\u3053\u3067\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001projection \u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3070\u3092\u3001\u61d0\u4e2d\u96fb\u706f\u306e\u5149\u3092\u3042\u3066\u3066\u305d\u306e\u5149\u306e\u5e83\u304c\u308b\u5186\u9310\u306e\u5185\u5074\u3092\u898b\u308b(\u5916\u5074\u306f\u898b\u3048\u306a\u3044) \u3068\u3044\u3046\u30a4\u30e1\u30fc\u30b8\u3067\u3068\u3089\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u5c06\u6765\u306a\u308a\u3086\u304d\u306b\u306f\u300c\u9a5a\u304d\u300d\u3082\u3042\u308a\u3046\u308b\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u898b\u305b\u306a\u3044\u610f\u56f3\u304c\u306f\u3044\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u3060\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f projection \u306f\u300c\u898b\u3068\u304a\u3057\u300d\u3068\u8a33\u3059\u3082\u306e\u306e\u3001\u3080\u3057\u308d\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306b\u5411\u3051\u3066\u3082\u306e\u3092\u6295\u3052\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u8907\u6570\u56de\u3053\u3053\u308d\u307f\u308b\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u611f\u899a\u3067\u3068\u3089\u3048\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u8457\u8005\u306e\u30a4\u30e1\u30fc\u30b8\u3068\u3061\u304c\u3046\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3002)<\/p>\n<p>\u307e\u305f\u3001\u6e29\u5ea6\u3092\u5206\u5e03\u5730\u56f3\u3067\u3042\u3089\u308f\u3059\u5834\u5408\u3082\u3001\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u304c\u3059\u3059\u3093\u3060\u6c17\u5019\u306f\u3001\u5371\u967a\u304c\u611f\u3058\u3089\u308c\u308b\u8d64\u306e\u3072\u308d\u304c\u308a\u3067\u3042\u3089\u308f\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3010\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u8ad6\u6587\u306e\u56f3\u3067\u3053\u3046\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f\u3001\u6570\u91cf\u306e\u5927\u5c0f\u3092\u8272\u3067\u3042\u3089\u308f\u3059\u3068\u304d\u3001\u5bfe\u8c61\u3068\u306a\u308b\u6570\u91cf\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u306e\u3061\u304c\u3044\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8272\u3092\u304d\u3081\u305f\u306e\u3068\u3001\u305f\u307e\u305f\u307e\u5927\u304d\u3044\u6570\u5024\u3092\u8d64\u3067\u3057\u3081\u3059\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u304b\u3089\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306b\u3001\u6e29\u5ea6\u81ea\u4f53\u3088\u308a\u3082\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u3042\u308b\u6642\u70b9\u3092\u57fa\u6e96\u3068\u3057\u305f\u504f\u5dee\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3053\u3068\u304c\u304a\u304a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u3058\u3085\u3046\u304c\u8d64\u304f\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u306e\u3060\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u4e00\u822c\u5411\u3051\u306e\u30c7\u30e2\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u306f\u8d64\u3092\u610f\u56f3\u7684\u306b\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u5370\u8c61\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u9759\u6b62\u753b\u3067\u306f\u305d\u308c\u3067\u3088\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3046\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u7d04\u767e\u5e74\u9593\u306e\u6e29\u5ea6\u3092\u52d5\u753b\u306b\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u304c\u3060\u3093\u3060\u3093\u8d64\u304f\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u304f\u306e\u306f\u3001\u611f\u899a\u3078\u306e\u3046\u3063\u305f\u3048\u304b\u305f\u304c\u5f37\u304f\u306a\u308a\u3059\u304e\u3066\u3001\u77e5\u898b\u306e\u4f1d\u9054\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f \u307e\u305a\u3044\u3001\u3068\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u611f\u3058\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u7ae0\u306e\u8457\u8005\u3082\u3001\u7406\u7531\u306f\u3061\u304c\u3046\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u305d\u3046\u611f\u3058\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8aad\u3081\u308b\u3002\u3011\u3010\u3082\u3057\u3001\u4f4e\u6e29\u304c\u5371\u967a\u3092\u3082\u305f\u3089\u3059\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3089\u3001\u3069\u3093\u306a\u8272\u3065\u304b\u3044\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b? \u3057\u3070\u3089\u304f\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u3066\u3001\u5371\u967a\u306a\u4f4e\u6e29\u306b\u306f\u9ed2\u3063\u307d\u3044\u8272\u3092\u3042\u3066\u308b\u306e\u304c\u3001\u6570\u91cf\u8868\u73fe\u3068\u76f4\u89b3\u306e\u304f\u3044\u3061\u304c\u3044\u304c\u3059\u304f\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3067\u3088\u3055\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p>\u5bfe\u7b56\u306e\u9078\u629e\u306e\u8003\u3048\u304b\u305f\u3092\u3057\u3081\u3059\u56f3\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u578b\u306e\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u3057\u3081\u3059\u56f3\u3068\u306f\u5225\u306e\u614b\u5ea6\u3067\u3064\u304f\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3010\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u3042\u3052\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u56f3\u306e\u4f8b\u306f\u3001\u6a21\u5f0f\u56f3\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3001\u6570\u91cf\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u4e8b\u60c5\u306e\u3061\u304c\u3046\u70b9\u304c\u304a\u304a\u3059\u304e\u3066\u3001\u3055\u304d\u307b\u3069\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u8b70\u8ad6\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306b\u306f\u7121\u7406\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p>\u6298\u308a\u304b\u3048\u3057\u306e\u3042\u3068\u306b \u304f\u308f\u3057\u3044\u76ee\u6b21\u3092\u3064\u3051\u308b\u3002\u300c\/\u300d\u306e\u3042\u3068\u306b\u57f7\u7b46\u8005\u540d\u3092\u304a\u304e\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n<!--more--><br \/>\n== \u76ee\u6b21 ==<br \/>\nContents<br \/>\nPreface<br \/>\nAbout the authors<br \/>\n1. Introdution \/Heymann, Gramelsberger &#038; Mahony<br \/>\n &#8211; Changing prediction practices<br \/>\n &#8211; The authority of cultures of prediction<br \/>\n &#8211; Goal of the book<br \/>\n2. Key characteristics of cultures of prediction \/Heymann, Gramelsberger &#038; Mahony<br \/>\n &#8211; The social role of prediction<br \/>\n &#8211; The character and significance of computational practices<br \/>\n &#8211; The domestication of uncertainty<br \/>\n &#8211; The degree of institutionalization and professionalization of predictive expertise<br \/>\n &#8211; The cultural impact of predictive practices and claims<br \/>\nPart 1. Junctions: Science and politics of prediction<br \/>\n3. Calculating the weather: Emerging cultures of prediction in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century Europe \/Gramelsberger<br \/>\n &#8211; Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; The prehistory of modern weather prediction (1800-1880)<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Discovering the synoptic scale<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Early attempts at weather forecasting<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; From barometry to hydro- and thermodynamics<br \/>\n &#8211; Primers of modern weather forecasting (1880-1930)<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The global view of the circulation of the atmosphere<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The German debate on a rational mechanics of the atmosphere<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The Austrian school of dynamical meteorology<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion: An emerging culture of numerical weather prediction<br \/>\n4. Which design for a weather predictor? Speculating on the future of electronic forecasting in post-war America \/Christoph Rosol<br \/>\n &#8211; Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; Zworykin&#038;s proposal of 1946<br \/>\n &#8211; Two reactions: Bush and von Neumann<br \/>\n &#8211; A third reaction: Meteorologists<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion<br \/>\n5. A new climate Hubert H. Lamb and boundary work at the UK Meteorological Office \/Janet Martin-Nielsen<br \/>\n &#8211; Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; A changing climate<br \/>\n &#8211; Hubert H. Lamb and the Royal Meteorological Society&#8217;s essay prize<br \/>\n &#8211; Lamb&#8217;s philosophical approach to climate<br \/>\n &#8211; Boundary work at the Meteorological Office<br \/>\n6. From heuristic to predictive: Making climate models into political instruments \/Matthias Heymann and Nils Randlev Hundeb&oslash;l<br \/>\n &#8211; Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; Heuristic and predictive modeling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Climate modeling as heuristic science<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Climate science meets politics<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The problem of climate prediction<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Climate models as policy tools: Towards deterministic modeling<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion: Seeking political relevance<br \/>\n7. How to develop climate models? The &#8220;gamble&#8221; of improving climate model parameterizations \/H&eacute;l&egrave;ne Guillemot<br \/>\n &#8211; Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; Debates on the evolution of climate modeling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The dual structure of the Global Circulation Models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Persistent biases and need for better core parameterizations<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Superparameterization and super-models<br \/>\n &#8211; The overhaul of a parameterization at the heart of the model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Representing surface turbulence, tropical storms, and fair-weather cumulus<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Collaborations between large- and small-scale modeling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; A new parameterization creates disruptions<br \/>\n &#8211; Conceptions of climate models and laboratory cultures<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Parameterization as Achilles&#8217; heel or heuristic tool<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Confidence in the capacity to pick out the essential<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion: Multi-scale practices and cultures of modeling<br \/>\nPart 2. Challenges and debates: Negotiating and using simulation knowledge<br \/>\n8. The (re)emergence of regional climate: Mobile models, regional visions and the government of climate change \/Mahoney<br \/>\n &#8211; Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; The emergence of regional modeling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The search for climatic realism, 1989-1994<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; In search of applications, 1995-2002<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Regional prediction as governmental technique, 2002-present<br \/>\n &#8211; Models on the move: RCMs as traveling code<br \/>\n &#8211; Translation, opacity, and political vision: PRECIS and RegCM in India<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion: Regional modeling and the government of climate change<br \/>\n9. Bellwether, exceptionalism, and other tropes: Political coproduciton of Arctic climate modeling \/Nina Wormbs, Ralf D&ouml;scher, Annika A. E. Nilsson and Sverker S&ouml;rlin<br \/>\n &#8211; Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; Arctic climate change before models<br \/>\n &#8211; The Arctic in early global climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; The birth of &#8220;climate politics&#8221;<br \/>\n &#8211; The sea ice component<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion<br \/>\n10. From predictive to instructive: Using models for geoengineering \/Johann Feichter and Markus Quante<br \/>\n &#8211; Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; The history of geoengineering<br \/>\n &#8211; Proposed methods<br \/>\n &#8211; The crux of experiments<br \/>\n &#8211; Geoengineering in a virtual world<br \/>\n &#8211; Demands on climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; Instructions: Policy advice and economic utilzability<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion<br \/>\n11. Validating models in the face of uncertainty: Geotechnical engineering and dike vulnerability in the Netherlands \/Matthijs Rouw<br \/>\n &#8211; Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; Piping<br \/>\n &#8211; Small, medium, and full-scale physical experiments<br \/>\n &#8211; Relevant knowledge and uncertainties in geotechnical research on piping<br \/>\n &#8211; From experimentation to data gathering<br \/>\n &#8211; Flood Control 2015<br \/>\n &#8211; Relevant knowledge and uncertainties in data-intensive methods and the Flood Control 2015 project<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion: uncertainty as a source of innovation?<br \/>\n12. Tracing uncertainty management through four IPCC Assessment Reports and beyond \/Catharina Landstr&ouml;m<br \/>\n &#8211; Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Intriguing remarks<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; A science studies point of departure<br \/>\n &#8211; FAR and SAR revisited<br \/>\n &#8211; TAR and AR4 extending uncertainty management<br \/>\n &#8211; Bringing rigor to uncertainty management with frequentist and Bayesian production of PDFs<br \/>\n &#8211; Model-based uncertainty analysis beyond the IPCC<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusions and suggestions for future research<br \/>\n13. The future face of the Earth: The visual semantics of the future in the climate change imagery of the IPCC \/Brigit Schneider<br \/>\n &#8211; Visions of the future<br \/>\n &#8211; Futuristic image types<br \/>\n &#8211; With our backs to the future<br \/>\n &#8211; In the triptych of scenario curves<br \/>\n &#8211; Burning worlds, or the aesthetics of heat and alarm<br \/>\n &#8211; Blue is hope &#8212; space for opportunity and life paths<br \/>\n &#8211; Data images as associative spaces<br \/>\nIndex<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Matthias Heymann, Gabriele Gramelsberger &#038; Martin Mahony, eds., 2017: Cultures of Prediction in Atmospher [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dokusyo-memo-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8895"}],"version-history":[{"count":30,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8895\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10652,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8895\/revisions\/10652"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}