{"id":7144,"date":"2016-12-24T19:20:19","date_gmt":"2016-12-24T10:20:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=7144"},"modified":"2020-01-05T21:50:10","modified_gmt":"2020-01-05T12:50:10","slug":"tetlock-lebow-parker-%e7%b7%a8-2006-unmaking-the-west-what-if-scenarios-that-rewrite-world-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=7144","title":{"rendered":"Tetlock, Lebow &#038; Parker \u7de8 (2006) Unmaking the West &#8212; &#8220;What-If?&#8221; Scenarios That Rewrite World History"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Philip E. <strong>Tetlock<\/strong>, Richard Ned <strong>Lebow<\/strong> &#038; Geoffrey <strong>Parker<\/strong>, eds., 2006: <em>Unmaking the West &#8212; &#8220;What-If?&#8221; Scenarios That Rewrite World History<\/em>. Ann Arbor MI USA: University of Michigan Press, 415 pp. ISBN 978-0-472-03143-6 (pbk.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2016\u5e7411\u6708\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u6d0b\u66f8\u5c4b\u306e\u4e16\u754c\u53f2\u306e\u68da\u3092\u306a\u304c\u3081\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3001Parker (2013)\u306e\u672c\u3092\u898b\u3064\u3051\u305f\u3002\u984c\u540d\u3092\u898b\u308b\u3068\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u5909\u5316\u304c\u4eba\u9593\u793e\u4f1a\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u306b\u304a\u3088\u307c\u3057\u305f\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u8ad6\u3058\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u6b63\u9762\u306e\u95a2\u5fc3\u306b\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u305d\u308c\u3068\u306f\u5225\u306b\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u300c\u6b74\u53f2\u306e\u3082\u3057\u3082\u300d\u306b\u3082\u95a2\u5fc3\u304c\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3001\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u3067\u3044\u3061\u3070\u3093\u6c17\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u304c\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u9396\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u3092\u3068\u3089\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3089\u3069\u3046\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u95a2\u5fc3\u304c17\u4e16\u7d00\u306b\u5411\u3044\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057900\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u3082\u306e\u672c\u3092\u8cb7\u3063\u3066\u3082\u8aad\u3081\u305d\u3046\u3082\u306a\u3044\u3002\u540c\u3058\u8457\u8005\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3082\u3063\u3068\u77ed\u3044\u8457\u4f5c\u3092\u3055\u304d\u306b\u8aad\u307f\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3063\u3066\u3001\u691c\u7d22\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u3046\u3057\u305f\u3089\u3001\u306a\u3093\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u5b66\u8005\u306f\u300c\u6b74\u53f2\u306e\u3082\u3057\u3082\u300d\u3092\u6b63\u9762\u304b\u3089\u8ad6\u3058\u305f\u672c\u306e\u7de8\u8005\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u306e\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u306e\u672c\u306f\u3042\u3068\u307e\u308f\u3057\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3001\u3053\u3061\u3089\u3092\u3055\u3063\u305d\u304f\u6ce8\u6587\u3057\u3066\u300112\u6708\u4e2d\u306b\u8aad\u3093\u3060\u3002<br \/>\n\u8aad\u3093\u3060\u5370\u8c61\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001\u300c\u6b74\u53f2\u306e\u3082\u3057\u3082\u300d\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u4e00\u822c\u8ad6\u3068\u3057\u3066\u7406\u89e3\u304c\u9032\u3093\u3060\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6c17\u306f\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u4e8b\u4f8b\u306e\u6f14\u7fd2\u306f\u3067\u304d\u305f\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6c17\u304c\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u306a\u304a\u3001\u5ca9\u6ce2\u8b1b\u5ea7\u300c\u73fe\u4ee3\u300d\u306e\u8d64\u4e0a(2015)\u306e\u8ad6\u8003(\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u3053\u306e\u672c\u3082\u300c\u6b74\u53f2\u306e\u3082\u3057\u3082\u300d\u3078\u306e\u95a2\u5fc3\u3067\u8cb7\u3063\u305f\u306b\u3082\u304b\u304b\u308f\u3089\u305a\u307e\u3060\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f)\u3067\u3082\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u3092\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u306b\u3042\u3052\u3066\u8ad6\u3058\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002(\u307e\u305f\u3001\u8d64\u4e0a(2015)\u306f\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u5e02\u4e95(1963)\u306e\u672c\u306b\u3082\u3075\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3044\u3064\u304b\u3042\u3089\u305f\u3081\u3066\u8ad6\u3058\u305f\u3044\u3002)<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u66f8\u306eAcknowledgments\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u30011997\u5e743\u6708\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8005\u3067\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u306e\u6c7a\u65ad\u306e\u5fc3\u7406\u306a\u3069\u3092\u5c02\u9580\u3068\u3059\u308bTetlock\u304cOhio State University \u306b\u7740\u4efb\u3057\u3066\u3001\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684(counterfactual)\u306a\u601d\u8003\u5b9f\u9a13\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8a71\u3057\u305f\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3001\u6b74\u53f2\u5b66\u8005\u306eParker\u304c\u95a2\u5fc3\u3092\u3082\u3061\u3001\u5b66\u5185\u306e\u5b66\u969b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u30bb\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc\u9577\u3060\u3063\u305f\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8005\u306eLebow\u3092\u307e\u304d\u3053\u3093\u3067\u5171\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u3092\u4f01\u753b\u3057\u30011997\u5e7411\u6708\u306b&#8221;Alternative Histories of the Rise of the West&#8221; \u3068\u3044\u3046\u984c\u76ee\u306e3\u65e5\u9593\u306e\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30d7\u3092\u958b\u3044\u305f\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u306f\u305d\u3053\u3067\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u3092\u3082\u3068\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u51fa\u7248\u306f2006\u5e74\u3067\u3001\u4f1a\u5408\u304b\u30899\u5e74\u307b\u3069\u304b\u304b\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u305d\u306e\u3042\u3044\u3060\u306bTetlock\u3068Lebow\u306f\u4ed6\u306e\u5927\u5b66\u306b\u79fb\u3063\u305f\u3002\u8b70\u8ad6\u306e\u5185\u5bb9\u3082\u4f1a\u5408\u5f53\u6642\u306e\u307e\u307e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3055\u305d\u3046\u3060\u304c\u3001\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5909\u5316\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304b\u306f\u308f\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5171\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u306f\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u3067\u306f19-20\u4e16\u7d00\u306b\u897f\u6d0b(\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u304a\u3088\u3073\u305d\u306e\u690d\u6c11\u5730\u3060\u3063\u305f\u5317\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab)\u304c\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u8987\u6a29\u3092\u306b\u304e\u3063\u305f(\u300c\u8987\u6a29\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8868\u73fe\u306f\u672c\u66f8\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3060\u304c)\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u305d\u3046\u306a\u3089\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u897f\u6d0b\u304c\u8987\u6a29\u3092\u306b\u304e\u3063\u305f\u539f\u56e0\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u7d50\u8ad6\u3092\u51fa\u305d\u3046\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3069\u3061\u3089\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3048\u3070\u3001\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u6b74\u53f2\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306e\u610f\u7fa9\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u4e3b\u76ee\u7684\u306a\u306e\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30e1\u30f3\u30d0\u30fc\u306b\u306f\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8005\u306a\u3069\u306e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8005\u3001\u6b74\u53f2\u5b66\u8005\u3001\u53e4\u5178\u5b66\u8005(\u6b74\u53f2\u3068\u6587\u5b66\u3068\u54f2\u5b66\u304c\u672a\u5206\u5316\u306a\u306e\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046)\u304c\u307e\u3058\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002(\u751f\u307e\u308c\u305f\u56fd\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306f\u5b66\u6b74\u304b\u3089\u63a8\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u3068) Parker\u3068Yates\u306f\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u3001Herwig\u306f\u30c9\u30a4\u30c4\u3001Mokyr\u306f\u30a4\u30b9\u30e9\u30a8\u30eb\u3001\u4ed6\u306e\u4eba\u306f\u307f\u306a\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u80b2\u3061\u306e\u3088\u3046\u3060\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u8a71\u984c\u9078\u629e\u3092\u898b\u3066\u3001\u610f\u8b58\u7684\u306b\u7570\u6587\u5316\u3067\u3042\u308b\u6771\u6d0b\u306b\u53d6\u308a\u7d44\u3093\u3067\u3044\u308bYates\u3084Pomeranz\u3092\u5225\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u80b2\u3061\u306e\u4eba\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u8a8d\u8b58\u306f\u53e4\u4ee3\u30ae\u30ea\u30b7\u30e3\u30fb\u30ed\u30fc\u30de\u30fb\u521d\u671f\u30ad\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u6559\u3068\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u53f2\u3068\u306b\u504f\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u611f\u3058\u3089\u308c\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u6b74\u53f2(\u4e8b\u5b9f\u306b\u53cd\u3059\u308b\u4eee\u5b9a\u3092\u304a\u3044\u3066\u305d\u306e\u3082\u3068\u3067\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u3092\u60f3\u50cf\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3053\u3068)\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u591a\u304f\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u5b66\u8005\u306f\u3001\u5b66\u554f\u306b\u306f\u306a\u308a\u3048\u306a\u3044\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3001\u8a71\u984c\u306b\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002\u305d\u3046\u3044\u3046\u614b\u5ea6\u306e\u5178\u578b\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306fCarr (1961)\u306e\u8b1b\u6f14\u304c\u3042\u308b[\u6ce8]\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8005\u306a\u3069\u306e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8005\u306f\u3001\u3042\u308b\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u6709\u52b9\u6027\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3001\u300c\u3082\u3057\u305d\u306e\u653f\u7b56\u3092\u3068\u3089\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3069\u3046\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u304b\u300d\u3092\u8003\u3048\u306a\u3044\u308f\u3051\u306b\u3044\u304b\u306a\u3044\u3002\u7de8\u8005\u305f\u3061\u306f\u3001\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u4eee\u5b9a\u306b\u3001\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3059\u304e\u3001\u8457\u8005\u306e\u4e3b\u5f35\u306b\u3064\u3054\u3046\u306e\u3088\u3044\u3082\u306e\u304c\u9078\u3070\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3078\u306e\u6b6f\u6b62\u3081\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6839\u672c\u7684\u554f\u984c\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u8a8d\u3081\u308b\u3002\u305d\u306e\u5bfe\u7b56\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u300c\u6700\u5c0f\u9650\u306e\u66f8\u304d\u304b\u3048\u300d\u306a\u3069\u306e\u30eb\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u300c\u6700\u5c0f\u9650\u306e\u66f8\u304d\u304b\u3048\u300d\u3068\u306f\u3001\u3042\u308b\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306e\u6642\u70b9[\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u7528\u8a9e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304c\u300c\u5206\u5c90\u70b9\u300d\u3068\u547c\u3093\u3067\u304a\u304f]\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u4e8b\u5b9f\u3092\u66f8\u304d\u304b\u3048\u305f\u306a\u3089\u3070\u305d\u3053\u304b\u3089\u56e0\u679c\u9023\u9396\u3092\u305f\u3069\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u306e\u4e8b\u5b9f\u3092\u306a\u308b\u3079\u304f\u73fe\u5b9f\u3069\u304a\u308a\u306b\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u305f\u3069\u308b\u306b\u3064\u308c\u3066\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u304c\u7d2f\u7a4d\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>[\u6ce8] Tetlock\u3068Parker\u306b\u3088\u308b\u672c\u66f8\u7b2c1\u7ae0\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306b\u5bfe\u6297\u3059\u308b\u8b70\u8ad6\u306e\u308f\u304d\u7b4b\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001Carr\u81ea\u8eab\u3082\u3001\u7b2c2\u6b21\u5927\u6226\u524d\u304b\u3089\u6226\u4e2d\u306b\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u5916\u52d9\u7701\u306e\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30f3\u3068\u3057\u3066Hitler\u3078\u306e\u5ba5\u548c\u7b56\u3084Stalin\u3078\u306e\u5ba5\u548c\u7b56\u3092\u63d0\u5531\u3057\u305f\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u6570\u5e74\u5f8c\u306b\u8a00\u3044\u308f\u3051\u3057\u305f\u5834\u9762\u3067\u306f\u3001\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u4eee\u5b9a\u306e\u8ad6\u6cd5\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u3001\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4e16\u306e\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u6b74\u53f2\u306b\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3061\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u304c\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u5404\u8ad6\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u3082\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u6226\u95d8\u306a\u3069\u306e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u306e\u5e30\u7d50\u304c\u3061\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3089&#8230;\u3068\u304b\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u4eba\u7269\u304c\u3044\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u30fb\u65e9\u304f\u6b7b\u3093\u3060\u30fb\u9006\u306b\u9577\u751f\u304d\u3057\u305f\u3089&#8230;\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306a\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u591a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305f\u3060\u3057Mokyr (\u7b2c10\u7ae0)\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u306f\u79d1\u5b66\u30fb\u6280\u8853\u306a\u3069\u306e\u4eba\u3073\u3068\u304c\u5171\u6709\u3059\u308b\u77e5\u8b58\u306b\u3001Pomeranz (\u7b2c9\u7ae0)\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u306f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306b\u52a0\u3048\u3066\u3001\u5730\u4e0b\u8cc7\u6e90\u306a\u3069\u306e\u81ea\u7136\u6761\u4ef6\u3084\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\u306b\u6ce8\u76ee\u3057\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3084\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u4eba\u7269\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3084\u4eba\u7269\u306b\u6ce8\u76ee\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u3001\u7de8\u8005(Parker &#038; Tetlock)\u306f\u3001\u307e\u3068\u3081\u306e12\u7ae0\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u3001\u540c\u3058\u984c\u6750\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3061\u304c\u3063\u305f\u610f\u898b\u3092\u3082\u3064Hanson (\u7b2c2\u7ae0)\u3068Strauss (\u7b2c3\u7ae0)\u3092\u5bfe\u6bd4\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u6307\u6458\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u6b74\u53f2\u304c\u3001\u5206\u5c90\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u56e0\u679c\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u91cd\u306d\u308b\u306b\u3064\u308c\u3066\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u304b\u3089\u3069\u3093\u3069\u3093\u96e2\u308c\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u4eba\u306f\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3084\u4eba\u7269\u306b\u3053\u3060\u308f\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308b(\u4f8b\u3001Hanson)\u3002\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\u3068\u3053\u308d\u306b\u96c6\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u4eba\u306f\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3084\u4eba\u7269\u306b\u3042\u307e\u308a\u3053\u3060\u308f\u3089\u306a\u3044(\u4f8b\u3001Strauss)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u3092\u8aad\u3093\u3060\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u3001\u95a2\u9023\u306f\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u5c11\u3057\u3061\u304c\u3046\u8003\u3048\u3092\u6301\u3063\u305f\u3002Hanson\u3082\u3001Strauss\u3082\u3001\u3042\u308a\u3048\u305f\u6b74\u53f2\u3092\u3001\u5206\u5c90\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u591a\u6570\u306e\u7b4b\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u6d41\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3068\u3089\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002(\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u6b74\u53f2\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u306e\u304c\u5acc\u3044\u306a\u4eba\u306e\u767a\u60f3\u306f\u3061\u304c\u3046\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002) <\/p>\n<p>Hanson (\u5225\u306e\u4e8b\u4f8b\u3092\u6271\u3063\u305f\u7b2c6\u7ae0\u306eGoldstone\u3082\u540c\u69d8)\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u304c\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u4f4e\u3044\u7279\u6b8a\u306a\u7b4b\u3060\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3002\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u7d4c\u904e\u304c\u3061\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308c\u3070\u3001\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306b\u5c5e\u3059\u308b\u7b4b\u304c\u5b9f\u73fe\u3059\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u306f\u3001Hanson\u3068Goldstone\u306f\u3044\u305a\u308c\u3082\u3001\u8fd1\u4ee3\u897f\u6d0b\u306e\u7279\u5fb4\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3001\u8d77\u696d\u306e\u81ea\u7531\u3001\u5b66\u554f\u306e\u81ea\u7531\u3092\u91cd\u8996\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u305d\u308d\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u306f\u8d77\u304d\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002Hanson\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u305d\u306e\u6e90\u6d41\u306f\u7d00\u5143\u524d5\u4e16\u7d00\u306e\u30a2\u30c6\u30cd\u306b\u306f\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304c\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u4ed6\u306e\u5f37\u3044\u52e2\u529b\u306f\u3044\u305a\u308c\u3082\u5c02\u5236\u7684\u5e1d\u56fd\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002Goldstone\u306b\u3088\u308c\u307017\u4e16\u7d00\u306b\u305d\u308c\u306f\u300c\u540d\u8a89\u9769\u547d\u300d\u3092\u306a\u3057\u3068\u3052\u305f\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u306b\u306f\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304c\u305d\u306e\u4ed6\u306e\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u306f\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308c\u30d7\u30ed\u30c6\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u3042\u308c\u6559\u6761\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002\u5f7c\u3089\u306f\u3001\u30a2\u30c6\u30cd\u3084\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u3082\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u4e8b\u60c5\u304c\u3061\u304c\u3048\u3070\u81ea\u7531\u306e\u306a\u3044\u793e\u4f1a\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3001\u305d\u3046\u3059\u308b\u3068\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u3069\u3053\u306b\u3082\u8fd1\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u306f\u3067\u304d\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u65b9\u3001Hanson\u306b\u53cd\u8ad6\u3057\u305f\u7b2c3\u7ae0\u306eStrauss\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u304c\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306b\u5c5e\u3059\u308b\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3001\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u7d4c\u904e\u304c\u3061\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3082\u3084\u306f\u308a\u305d\u306e\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u306e\u7b4b\u304c\u5b9f\u73fe\u3059\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3002\u30a2\u30c6\u30cd\u304c\u3060\u3081\u3067\u3082\u30ae\u30ea\u30b7\u30e3\u306e\u3069\u3053\u304b\u3067\u3001\u30ae\u30ea\u30b7\u30e3\u304c\u3060\u3081\u3067\u3082\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u3069\u3053\u304b\u3067\u3001\u5c02\u5236\u7684\u5e1d\u56fd\u3067\u306a\u3044\u793e\u4f1a\u306e\u3057\u304f\u307f\u3082\u3001\u8fd1\u4ee3\u79d1\u5b66\u306e\u6e90\u6d41\u3068\u306a\u308b\u53e4\u4ee3\u306e\u5b66\u8853\u3082\u3001\u767a\u9054\u3067\u304d\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3046\u3044\u3046\u8003\u3048\u306e\u3061\u304c\u3044\u306f\u3001\u3069\u3061\u3089\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u304b\u5224\u65ad\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3055\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3002\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u6b74\u53f2\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u304c\u3001\u5404\u4eba\u304b\u3063\u3066\u306a\u4e3b\u5f35\u306e\u8a00\u3044\u3063\u3071\u306a\u3057\u306b\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001\u610f\u898b\u304c\u304b\u306a\u308a\u3061\u304c\u3046\u4eba\u3068\u306e\u610f\u8b58\u7684\u306a\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u696d\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u897f\u6d0b\u306e\u52c3\u8208\u300d\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u3092\u7d4c\u305f<strong>Tetlock\u3068Parker<\/strong> (<strong>\u7b2c1\u7ae0<\/strong>)\u306b\u3088\u308b\u304a\u304a\u307e\u304b\u306a\u8a8d\u8b58\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u897f\u66a61500\u5e74\u3054\u308d\u307e\u3067\u306b\u306f\u3001\u897f\u6d0b\u304c\u300c\u52c3\u8208\u3057\u306a\u3044\u300d\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306f\u305f\u304f\u3055\u3093\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u5f8c\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u304b\u3089\u306f\u305a\u308c\u308b\u306e\u306f\u8907\u6570\u306e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u306e\u9023\u9396\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<li>1800\u5e74\u3054\u308d\u4ee5\u5f8c\u306f\u3001\u897f\u6d0b\u306e\u52c3\u8208\u3092\u6b62\u3081\u3089\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3088\u3044\u5f62\u3001\u3082\u3063\u3068\u60aa\u3044\u5f62\u306f\u3042\u308a\u3046\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u304b\u3089<strong>\u5404\u8ad6<\/strong>\u3002\u30e1\u30e2\u306f\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u6c17\u306b\u304b\u304b\u3063\u305f\u70b9\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u5fc5\u305a\u3057\u3082\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u306e\u3042\u308b\u8981\u7d04\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c1\u90e8<\/strong>(\u7b2c2-4\u7ae0)\u306f\u897f\u6d0b\u53e4\u4ee3\u3002\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u7b2c2\u30fb3\u7ae0\u306f\u3001\u53e4\u4ee3\u30ae\u30ea\u30b7\u30e3\u6587\u660e\u306e\u5b58\u7acb\u3092\u6271\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c2\u7ae0<\/strong>\u306e<strong>Hanson<\/strong>\u306f\u3001\u30ae\u30ea\u30b7\u30e3\u3068\u30da\u30eb\u30b7\u30e3\u306e\u6226\u3044\u3001\u3068\u304f\u306b\u7d00\u5143\u524d480\u5e74\u306eSalamis\u306e\u6d77\u6226\u3092turning point\u3060\u3068\u898b\u308b\u3002(\u30ae\u30ea\u30b7\u30e3\u306e\u52dd\u5229\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3067\u306f\u7fcc\u5e74\u306ePlataea\u306e\u9678\u6226\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u3060\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u65b9\u5411\u306fSalamis\u3067\u5b9a\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3068\u898b\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002)<br \/>\n\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u30c6\u30df\u30b9\u30c8\u30af\u30ec\u30b9\u304c\u3044\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3089\u3001Salamis\u3067\u6226\u3046\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5224\u65ad\u304c\u3067\u304d\u305a\u3001\u30a2\u30c6\u30cd\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306a\u304f\u30ae\u30ea\u30b7\u30e3\u5168\u4f53\u304c\u30da\u30eb\u30b7\u30e3\u306b\u8ca0\u3051\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u30da\u30eb\u30b7\u30e3\u5e1d\u56fd\u306e\u652f\u914d\u4e0b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30a2\u30c6\u30cd\u306e\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e3b\u7fa9\u306f\u767a\u9054\u305b\u305a\u3001\u306e\u3061\u306e\u30ed\u30fc\u30de\u3084\u897f\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u3082\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e3b\u7fa9\u306e\u624b\u672c\u304c\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u81ea\u7531\u306a\u54f2\u5b66\u306e\u63a2\u6c42\u3082\u306a\u304f\u3001\u306e\u3061\u306e\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u306e\u82bd\u3082\u80b2\u305f\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3001\u3068\u3001\u8b70\u8ad6\u3092\u9032\u3081\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c3\u7ae0<\/strong>\u306e<strong>Strauss<\/strong>\u306f\u305d\u308c\u306b\u53cd\u8ad6\u3059\u308b\u3002(\u30c6\u30df\u30b9\u30c8\u30af\u30ec\u30b9\u304c\u6025\u6b7b\u3057\u305f\u3089\u30ae\u30ea\u30b7\u30e3\u306f\u8ca0\u3051\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u3060\u304c) 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\/>\n\u3082\u3057\u4e16\u4fd7\u306e\u6a29\u529b\u8005(\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u30ed\u30fc\u30de\u7687\u5e1d)\u304c\u305d\u306e\u5b97\u6559\u306b\u5e30\u4f9d\u3057\u305f\u3089\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u897f\u6d0b\u306b\u6559\u4f1a\u3068\u56fd\u5bb6\u306e\u9593\u306e\u7dca\u5f35\u304c\u3067\u304d\u305f\u306e\u3068\u3061\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3001\u7687\u5e1d\u304c\u795e\u304b\u3089\u7279\u5225\u306a\u5730\u4f4d\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u307f\u306a\u3059\u795e\u6a29\u653f\u6cbb\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u305d\u3046\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u306e\u897f\u6d0b\u793e\u4f1a\u306e\u3042\u308a\u304b\u305f\u306b\u3044\u308d\u3044\u308d\u306a\u5f71\u97ff\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3046\u308b\u304c\u3001\u6df1\u304f\u8ffd\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3080\u305a\u304b\u3057\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c2\u90e8<\/strong>(5-7\u7ae0)\u306f\u897f\u6d0b\u521d\u671f\u8fd1\u4ee3\u3002\u8a71\u984c\u306f\u3001\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u3092\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u304c\u652f\u914d\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3089\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306b\u96c6\u4e2d\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Eire<\/strong>\u306b\u3088\u308b<strong>\u7b2c5\u7ae0<\/strong>\u3067\u306f\u30011531\u5e74\u3001Henry 8\u4e16\u304c\u96e2\u5a5a\u554f\u984c\u3092\u8d77\u3053\u3059\u524d\u306b\u4ea1\u304f\u306a\u308a\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30b0\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u738b\u5bb6\u306f\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u307e\u307e\u3001Mary 1\u4e16\u304c\u65e9\u304f\u5373\u4f4d\u3057\u3001\u30b9\u30da\u30a4\u30f3\u30fb\u30aa\u30fc\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30a2\u306e\u30cf\u30d7\u30b9\u30d6\u30eb\u30b0\u5bb6\u3068\u540c\u76df\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u60f3\u5b9a\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3002(Henry 8\u4e16\u306e\u7d50\u5a5a\u7121\u52b9\u304c\u6559\u7687\u304b\u3089\u8a8d\u3081\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7b4b\u66f8\u304d\u3082\u8003\u3048\u305f\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u30b9\u30da\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u51fa\u304b\u305f\u306a\u3069\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u304c\u5927\u304d\u3059\u304e\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5224\u65ad\u3067\u907f\u3051\u305f\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3002)<br \/>\n\u30cf\u30d7\u30b9\u30d6\u30eb\u30b0\u30fb\u30a4\u30f3\u30b0\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u540c\u76df\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u5168\u4f53\u304c\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u512a\u52e2\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\u3053\u308d\u307e\u3067\u306f\u540c\u3058\u306a\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u305d\u3053\u304b\u3089Eire\u306e\u7b4b\u66f8\u304d\u306f\u5927\u304d\u304f2\u3064\u306b\u5206\u304b\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c1\u306e\u7b4b\u66f8\u304d\u306f\u3001\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u6a29\u529b\u304c\u5f37\u304f\u3066\u30d7\u30ed\u30c6\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30c8\u52e2\u529b\u3092\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u306b\u7121\u529b\u306a\u307e\u3067\u306b\u5c0f\u3055\u304f\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u3002\u7121\u6575\u306e\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u540c\u76df\u306f\u65b0\u5927\u9678\u306e\u5bcc\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3067\u304d\u8c4a\u304b\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u6575\u306e\u8105\u5a01\u304c\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u540c\u76df\u306f\u54f2\u5b66\u306b\u3082\u7523\u696d\u306b\u3082\u308f\u308a\u3042\u3044\u5bdb\u5bb9\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002Newton\u3082\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306b\u3068\u3069\u307e\u308a\u306a\u304c\u3089\u81ea\u7136\u54f2\u5b66\u3092\u7814\u7a76\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u5e1d\u56fd\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u3082\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u3002(Henry 8\u4e16\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3053\u308f\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u4fee\u9053\u9662\u306b\u88fd\u9244\u306e\u6eb6\u9271\u7089\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4e8b\u5b9f\u304c\u6700\u8fd1\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001Eire\u306f\u300c\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u300d\u3082\u7121\u7406\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8003\u3048\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3088\u3046\u3060\u3002) \u897f\u6d0b\u306e\u8987\u6a29\u306f\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5f37\u3044\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c2\u306e\u7b4b\u66f8\u304d\u306f\u3001\u5404\u56fd\u306e\u6a29\u529b\u8005\u306f\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u3060\u304c\u6c11\u8846\u306b\u306f\u30d7\u30ed\u30c6\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u6839\u5f37\u3044\u3002\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u3067\u3082\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u690d\u6c11\u5730\u3067\u3082\u3001\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u3068\u30d7\u30ed\u30c6\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u4e89\u3044\u3001\u7523\u696d\u8cc7\u672c\u306f\u767a\u9054\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3002\u6a29\u529b\u306f\u4e0d\u5bdb\u5bb9\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u9b54\u5973\u72e9\u308a\u304c\u7d9a\u304d\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u9769\u547d\u3082\u9032\u307e\u306a\u3044\u3002\u897f\u6d0b\u306f\u8987\u6a29\u3092\u3068\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002(\u6eb6\u9271\u7089\u304c\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3082\u6559\u4f1a\u306e\u88c5\u98fe\u54c1\u3092\u4f5c\u308b\u306b\u3068\u3069\u307e\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3002)<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u3058\u60f3\u5b9a\u3067\u3082\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u306e\u3069\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u91cd\u8996\u3057\u3066\u8003\u3048\u308b\u304b\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u5e30\u7d50\u306f\u307e\u3063\u305f\u304f\u3061\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Goldstone<\/strong>\u306b\u3088\u308b<strong>\u7b2c6\u7ae0<\/strong>\u3082\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30b0\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u304c\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u307e\u307e\u3067\u3042\u308b\u72b6\u6cc1\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001Eire\u3068\u306f\u53cd\u5bfe\u306b\u3001\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u652f\u914d\u4f53\u5236\u304c\u5f37\u3044\u3068\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u306b\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308b\u82bd\u3092\u3064\u3076\u3059\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u306f\u30011688\u5e74\u306e\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u300c\u540d\u8a89\u9769\u547d\u300d\u304c\u5931\u6557\u3057\u305f\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002William 3\u4e16\u304c\u738b\u4f4d\u306b\u3064\u3051\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u60f3\u5b9a\u3067\u3082\u3088\u3044\u306e\u3060\u304c\u30011690\u5e74\u306e\u30a2\u30a4\u30eb\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u3067\u306e\u6226\u3044\u3067\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u8ca0\u50b7\u3057\u305fWilliam 3\u4e16\u304c\u305d\u3053\u3067\u6226\u6b7b\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044James 2\u4e16\u306e\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u4f53\u5236\u304c\u5fa9\u6d3b\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u60f3\u5b9a\u3092\u304a\u3082\u306b\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n(Eire\u306e\u60f3\u5b9a\u3068\u3061\u304c\u3063\u3066)\u3053\u306e\u60f3\u5b9a\u3067\u306fAnglican\u6559\u4f1a\u306f\u3059\u3067\u306b\u6210\u7acb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u304c\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306b\u3082\u3069\u308b\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001Anglican\u304c\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u3068\u59a5\u5354\u3057\u3066\u4f53\u5236\u306b\u52a0\u308f\u308a\u4ed6\u306e\u30d7\u30ed\u30c6\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u5f3e\u5727\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7b4b\u66f8\u304d\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u305d\u308c\u3067\u3082\u3001Goldstone\u306e\u8003\u3048\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5b66\u554f\u306e\u81ea\u7531\u3082\u8d77\u696d\u306e\u81ea\u7531\u3082\u3055\u307e\u305f\u3052\u3089\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u9769\u547d\u3082\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u3082\u8d77\u3053\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002<br \/>\n\u30d5\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u306f\u3058\u3081\u3068\u3059\u308b\u4ed6\u306e\u30ab\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u738b\u56fd\u3082\u5c02\u5236\u7684\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002\u30aa\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u306f\u30d7\u30ed\u30c6\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30c8\u306e\u6559\u6761\u4e3b\u7fa9\u304c\u652f\u914d\u3057\u3066\u81ea\u7531\u304c\u4e4f\u3057\u304b\u3063\u305f(\u3068Goldstone\u306f\u898b\u308b)\u3002\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u690d\u6c11\u5730\u3082\u30d5\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u304c\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u3068\u540c\u76df\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u3042\u308b\u3082\u3068\u3067\u72ec\u7acb\u3067\u304d\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\u897f\u6d0b\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u3069\u3053\u3067\u3082\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pestana<\/strong>\u306b\u3088\u308b<strong>\u7b2c7\u7ae0<\/strong>\u306fGoldstone\u3078\u306e\u77ed\u3044\u53cd\u8ad6\u3002<br \/>\nWilliam 3\u4e16\u304c\u6b7b\u3093\u3060\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082Mary 2\u4e16\u3068Anne\u304c\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u300c\u540d\u8a89\u9769\u547d\u300d\u4f53\u5236\u306f\u7d42\u308f\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002(\u3055\u3089\u306b\u3001Mary 2\u4e16\u304c\u518d\u5a5a\u3057\u3066\u5b50\u5b6b\u3092\u6b8b\u3057\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002) \u5973\u6027\u3092\u8efd\u8996\u3059\u308b\u306a\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3002(\u672c\u66f8\u57f7\u7b46\u8005\u306e\u3046\u3061\u552f\u4e00)\u5973\u6027\u306e\u8457\u8005\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3053\u308c\u3092\u8a00\u308f\u305a\u306b\u306f\u3044\u3089\u308c\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3088\u3046\u3060\u3002<br \/>\n\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u5916\u306b\u3082\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u4eba\u7269(\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070James 2\u4e16)\u30fb\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3092\u3042\u307e\u308a\u306b\u91cd\u8996\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u6279\u5224\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c3\u90e8<\/strong>\u306e\u7b2c8-10\u7ae0\u306f\u3001\u897f\u6d0b\u4ee5\u5916\u3001\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u306f\u4e2d\u56fd\u304c\u3055\u304d\u304c\u3051\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yates<\/strong>\u306b\u3088\u308b<strong>\u7b2c8\u7ae0<\/strong>\u306f2\u3064\u306e\u5225\u3005\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u3092\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u7b2c1\u306f\u3001\u79e6\u306b\u3088\u308b\u4e2d\u539f\u7d71\u4e00\u304c\u3067\u304d\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3001\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u3067\u304d\u3066\u3082\u3059\u3050\u3053\u308f\u308c\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3060\u3002\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u306f\u3001\u79e6\u306e\u4f53\u5236\u3092\u6539\u9020\u3057\u3066\u5112\u6559\u3092\u57fa\u672c\u601d\u60f3\u3068\u3057\u305f\u6f22\u306e\u5e1d\u56fd\u304c\u6301\u7d9a\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u304f\u305a\u308c\u3066\u3082\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u3092\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306e\u307e\u3068\u307e\u308a\u3068\u3059\u308b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89b3\u3084\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3068\u308f\u304b\u3061\u304c\u305f\u3044\u5b87\u5b99\u89b3\u304c\u6301\u7d9a\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3082\u3057\u5e1d\u56fd\u304c\u3067\u304d\u306a\u304f\u3066\u591a\u6570\u306e\u56fd\u306e\u4e26\u7acb\u304c\u7d9a\u3044\u305f\u3089\u3069\u3046\u304b\u3002\u601d\u60f3\u9762\u3067\u306f\u3001\u8af8\u5b50\u767e\u5bb6\u306e\u4e26\u7acb\u304c\u7d9a\u304d\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u306e\u767a\u9054\u306b\u306f\u3064\u3054\u3046\u304c\u3088\u304b\u3063\u305f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3010Hanson\u304c\u8ad6\u3058\u308b\u30ae\u30ea\u30b7\u30e3\u3068\u6bd4\u3079\u308b\u3068\u3001\u4e0d\u8db3\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u306f\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3060\u3051\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u601d\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3002\u3011\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u30b7\u30eb\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u4ecb\u3057\u3066\u306e\u30ed\u30fc\u30de\u306a\u3069\u306e\u897f\u65b9\u3068\u306e\u4ea4\u6613\u306f\u9032\u307e\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c2\u306f\u3001\u5b8b\u5e1d\u56fd\u304c\u3001\u91d1\u3084\u5143\u306b\u8ca0\u3051\u305a\u3001\u7d71\u4e00\u3092\u7dad\u6301\u3057\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3060\u3002\u5b8b\u306f\u30011081\u5e74\u306e\u897f\u590f\u306e\u90fd\u3078\u306e\u653b\u6483\u3067\u52dd\u3066\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u6226\u8853\u3092\u3046\u307e\u304f\u3084\u308c\u3070\u52dd\u3066\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u305d\u3053\u3067\u52dd\u3063\u3066\u3001\u307e\u305a\u897f\u590f\u3092\u670d\u5c5e\u3055\u305b\u308b\u304b\u540c\u76df\u56fd\u306b\u3057\u3001\u305d\u306e\u9a0e\u99ac\u5175\u3092\u4f7f\u3048\u308c\u3070\u3001\u907c\u3084\u91d1\u306b\u8ca0\u3051\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u30c1\u30f3\u30ae\u30b9\u30fb\u30ab\u30f3\u306f\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u307e\u305a\u897f\u590f\u3092\u653b\u3081\u3066\u670d\u5c5e\u3055\u305b\u3066\u304b\u3089\u91d1\u3092\u653b\u3081\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u306e\u60f3\u5b9a\u306e\u3082\u3068\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30f3\u30b4\u30eb\u304c\u5f37\u3044\u52e2\u529b\u306b\u306a\u3089\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u5b8b\u306e\u90fd \u958b\u5c01\u3092\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3068\u3059\u308b\u5730\u57df\u3067\u3001\u88fd\u9244\u306a\u3069\u306e\u5de5\u696d\u304c\u6804\u3048\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u53f8\u99ac\u5149\u3089\u306e\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u306a\u601d\u60f3\u304c\u652f\u914d\u305b\u305a\u3001\u738b\u5b89\u77f3\u306e\u6539\u9769\u3092\u3082\u305f\u3089\u3057\u305f\u9769\u65b0\u7684\u306a\u601d\u60f3\u304c\u6804\u3048\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u897f\u590f\u306e\u5730\u57df\u3092\u901a\u3058\u3066\u897f\u65b9\u3068\u306e\u4ea4\u6613\u306f\u9032\u3093\u3060\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u5357\u306e\u6d77\u306e\u4ea4\u6613\u306b\u3082\u4e57\u308a\u51fa\u3057\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u30a4\u30b9\u30e9\u30e0\u570f\u3084\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u901a\u3058\u3066\u53e4\u4ee3\u30ae\u30ea\u30b7\u30e3\u306e\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u304c\u306f\u3044\u3063\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u897f\u6d0b\u8fd1\u4ee3\u79d1\u5b66\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304c\u305d\u308c\u306b\u4f3c\u305f\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3001\u3082\u3063\u3068\u65e9\u304f\u3067\u304d\u305f\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pomeranz<\/strong>\u306f\u3001<em>The Great Divergence<\/em> (\u300c<em>\u5927\u5206\u5c90<\/em>\u300d)\u3067\u306f\u3001\u897f\u6d0b\u306e\u5de5\u696d\u5316\u304c\u9032\u307e\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u304a\u3082\u306b\u8003\u3048\u305f\u3002\u672c\u66f8<strong>\u7b2c9\u7ae0<\/strong>\u3067\u306f\u305d\u306e\u7d9a\u304d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u306e\u5de5\u696d\u5316\u304c\u9032\u3093\u3060\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u304a\u3082\u306b\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u307e\u305a\u3001\u897f\u6d0b\u3068\u7121\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u4e2d\u56fd\u3067\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u304c\u59cb\u307e\u3063\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306f\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b?<br \/>\n1750\u5e74\u4ee3\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u529b\u3067\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd(\u3068\u304f\u306b\u9577\u6c5f\u4e0b\u6d41)\u306f\u3001\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1(\u3068\u304f\u306b\u30a4\u30f3\u30b0\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9)\u306b\u8ca0\u3051\u3066\u3044\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u5de5\u696d\u5316\u3059\u308b\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5730\u5e2f\u3078\u306e\u5468\u8fba\u304b\u3089\u306e\u98df\u6599\u4f9b\u7d66\u3068\u3044\u3046\u70b9\u3067\u4e2d\u56fd\u306e\u6761\u4ef6\u306f\u3088\u304f\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u571f\u5730\u751f\u7523\u6027\u3092\u3042\u3052\u308b\u52b4\u50cd\u96c6\u7d04\u7684\u8fb2\u696d\u304c\u767a\u9054\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u8fb2\u696d\u5730\u57df\u306e\u4eba\u53e3\u304c\u3075\u3048\u3066\u90fd\u5e02\u3078\u306e\u98df\u6599\u306a\u3069\u306e\u8cc7\u6e90\u306e\u4f9b\u7d66\u306b\u306f\u9650\u754c\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u65b0\u5927\u9678\u3078\u306e\u30a2\u30af\u30bb\u30b9\u306f\u56f0\u96e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u4e2d\u592e\u30a2\u30b8\u30a2\u306f\u4e7e\u71e5\u5730\u5e2f\u3067\u8fb2\u696d\u751f\u7523\u529b\u304c\u4e4f\u3057\u304f\u3001\u6771\u5357\u30a2\u30b8\u30a2\u306e\u30c7\u30eb\u30bf\u306e\u958b\u767a\u306b\u4e57\u308a\u51fa\u305b\u308b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u304c\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n\u77f3\u70ad\u306f\u3042\u308b\u306b\u306f\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304c\u6761\u4ef6\u304c\u3088\u304f\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u5b8b\u4ee3\u306b\u751f\u7523\u3057\u305f\u5f90\u5dde\u3084\u5bbf\u770c\u306e\u70ad\u7530\u306f\u5143\u306e\u6642\u4ee3\u306b\u8352\u308c\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u6b8b\u308b\u63a1\u6398\u53ef\u80fd\u91cf\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u306e\u70ad\u7530\u306e\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u306f\u5317\u897f\u90e8(\u5c71\u897f\u3001\u5185\u30e2\u30f3\u30b4\u30eb)\u306b\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3001\u9700\u8981\u3068\u6280\u8853\u306e\u3042\u308b\u9577\u6c5f\u4e0b\u6d41\u304b\u3089\u9060\u304f\u3001\u84b8\u6c17\u6a5f\u95a2\u767a\u9054\u4ee5\u524d\u306b\u306f\u8f38\u9001\u56f0\u96e3\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3082\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30b0\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u70ad\u9271\u306e\u56f0\u96e3\u304c\u6c34\u3060\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3068\u3061\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5317\u897f\u90e8\u306e\u56f0\u96e3\u306f\u767a\u706b\u3060\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u84b8\u6c17\u6a5f\u95a2\u306e\u767a\u660e\u306b\u306f\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308a\u306b\u304f\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u4eee\u5b9a\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001\u904b\u6cb3\u3067\u30a2\u30af\u30bb\u30b9\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u6c5f\u8607\u3042\u305f\u308a\u306b\u5927\u70ad\u7530\u304c\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3060\u3063\u305f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002<br \/>\n\u4e2d\u56fd\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u306f\u3001\u305f\u3057\u304b\u306b\u300c\u7b2c2\u6b21\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u300d\u3068\u3082\u3044\u308f\u308c\u308b\u96fb\u6c17\u306e\u5229\u7528\u3084\u5316\u5b66\u5408\u6210\u306a\u3069\u306b\u81f3\u308b\u306b\u306f\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u84b8\u6c17\u6a5f\u95a2\u3092\u306f\u3058\u3081\u3068\u3059\u308b\u300c\u7b2c1\u6b21\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u300d\u3092\u8d77\u3053\u3059\u6f5c\u5728\u529b\u306f\u3042\u3063\u305f(\u3068Pomeranz\u306f\u898b\u308b)\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u306e\u5b66\u8853\u306f14-17\u4e16\u7d00\u306b\u306f\u505c\u6ede\u3057\u305f\u304c\u300117-18\u4e16\u7d00\u306b\u306f\u3001\u53e4\u5178\u3092\u5b66\u3076\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u6279\u5224\u7684\u306b\u300c\u8003\u8a3c\u300d\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u6d3b\u767a\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u306e\u3060\u3002(\u5b66\u8005\u3068\u8077\u4eba\u306e\u9023\u643a\u306f\u5f31\u304b\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3002)<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c2\u306b\u3001\u5148\u306b\u5de5\u696d\u5316\u3057\u305f\u897f\u6d0b\u304c\u73fe\u308f\u308c\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3088\u3044\u306a\u308a\u3086\u304d\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<br \/>\n\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u304c\u3001\u30a2\u30d8\u30f3\u3067\u306a\u304f\u7dbf\u7e54\u7269\u305d\u306e\u307b\u304b\u306e\u5de5\u696d\u88fd\u54c1\u3092\u58f2\u308a\u3001\u671b\u9060\u93e1\u306a\u3069\u3082\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u3066\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u3092\u4fc3\u9032\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3089\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u306f\u660e\u6cbb\u306e\u65e5\u672c\u3068\u540c\u69d8\u306a\u767a\u5c55\u3092\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mokyr<\/strong>\u306b\u3088\u308b<strong>\u7b2c10\u7ae0<\/strong>\u306f\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u8853\u306a\u3069\u306e\u4eba\u306e\u77e5\u8b58\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u8ad6\u8003\u3002<br \/>\n\u77e5\u8b58\u306e\u9032\u5316\u3092\u751f\u7269\u9032\u5316\u8ad6\u3068\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u3001\u7a81\u7136\u5909\u7570\u3001\u9069\u8005\u751f\u5b58\u3067\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u4eba\u306b\u3088\u308b\u610f\u56f3\u7684\u9078\u629e\u3082\u3042\u308a\u3046\u308b\u3002\u5927\u307e\u304b\u306a\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u8a73\u3057\u3044\u767a\u5c55\u306fcontigent\u3060\u3002<br \/>\n\u6280\u8853(\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u601d\u8003)\u306e\u5206\u985e\u3002\u60f3\u50cf\u3067\u304d\u308b\u6280\u8853\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u3001\u4e00\u65b9\u306b\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u60f3\u50cf\u3055\u308c\u305f\u6280\u8853\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u4ed6\u65b9\u306b\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3042\u308b\u6280\u8853\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u60f3\u50cf\u3055\u308c\u3001\u3057\u304b\u3082\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3042\u308b\u6280\u8853\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u5404\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u6f5c\u5728\u7684(potential)\u306a\u6280\u8853\u3001\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u5b9f\u73fe\u3055\u308c\u305f\u6280\u8853\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u6280\u8853\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u304c\u6210\u7acb\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u57fa\u76e4\u3068\u306a\u308b\u77e5\u8b58\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3060\u3002\u57fa\u76e4\u3068\u306a\u308b\u77e5\u8b58\u306f\u3001\u300c\u79d1\u5b66\u300d\u3088\u308a\u306f\u5e83\u304f\u3001\u3082\u306e\u306e\u8003\u3048\u304b\u305f\u3082\u542b\u3080\u3002\u624b\u6bb5\u3068\u306a\u308b\u6280\u8853\u3082\u542b\u3080\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Mokyr\u306f\u3001\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u306f\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u3067\u306a\u304f\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u5927\u9678\u3067\u3082\u8d77\u3053\u308a\u3048\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b(\u3053\u306e\u70b9\u30676\u7ae0\u306eGoldstone\u306b\u306f\u8cdb\u6210\u3057\u306a\u3044)\u3002<br \/>\n\u897f\u6d0b\u4ee5\u5916\u3067\u3044\u3061\u3070\u3093\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u306f\u4e2d\u56fd\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304c\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u306b\u306f\u6280\u8853\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u306f\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304c\u57fa\u76e4\u3068\u306a\u308b\u77e5\u8b58\u304c\u72ed\u304b\u3063\u305f(\u3068Mokyr\u306f\u898b\u308b)\u3002\u8fd1\u4ee3\u79d1\u5b66\u306e\u80cc\u666f\u306b\u3001\u7269\u8cea\u754c\u306e\u6cd5\u5247\u306e\u7121\u77db\u76fe\u6027\u30fb\u666e\u904d\u9069\u7528\u6027\u304c\u60f3\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u306b\u306f\u305d\u308c\u304c\u6b20\u3051\u3066\u3044\u305f(\u3068Mokyr\u306f\u898b\u308b)\u3002<br \/>\n\u897f\u6d0b\u4ee5\u5916\u3067\u897f\u6d0b\u3068\u72ec\u7acb\u306b\u8fd1\u4ee3\u79d1\u5b66\u76f8\u5f53\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3067\u304d\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306f\u306a\u304f\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306f\u308f\u308c\u308f\u308c\u306b\u306f\u60f3\u50cf\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u7279\u5fb4\u3092\u3082\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Herwig<\/strong>\u306b\u3088\u308b<strong>\u7b2c11\u7ae0<\/strong>\u306f\u73fe\u4ee3\u306e\u8a71\u3002\u7b2c2\u6b21\u5927\u6226\u306e\u306a\u308a\u3086\u304d\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u30011941\u5e74\u306bStalin\u304c\u6b7b\u3093\u3067\u30bd\u9023\u306e\u7d71\u6cbb\u529b\u304c\u5f31\u304f\u306a\u308a\u300c\u6771\u90e8\u6226\u7dda\u300d\u3067\u306f\u30c9\u30a4\u30c4\u512a\u4f4d\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3001\u305f\u3060\u3057\u30c9\u30a4\u30c4\u306f\u300c\u897f\u90e8\u6226\u7dda\u300d\u3067\u8ca0\u3051\u308b\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7b4b\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u500b\u5225\u4e8b\u4ef6\u30fb\u4eba\u7269\u3092\u5206\u5c90\u70b9\u3068\u3057\u305f\u56e0\u679c\u9023\u9396\u306e\u4f8b\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u897f\u6d0b\u306e\u512a\u4f4d\u6027\u304c\u5909\u308f\u308b\u8a71\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u5168\u4f53\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u306e\u610f\u7fa9\u306f\u3088\u304f\u308f\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002\u8a0e\u8ad6\u306b\u53c2\u52a0\u3057\u305f\u4eba\u3060\u304b\u3089\u539f\u7a3f\u3092\u53ce\u9332\u3057\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306a\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c4\u90e8<\/strong>\u306f\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3002<strong>Parker<\/strong>\u3068<strong>Tetlock<\/strong>\u306b\u3088\u308b<strong>\u7b2c12\u7ae0<\/strong>\u3002<br \/>\n\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u6b74\u53f2\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u306e\u8ad6\u70b9\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u30e1\u30e2\u306e\u982d\u306e\u307b\u3046\u3067\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u4eee\u5b9a\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u3053\u3068\u3068contigent\u306a\u3053\u3068\u3092\u5206\u3051\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3068\u671f\u5f85\u3059\u308b\u300d\u3068\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u897f\u6d0b\u306e\u52c3\u8208\u300d\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3057\u305f\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u7b4b\u66f8\u304d\u306e\u4f8b\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u8ffd\u52a0\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u3068\u30a2\u30b8\u30a2\u304c\u3082\u3063\u3068\u5bfe\u7b49\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<br \/>\n\u30aa\u30b9\u30de\u30f3\u5e1d\u56fd\u304c\u30a6\u30a3\u30fc\u30f3\u3092\u653b\u3081\u304a\u3068\u3057\u3001\u30cf\u30d7\u30b9\u30d6\u30eb\u30b0\u5bb6\u304c\u5f37\u3044\u5e1d\u56fd\u3092\u5f62\u6210\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3002\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u306e\u9280\u304c\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u306b\u3084\u3063\u3066\u3053\u306a\u3044\u3002\u305d\u3046\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30c9\u3067\u3082\u3001\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u4eba\u306f\u30e0\u30ac\u30fc\u30eb\u5e1d\u56fd\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u5f37\u304f\u51fa\u3089\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002<br \/>\n\u307e\u305f\u3001(Sanjay Subramanyam\u306e\u8003\u3048\u3060\u304c) \u30a4\u30e9\u30f3\u306eNadir 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\/>\n\u30e2\u30f3\u30b4\u30eb\u4eba\u306f\u88ab\u5f81\u670d\u6c11\u304c\u3059\u3050\u5f93\u308f\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3069\u3093\u3069\u3093\u6bba\u3057\u305f\u3002\u30ed\u30b7\u30a2\u306e\u72ec\u7acb\u56de\u5fa9\u3082\u3060\u3044\u3076\u304b\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u897f\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u3082\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u9577\u671f\u306b\u308f\u305f\u3063\u3066\u72ec\u7acb\u3092\u5931\u3063\u305f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u512a\u4f4d\u6027\u3002<br \/>\n\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u306e\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u306b\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5148\u4f4f\u6c11\u306f\u5f31\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u5929\u7136\u75d8\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8a00\u3046\u3068\u3001\u6e05\u306e\u5eb7\u7155\u5e1d(1661\u5e74\u306b\u4f4d\u306b\u3064\u3044\u305f)\u306f\u514d\u75ab\u3092\u8a8d\u8b58\u3057\u3001\u7a2e\u75d8(\u4eba\u75d8)\u3092\u63a8\u9032\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3082\u3057\u3082\u3053\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u30a2\u30b9\u30c6\u30ab\u306b\u3082\u4f1d\u308f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3089\u3001\u30b9\u30da\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u65b0\u5927\u9678\u652f\u914d\u306f\u4e00\u65b9\u7684\u3067\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd1\u4ee3\u897f\u6d0b\u306e\u8ecd\u4e8b\u306e\u3084\u308a\u304b\u305f\u304c\u5f37\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3002<br \/>\n\u3053\u308c\u306e\u8981\u56e0\u306b\u306f\u3001\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6280\u8853\u3001\u7d71\u5236\u304c\u3068\u308c\u305f\u8ecd\u3001\u6280\u8853\u9769\u65b0\u3092\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u4f53\u5236\u3001\u8cc7\u91d1\u4f9b\u7d66\u4f53\u5236\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u8cc7\u91d1\u4f9b\u7d66\u4f53\u5236\u306b\u306f\u3001\u5fb4\u7a0e\u80fd\u529b\u3092\u3082\u3064\u6a29\u529b\u3001(\u305d\u308c\u3092\u524d\u63d0\u306b)\u8cc7\u91d1\u3092\u8cb8\u305b\u308b\u5546\u4eba\u306e\u5b58\u5728\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002\u897f\u6d0b\u4ee5\u5916\u306e\u3060\u308c\u304b\u304c\u3053\u308c\u3092\u72ec\u81ea\u306b\u9054\u6210\u3001\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u897f\u6d0b\u3092\u307e\u306d\u3066\u5bfe\u6297\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3089\u3001\u897f\u6d0b\u306e\u512a\u4f4d\u6027\u306f\u304f\u305a\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<br \/>\n\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u306f\u3001\u897f\u6d0b\u3092\u307e\u306d\u308b\u307b\u3046\u306b\u306f\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u304c20\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\u3081\u306b\u3042\u308b\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6210\u529f\u3057\u305f(\u300c\u5bcc\u56fd\u5f37\u5175\u300d\u653f\u7b56)\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3053\u308c\u304c\u3067\u304d\u305f\u306e\u306b\u306f\u3001\u30ed\u30b7\u30a2\u3092\u3046\u3089\u3093\u3067\u3044\u305f\u30e6\u30c0\u30e4\u91d1\u878d\u696d\u8005\u304c\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u3067\u65e5\u672c\u56fd\u50b5\u3092\u8cb7\u3044\u652f\u3048\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8981\u56e0\u3082\u3042\u3063\u305f(\u3068\u8457\u8005\u306f\u307f\u308b)\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u8d64\u4e0a<\/strong> \u88d5\u5e78, 2015: \u5b66\u554f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u300c\u6b74\u53f2\u306eIF\u300d &#8212; \u300c\u672a\u6765\u306e\u4ed6\u8005\u300d\u3092\u898b\u3064\u3081\u308b\u6b74\u53f2\u5b66\u3002<em>\u6b74\u53f2\u306e\u3086\u3089\u304e\u3068\u518d\u7de8<\/em> (<strong>\u4f50\u85e4<\/strong> \u5353\u5df1 \u7de8, \u5ca9\u6ce2\u8b1b\u5ea7 <em>\u73fe\u4ee3<\/em> <strong>5<\/strong>, \u5ca9\u6ce2\u66f8\u5e97), 43-67.<\/li>\n<li>Edward Hallet <strong>Carr<\/strong>, 1961: <em>What is History?<\/em>. London: Macmillan.<\/li>\n<li>[\u540c\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u7248] E. H. <strong>\u30ab\u30fc<\/strong> \u8457, <strong>\u6e05\u6c34<\/strong> \u5e7e\u592a\u90ce \u8a33 (1962): <em>\u6b74\u53f2\u3068\u306f\u4f55\u304b<\/em> (\u5ca9\u6ce2\u65b0\u66f8 \u9752\u7248 <strong>447<\/strong>)\u3002\u5ca9\u6ce2\u66f8\u5e97\u3002[\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u3053\u306e\u7248\u3092\u8aad\u3093\u3060\u304c\u3001\u3088\u304f\u899a\u3048\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002]<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5e02\u4e95<\/strong> \u4e09\u90ce, 1963: <em>\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u5206\u6790<\/em>\u3002\u5ca9\u6ce2\u66f8\u5e97\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=4076\">[\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2]<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Geoffrey <strong>Parker<\/strong>, 2013, paperback 2014: <em>Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century<\/em>. Yale University Press, 904 pp., 978-0-300-20863-4 (pbk.) [\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u307e\u3060\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6298\u308a\u8fd4\u3057\u306e\u3042\u3068\u306b\u8a73\u3057\u3044\u76ee\u6b21\u3092\u3064\u3051\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n<!--more--><br \/>\n==\u76ee\u6b21 ==<br \/>\nContents<br \/>\nList of Illustrations<br \/>\nAcknowledgments<br \/>\nPreface &#8212; Unmaking the Middle Kingdom \/<em>The Editors<\/em><br \/>\nChapter 1. Counterfactural Thought Experimetns &#8212; Why we can&#8217;t live without them &#038; how we must lean to live with them \/<em>Philip E. Tetlock and Geoffrey Parker<\/em><br \/>\n &#8211; Why We Are All (Like it or Not) Counterfactural Historians<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The Logical Case for Counterfactual History<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The Psychological Case for Counterfactual History<br \/>\n &#8211; Counterfactual Thought Experiments and Their Enemies<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Counterfactual History is Hopelessly Arbitrary<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Counterfactual History is Hopelessly Speculative<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Counterfactual History is Hopelessly Self-Serving<br \/>\n &#8211; Procedual Questions in Designing and Conducting Thought Experiments<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Procedual Request 1: Address the &#8220;Arbitrariness&#8221; Critique<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Procedual Request 2: Address the Objection That Counterfactual History is Hopelessly Speculative<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Procedual Request 3: Address the Objection That Counterfactual History is Hopelessly Self-Serving<br \/>\n<strong>Part 1. Creating the West<\/strong><br \/>\nChapter 2. A Stillborn West? &#8212; Themistocles at Salamis, 480 BC \/<em>Victor Davis Hanson<\/em><br \/>\n &#8211; Ancient and Modern Assessments of the Battle<br \/>\n &#8211; The Battle of Salamis<br \/>\n &#8211; The Persian wars and the Survival of the West<br \/>\n &#8211; Salamis and Its Role in the Greek Victory<br \/>\n &#8211; Salamis and Themistocles<br \/>\n &#8211; Miscellaneous Second-Order Conterfactual Suppositions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Themistocles at Salamis<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Persia&#8217;s Military Strategy<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Persian Satrapy<br \/>\n &#8211; Some Thoughts on Counterfactuality and History<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The Spread of Hellenism<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Counterfactual History<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion and Postscript<br \/>\nChapter 3. The Resilient West &#8212; Salamis without Themistocles, classical Greece without Salamis, &#038; The West without classical Greece \/<em>Barry Strauss<\/em><br \/>\n &#8211; Could the Greeks Have Won at Salamis without Themistocles?<br \/>\n &#8211; Could Athens Have Defeated Persia after Losing at Salamis?<br \/>\n &#8211; Could Western Civilization Have Survived Persian Defeat of Greece?<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion<br \/>\nChapter 4. The Quest for a Counterfactual Jesus &#8212; Imagining the West without the Cross \/<em>Carlos M. N. Eire<\/em><br \/>\n<strong>Part 2. The Rise of the West<\/strong><br \/>\nChapter 5. Religious Kitsch or Industrial Revolution &#8212; What difference would a Catholic England make? \/<em>Carlos M. N. Eire<\/em><br \/>\n &#8211; Religion and Counterfactual History: Some Preliminary Observations<br \/>\n &#8211; Catholic England: The Minimal Rewrite<br \/>\n &#8211; Catholic England: Political and Milinary Counterfactual History<br \/>\n &#8211; Catholic England: Religious History<br \/>\n &#8211; Examining Two Radically Different Scenarios<br \/>\n &#8211; Substantive Questions about Western Predominance<br \/>\nChapter 6. Europe&#8217;s Peculiar Path &#8212; Would the world be &#8220;modern&#8221; if William III&#8217;s invasion of England in 1688 had failed? \/<em>Jack A. Goldstone<\/em><br \/>\n &#8211; Nations and Powers<br \/>\n &#8211; Science and Technology<br \/>\n &#8211; Democracy Manqu&eacute;<br \/>\n &#8211; But Then Again&#8230;<br \/>\n &#8211; Reflections on the Counterfactual World<br \/>\nChapter 7. Nineteenth-Century British Imperialism Undone with a Single Shell Fragment &#8212; A response to Jack Goldstone&#8217;s &#8220;Europe&#8217;s Peculiar Path&#8221; \/<em>Carla Gardina Pestana<\/em><br \/>\n<strong>Part 3. The West Undone?<\/strong><br \/>\nChapter 8. The Song Empire &#8212; The World&#8217;s first superpower? \/<em>Robin D. S. Yates<\/em><br \/>\n &#8211; China Un-unified<br \/>\n &#8211; The Possible Effects<br \/>\n &#8211; The Song Dynasty<br \/>\n &#8211; The Song Counterfactual<br \/>\n &#8211; The Effects of the Song Victory<br \/>\n &#8211; Concluding Remarks<br \/>\nChapter 9. Without Coal? Colonies? Calculus? &#8212; Counterfactuals &#038; industrialization in Europe &#038; China \/<em>Kenneth Pomeranz<\/em><br \/>\n &#8211; Background &#8212; Europe in a Chinese Mirror<br \/>\n &#8211; Could China &#8220;Have Been a Contender&#8221;?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Resource Constraints<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Pattern of Growth and the Absence of a &#8220;New World&#8221;<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Fossil Fuels<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Science and Technology Limits and Posibilities of a China &#8220;Left Alone&#8221; Longer<br \/>\n &#8211; A Different Counterfactual: With Sino-Western Contact but no Opium War<br \/>\n &#8211; Lessons of the Exercise &#8212; for Others and for Me<br \/>\nChapter 10. King Kong and Cold Fusion &#8212; Counterfactual analysis &#038; the history of technology \/<em>Joel Mokyr<\/em><br \/>\n &#8211; An Evolutionary View of the History of Technology<br \/>\n &#8211; The Epistemic Bases of Techniques<br \/>\n &#8211; Counterfactual Technology<br \/>\n &#8211; Western versus Oriental Technology: Chance or Fate?<br \/>\nChapter 11. Hitler Wins in the East but Germany Still Loses World War II \/<em>Holger H. Herwig<\/em><br \/>\n &#8211; The New Order in the Germanic East<br \/>\n &#8211; The Stalin &#8220;First-Order Counterfactual&#8221;<br \/>\n &#8211; The Hitler &#8220;Second-Order Counterfactual&#8221;<br \/>\n &#8211; Conclusion<br \/>\n<strong>Part 4. Conclusions<\/strong><br \/>\nCapter 12. Counterfactural History &#8212; Its advocates, its critics, &#038; its uses \/<em>Geoffrey Parker and Philip E. Tetlock<\/em><br \/>\n &#8211; The Counterfactual Enterprise Reconsidered<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8220;Close Calls&#8221; versus &#8220;Reversion&#8221;<br \/>\n &#8211; Outstanding Analytical Challenges<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Procedural Request 1: How Historian Choose Anthecendents as Starting Points for Thought Experiments<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Procedural Request 2: On Potential Logical Contradictions between the Connecting Principles Needed to Link Our Antecendents to Conclusions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Procedural Request 3: How Far into Hypothetical futures Is It Possible to See?<br \/>\n &#8211; Can &#8220;Synergy&#8221; Undo the Rise of the West?<br \/>\n &#8211; Why the West Rose<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Europe Invaded<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Microbes<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The Western Way of War<br \/>\n<strong>Contributors<br \/>\nIndex<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Philip E. Tetlock, Richard Ned Lebow &#038; Geoffrey Parker, eds., 2006: Unmaking the West &#8212; &#8220;What [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dokusyo-memo-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7144","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7144"}],"version-history":[{"count":49,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7144\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8998,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7144\/revisions\/8998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7144"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7144"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7144"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}