{"id":4043,"date":"2021-03-07T22:35:13","date_gmt":"2021-03-07T13:35:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=4043"},"modified":"2021-06-08T08:42:43","modified_gmt":"2021-06-07T23:42:43","slug":"ian-hacking-%e3%83%8f%e3%83%83%e3%82%ad%e3%83%b3%e3%82%b0-1975-2006-%e5%ba%83%e7%94%b0-%e3%81%99%e3%81%bf%e3%82%8c%e3%80%81%e6%a3%ae%e5%85%83-%e8%89%af%e5%a4%aa-%e8%a8%b3-2013-%e7%a2%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=4043","title":{"rendered":"Ian Hacking [\u30cf\u30c3\u30ad\u30f3\u30b0] (1975, 2006 \/ \u5e83\u7530 \u3059\u307f\u308c\u3001\u68ee\u5143 \u826f\u592a \u8a33 2013) \u78ba\u7387\u306e\u767a\u898b [\u539f\u984c The Emergence of Probability]"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Ian <strong>Hacking<\/strong>, 1975, 2006: <em>The Emergence of Probability<\/em>. 2 ed. Cambridge University Press.<\/li>\n<li>\u30a4\u30a2\u30f3\u30fb<strong>\u30cf\u30c3\u30ad\u30f3\u30b0<\/strong> \u8457, <strong>\u5e83\u7530<\/strong> \u3059\u307f\u308c\u3001<strong>\u68ee\u5143<\/strong> \u826f\u592a \u8a33 2013: <em>\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u51fa\u73fe<\/em>\u3002\u6176\u61c9\u7fa9\u587e\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u4f1a, 393 pp. ISBN 978-4-7664-2103-3.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u7248\u306f2013\u5e7412\u6708\u306b\u51fa\u305f\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u65b0\u520a\u3067\u8cb7\u3063\u3066\u30012014\u5e741\u6708\u306b\u8aad\u307f\u3001\u3044\u3061\u304a\u3046\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2\u3092\u66f8\u3044\u305f\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306b\u51fa\u3059\u3068\u3053\u308d\u307e\u3067\u6574\u7406\u3067\u304d\u3066\u3044\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u7684\u306a\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5f62\u3067\u3042\u305f\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u77e5\u8b58\u306e\u610f\u7fa9\u3084\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u3069\u3046\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u304b\u306b\u95a2\u5fc3\u3092\u3082\u3063\u3066\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u79d1\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u3084\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2(\u54f2\u5b66\u53f2\u3082\u3075\u304f\u3080\u306e\u3067\u77e5\u306e\u6b74\u53f2\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3079\u304d\u304b?)\u306e\u672c\u3092\u8aad\u307f\u305f\u304f\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u539f\u66f8\u306f1975\u5e74\u306b\u51fa\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u30012006\u5e74\u306e\u7b2c2\u7248\u3067\u3082\u5185\u5bb9\u306f\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u306b\u5909\u308f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u306e\u89b3\u70b9\u3067\u306f\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u306e\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u3075\u304f\u3081\u305f\u672c\u3092\u8aad\u3080\u3079\u304d\u3068\u3082\u601d\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001Hacking \u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f <em>The Social Construction of What?<\/em> <a href=\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=3259\">[\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2]<\/a> \u3088\u308a\u3082\u3080\u3057\u308d\u3001Kuhn \u306e <em>The Structure of Scientific Revolution<\/em> \u306e50\u5468\u5e74\u7248\u306b\u3088\u305b\u305f\u89e3\u8aac\u304c\u3088\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3068\u601d\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u8457\u66f8\u306a\u3089\u3070\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u307f\u3088\u3046\u3068\u601d\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3010\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u304a\u307c\u3048\u304c\u304d\u3060\u304c\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8003\u3048\u306e\u306f\u3058\u307e\u308a\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u305f\u307e\u305f\u307e\u5c11\u5e74\u306e\u3068\u304d\u3001\u4e00\u822c\u5411\u3051\u306e\u300e<em>\u6570\u306e\u4e16\u754c<\/em>\u300f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u672c\u306e\u306a\u304b\u3067\u3001\u30b5\u30a4\u30b3\u30ed\u3092\u3064\u304b\u3063\u305f\u8ced\u3051\u3054\u3068\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u8cea\u554f\u306b\u30d1\u30b9\u30ab\u30eb\u304c\u3053\u305f\u3048\u305f\u306e\u304c\u304d\u3063\u304b\u3051\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a71\u3092\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u3044\u305f\u3002\u305d\u3053\u306b\u30d5\u30a7\u30eb\u30de\u3084\u30c9\u30fb\u30e1\u30ec\u3068\u3044\u3046\u540d\u307e\u3048\u3082\u51fa\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3068\u601d\u3046\u304c\u3001\u3042\u307e\u308a\u304f\u308f\u3057\u304f\u304a\u307c\u3048\u3066\u3044\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u672c\u306e\u66f8\u8a8c\u60c5\u5831\u304c\u307f\u3064\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>David <strong>Bergamini<\/strong> and the editors of <em>Life<\/em>, 1963: <em>Mathematics<\/em> (Life science library). Time Inc.<\/li>\n<li>\u30c7\u30d3\u30c3\u30c9\u30fb<strong>\u30d0\u30fc\u30ac\u30df\u30cb<\/strong> \u8457, <strong>\u30e9\u30a4\u30d5\u7de8\u96c6\u90e8<\/strong> \u7de8, <strong>\u85ae\u5185<\/strong> \u6e05 \u8a33, <strong>\u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u30e9\u30a4\u30d5\u30d6\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u7de8\u96c6\u90e8<\/strong> \u7de8\u96c6, 1973: <em>\u6570\u306e\u4e16\u754c<\/em> (\u30e9\u30a4\u30d5 \/ \u4eba\u9593\u3068\u79d1\u5b66\u30b7\u30ea\u30fc\u30ba)\u3002\u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u30e9\u30a4\u30d5\u30d6\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u3002\u3011<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u304a\u3082\u306a\u4e3b\u5f35\u306f\u3001\u73fe\u4ee3\u3067\u306f\u79d1\u5b66\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306a\u304f\u793e\u4f1a\u751f\u6d3b\u306b\u3082\u5fc5\u9808\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8003\u3048\u306f\u300117\u4e16\u7d00\u5f8c\u534a (1650\u5e74\u3054\u308d\uff5e1700\u5e74\u3054\u308d)\u306b\u3001Pascal\u3092\u3075\u304f\u3080\u304b\u306a\u308a\u304a\u304a\u305c\u3044\u306e\u4eba\u305f\u3061\u306e\u601d\u8003\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3067\u304d\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u524d\u306b\u306f\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2006\u5e74\u306e\u5e8f\u6587 (\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u7248\u3067\u306f\u3046\u3057\u308d\u306e\u307b\u3046\u306b\u3064\u3051\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b) \u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306f\u6b74\u53f2\u306e\u672c\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002Michel Foucault\u306e\u3044\u3046\u300c\u77e5\u306e\u8003\u53e4\u5b66\u300d\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092\u3068\u3063\u305f\u305d\u3046\u3060 (\u305f\u3060\u3057Foucault \u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8ad6\u306b\u5fe0\u5b9f\u3068\u306f\u304b\u304e\u3089\u306a\u3044)\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u7684\u306a\u4e8b\u5b9f\u306e\u7d4c\u904e\u3092\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u54f2\u5b66\u8005\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u3069\u3093\u306a\u77e5\u8b58\u306e\u69cb\u9020\u306e\u5909\u5316\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306e\u304b\u3092\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306a\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u51fa\u73fe\u306f\u3001Kuhn\u306e\u610f\u5473\u3067\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u9769\u547d\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3002\u3042\u308b\u5b66\u554f\u9818\u57df\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30c0\u30a4\u30e0\u306e\u4ea4\u4ee3\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u30d1\u30e9\u30c0\u30a4\u30e0\u3092\u3082\u3064\u5b66\u554f\u9818\u57df\u304c\u3042\u3089\u305f\u306b\u3067\u304d\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306a\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u305d\u308c\u3092\u30d1\u30e9\u30c0\u30a4\u30e0\u306e\u4ea4\u4ee3\u3088\u308a\u3082\u4e0a\u4f4d\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u9769\u547d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3079\u304d\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306f Kuhn \u3068\u5225\u306e\u610f\u5473\u306717\u4e16\u7d00\u897f\u6d0b\u3067\u79d1\u5b66\u9769\u547d\u304c\u304a\u304d\u305f\u3068\u3044\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3068\u304d\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u9769\u547d\u306e\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u3057\u3081\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3001\u9806\u306b\u8aad\u307f\u306a\u304c\u3089\u306c\u304d\u66f8\u304d\u3057\u305f\u30e1\u30e2\u3092\u3001\u3059\u3053\u3057\u6574\u7406\u3057\u3066\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u8aa4\u89e3\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c1\u7ae0 \u6b20\u843d\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u8003\u3048<\/strong><br \/>\n\u78ba\u7387\u306b\u306f\u3001\u3008\u8a3c\u62e0\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u4fe1\u5ff5\u306e\u5ea6\u5408\u3044\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3059\u308b\u3009\u3001\u3008\u30b5\u30a4\u30b3\u30ed\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u9053\u5177\u304c\u793a\u3059\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u76f8\u5bfe\u983b\u5ea6\u3092\u751f\u307f\u51fa\u3059\u50be\u5411\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3059\u308b\u30092\u3064\u306e\u5074\u9762\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e2\u3064\u306e\u5074\u9762\u3092\u81ea\u899a\u7684\u306b\u610f\u8b58\u3067\u304d\u305f\u306e\u306f1660\u5e74\u3054\u308d\u4ee5\u5f8c\u3060\u3002<br \/>\n(\u305f\u3060\u3057\u30a4\u30f3\u30c9\u306b\u306f\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3080\u304b\u3057\u304b\u3089\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306e\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3001\u3068\u8a00\u3063\u3066\u3001\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001\u300e<em>\u30de\u30cf\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u30e9\u30bf<\/em>\u300f(\u897f\u66a6400\u5e74\u3054\u308d\u5b8c\u6210)\u306e\u7b2c3\u5dfb\u306b\u542b\u307e\u308c\u305f\u300e<em>\u30ca\u30e9\u738b\u7269\u8a9e<\/em>\u300f\u3092\u3042\u3052\u308b\u3002\u3010\u7269\u8a9e\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3070\u306f\u3044\u308d\u3044\u308d\u306a\u89e3\u91c8\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3001\u3053\u306e\u300c\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u300d\u306f\u6c38\u9060\u306b\u300c\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u300d\u306b\u3068\u3069\u307e\u308b\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u3011)<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c2\u7ae0 \u4e8c\u5143\u6027<\/strong><br \/>\n\u78ba\u7387\u306b\u306f\u3064\u304e\u306e\u4e8c\u5143\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u5076\u7136\u7684\u306a\u904e\u7a0b\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306estochastic\u306a\u6cd5\u5247\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u8a8d\u8b58\u8ad6\u7684\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u547d\u984c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u5408\u7406\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u306e\u5ea6\u5408\u3044\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Pascal\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3044\u3048\u3070\u3001\u8ced\u3051\u306e\u554f\u984c\u306f\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u3067\u3001\u795e\u306e\u5b58\u5728\u306e\u554f\u984c\u306f\u4fe1\u5ff5\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c3\u7ae0 \u81c6\u898b<\/strong><br \/>\n\u4e2d\u4e16\u306e\u8a8d\u8b58\u8ad6\u3067\u306f\u3001\u77e5\u8b58\u3068\u81c6\u898b\u3068\u304c\u533a\u5225\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u300c\u77e5\u8b58\u300d\u306f\u666e\u904d\u7684\u771f\u7406\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u77e5\u8b58\u3060\u3002\u533b\u5b66\u306a\u3069\u306f\u300c\u81c6\u898b\u300d\u3092\u5fc5\u8981\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3002probable \u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3070\u306f\u81c6\u898b\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3064\u304b\u308f\u308c\u3001\u300c\u662f\u8a8d\u306b\u3042\u305f\u3044\u3059\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002\u8ce2\u8005\u306b\u3088\u308b\u662f\u8a8d\u3068\u3001\u3057\u308b\u3057(sign)\u304cprobability\u3092\u3042\u305f\u3048\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n\u30eb\u30cd\u30b5\u30f3\u30b9\u671f (15\uff5e16\u4e16\u7d00) \u306e\u4eba\u3073\u3068\u304c\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u3057\u308b\u3057\u306f\u300c\u81ea\u7136\u306e\u4f5c\u8005\u300d\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u305f\u3057\u308b\u3057\u3060\u3001\u3068\u3068\u3089\u3048\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e probability\u304c\u3001\u7a81\u7136\u5909\u7570\u3057\u3066\u3001\u300c\u78ba\u7387\u300d\u306b\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c4\u7ae0 \u8a3c\u62e0<\/strong><br \/>\n\u4e2d\u4e16\u306b\u306f\u3001\u8a3c\u8a00\u3001\u8a3c\u8a00\u8005\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6982\u5ff5\u306f\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3001(\u8ad6\u8a3c\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3059\u308b\u6587\u8108\u3067\u306f) \u4e8b\u7269\u306b\u3088\u308b\u8a3c\u62e0\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6982\u5ff5\u304c\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3010\u3053\u308c\u306f\u6975\u7aef\u306a\u304d\u3081\u3064\u3051\u3060\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u6279\u5224\u3059\u308b\u8ad6\u8003\u304c\u3044\u308d\u3044\u308d\u3042\u308b\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3002\u305d\u3046\u3044\u3046\u6279\u5224\u3092\u4e3b\u8981\u306a\u8ad6\u70b9\u306e\u3072\u3068\u3064\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3075\u304f\u3080\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u3088\u308a\u539a\u3044\u672c\u304c\u51fa\u305f\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u307e\u3060\u8aad\u307f\u3068\u304a\u305b\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3011<br \/>\n\u8a3c\u62e0\u306e\u6982\u5ff5\u306f\u3001\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u932c\u91d1\u8853\u3001\u5730\u8cea\u5b66\u3001\u5360\u661f\u8853\u306a\u3069\u306e\u3001\u81c6\u898b\u3092\u5fc5\u8981\u3068\u3059\u308b\u5206\u91ce\u304b\u3089\u304d\u305f\u3002\u8a3a\u65ad\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4e8b\u7269\u304c\u5225\u306e\u4e8b\u7269\u306e\u8a3c\u62e0\u3068\u3057\u3066\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c5\u7ae0 \u3057\u308b\u3057<\/strong><br \/>\n\u30d1\u30e9\u30b1\u30eb\u30b9\u30b9 (Paracelsus, 1493-1541)\u306f\u3001\u795e\u306e\u66f8\u7269\u3067\u3042\u308b\u300c\u82f1\u77e5\u300d\u3068\u300c\u84bc\u5929\u300d\u3092\u8aad\u307f\u53d6\u308d\u3046\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3002\u9e7f\u306e\u89d2\u306e\u304b\u305f\u3061\u3082\u3001\u661f\u306e\u540d\u3082\u3001\u300c\u3057\u308b\u3057\u300d\u3068\u8003\u3048\u305f\u3002<br \/>\nDesCartes\u306f\u3001\u8ad6\u8a3c\u7684\u306a\u77e5\u3092\u6307\u5411\u3057\u305f\u3002<br \/>\nGassendi\u306f\u3001\u8ad6\u8a3c\u7684\u306a\u77e5\u306f\u5b58\u5728\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3001\u77e5\u3068\u81c6\u898b\u306f\u540c\u7fa9\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3001\u3068\u4e3b\u5f35\u3057\u305f\u3002<br \/>\nHobbes\u306f1640\u5e74 (\u51fa\u72481650\u5e74)\u306b\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u306e\u3057\u308b\u3057\u3068\u6063\u610f\u7684\u306a\u3057\u308b\u3057\u3092\u533a\u5225\u3057\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u306e\u3057\u308b\u3057\u306e\u983b\u5ea6\u3092\u8ad6\u3058\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c6\u7ae0 \u6700\u521d\u306e\u8a08\u7b97<\/strong><br \/>\n16\u4e16\u7d00\u306b\u3001\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u306a\u73fe\u8c61\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u3055\u307e\u3056\u307e\u306a\u8a08\u7b97\u554f\u984c\u304c\u3055\u304b\u3093\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u306f\u7d44\u307f\u3042\u308f\u305b\u554f\u984c\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f (\u80cc\u666f\u306b\u3001\u5b87\u5b99\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u5316\u5408\u7269\u306e\u3057\u308b\u3057\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\u3001\u932c\u91d1\u8853\u7684\u8003\u3048\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002) \u305d\u306e\u5fdc\u7528\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u304f\u308a\u304b\u3048\u3057\u30b2\u30fc\u30e0\u3092\u9014\u4e2d\u3067\u4e2d\u65ad\u3057\u305f\u30b2\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u8ced\u3051\u91d1\u306e\u5206\u914d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u554f\u984c\u3082\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n16\u4e16\u7d00\u306eCardano\u306f\u300c\u50be\u5411\u6027\u300d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3082\u306e\u3092\u3068\u3089\u3048\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u73fe\u4ee3\u54f2\u5b66\u306e\u305d\u306e\u7528\u8a9e\u306b\u76f4\u7d50\u3059\u308b\u610f\u5473\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c7\u7ae0 \u30ed\u30a2\u30cd\u30fc\u30ba\u30fb\u30b5\u30fc\u30af\u30eb<\/strong> (1654\u5e74)<br \/>\nPascal \u3068de M&eacute;r&eacute; \u306f\u3044\u305a\u308c\u3082 Roannez \u516c\u7235\u306e\u30b5\u30ed\u30f3\u306b\u51fa\u5165\u308a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002de M&eacute;r&eacute; \u306e\u8ced\u3051\u91d1\u306e\u5206\u914d\u306e\u554f\u984c\u306bPascal\u304c(\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304fFermat\u3092\u4ecb\u3057\u3066)\u7b54\u3048\u305f\u3002<br \/>\nPascal\u306f\u300c\u7b97\u8853\u4e09\u89d2\u5f62\u300d(\u3064\u307e\u308a\u4e8c\u9805\u4fc2\u6570)\u3092\u3064\u304b\u3063\u3066\u5834\u5408\u306e\u6570\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c8\u7ae0 \u5049\u5927\u306a\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a<\/strong> (1658\u5e74?)<br \/>\n(Hacking\u306e\u8003\u3048\u3067\u306f) \u78ba\u7387\u306e\u8003\u3048\u3078\u306ePascal\u306e\u8ca2\u732e\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f \u300c\u30d1\u30b9\u30ab\u30eb\u306e\u8ced\u3051\u300d\u306e\u307b\u3046\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u3060\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306f\u300e<em>\u30d1\u30f3\u30bb<\/em>\u300f(\u51fa\u72481670\u5e74)\u306b\u3075\u304f\u307e\u308c\u305f\u795e\u3078\u306e\u4fe1\u4ef0\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u30b2\u30fc\u30e0\u8ad6\u7684\u8003\u5bdf\u3060\u3002(Hacking\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070) \u305d\u306e\u8ad6\u8a3c\u306f(\u524d\u63d0\u304c\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u306a\u306e\u3067)\u6210\u529f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7406\u8ad6 (\u4f55\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u306e\u304b\u304c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u306a\u5834\u5408\u306b\u4f55\u3092\u3059\u3079\u304d\u304b\u3092\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u7406\u8ad6)\u306e\u59a5\u5f53\u306a\u8ad6\u8a3c\u5f62\u5f0f\u3092\u793a\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c9\u7ae0 \u601d\u8003\u6cd5<\/strong> (1662\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u30dd\u30fc\u30eb \u30ed\u30ef\u30a4\u30e4\u30eb (Port-Royal)\u300e<em>\u8ad6\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u5225\u540d \u601d\u8003\u6cd5<\/em>\u300f\u306e\u7b2c4\u5dfb\u300e\u914d\u7f6e(order)\u300f\u306f Arnauld [\u30a2\u30eb\u30ce\u30fc]\u304c\u66f8\u3044\u305f\u3068\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u3068\u308a\u3042\u3052\u308b\u6700\u5f8c\u306e\u6570\u7ae0\u3092\u66f8\u3044\u305f\u306e\u306f\u5225\u4eba\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u306a\u72b6\u6cc1\u4e0b\u3067\u306e\u3001\u63a8\u8ad6\u3084\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a(Peirce\u306e\u3044\u3046\u5e30\u7d0d)\u3068\u7406\u8ad6\u5316(Peirce\u306e\u3044\u3046\u30a2\u30d6\u30c0\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3)\u3092\u3042\u3064\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u305d\u3053\u306bprobability\u304c\u73fe\u308f\u308c\u3001\u6700\u5f8c\u306e\u7ae0\u306b\u306fprobability\u306e\u91cf\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u81ea\u7136\u73fe\u8c61\u306eprobability\u3092\u6e2c\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u983b\u5ea6\u3092\u4f7f\u304a\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br \/>\nJohn Wilkins \u306e1640\u5e74\u306e\u8457\u4f5c\u3067\u306f probability \u3092\u3042\u305f\u3048\u308b\u3082\u306e\u306f(\u307e\u3060)\u6a29\u5a01\u3060\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3001\u6ca1\u5f8c\u306e1675\u5e74\u306b\u51fa\u305f\u8457\u4f5c\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5185\u7684\u8a3c\u62e0\u306b\u5909\u308f\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c10\u7ae0 \u78ba\u7387\u3068\u6cd5<\/strong> (1665\u5e74)<br \/>\nLeibniz \u306f\u3001\u6cd5\u5b66\u3092\u5b66\u3073\u3001\u6761\u4ef6\u3064\u304d\u6a29\u5229\u3068\u7d76\u5bfe\u7684\u6a29\u5229\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u8003\u3048\u305f\u3002\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u3092\u3082\u7814\u7a76\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u610f\u56f3\u306f\u8907\u5408\u89b3\u5ff5\u3084\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u547d\u984c\u3092\u767a\u898b\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u3068\u78ba\u7387\u3068\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u77e5\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f\u30d1\u30ea\u6ede\u5728\u6642(1672-76)\u3089\u3057\u3044\u3002\u78ba\u7387\u8ad6\u3092\u5076\u7136\u7684\u306a\u3067\u304d\u3054\u3068\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8ad6\u7406\u3068\u307f\u306a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u6df7\u5408\u3057\u305f\u8a3c\u62e0\u306f\u3001\u8907\u6570\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306b\u5206\u89e3\u3057\u305f\u3002(\u73fe\u4ee3\u306e\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u3067\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5206\u89e3\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u78ba\u7387\u7684\u72b6\u614b\u306f\u8003\u3048\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002)<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c11\u7ae0 \u671f\u5f85\u5024<\/strong> (1657\u5e74)<br \/>\nHuygens \u306f\u300e<em>\u904b\u307e\u304b\u305b\u30b2\u30fc\u30e0\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u8a08\u7b97\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066<\/em>\u300f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u672c\u3092\u30aa\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u8a9e\u3067\u66f8\u3044\u305f\u304c\u3001\u51fa\u7248\u306f\u30e9\u30c6\u30f3\u8a9e\u7248\u304c\u3055\u304d(1657\u5e74)\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u305d\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3001\u304b\u3051\u3054\u3068\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306e\u3069\u3093\u306a\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u516c\u5e73\u304b\u3092\u8ad6\u3058\u305f\u3002\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\u30aa\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u8a9e\u3067 kans\u3001\u30e9\u30c6\u30f3\u8a9e\u3067 expectatio\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3070\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u3002\u305d\u308c\u304c\u4eca\u306e\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u306b\u3042\u305f\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u306a\u304a\u3001\u65e5\u5e38\u8a9e\u306e\u300c\u671f\u5f85\u300d\u306f\u671f\u5f85\u5024(\u5e73\u5747\u5024)\u3067\u306a\u304f\u4e2d\u592e\u5024\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Spinoza \u3082\u3001\u30aa\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u8a9e\u3067\u66f8\u3044\u305f van der Meer \u3068\u3044\u3046\u4eba\u3042\u3066\u306e\u624b\u7d19\u306e\u4e0b\u66f8\u304d\u3067\u3053\u306e\u554f\u984c\u3092\u8ad6\u3058\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u3042\u3066\u3055\u304d\u4eba\u306f de M&eacute;r&eacute; \u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068 Hacking \u306f\u63a8\u6e2c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u8ad6\u65e8\u306f Huygens \u306b\u306a\u3089\u3063\u305f\u3082\u306e\u306e\u3088\u3046\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c12\u7ae0 \u653f\u6cbb\u7b97\u8853<\/strong> (1662\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u30ed\u30f3\u30c9\u30f3\u5e02\u306e1603\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u306e\u6d17\u793c\u3068\u57cb\u846c\u306e\u8a18\u9332\u3092\u3064\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3001Graunt\u306f1662\u5e74\u306b\u300e<em>\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u304a\u3088\u3073\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u8af8\u89b3\u5bdf<\/em>\u300f\u3092\u51fa\u3057\u305f\u3002Graunt \u3068 Petty \u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u7d71\u8a08\u3068\u305d\u308c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u7406\u89e3\u304c\u9032\u3093\u3060\u3002Petty\u4ee5\u5f8c\u3001\u8a3c\u62e0\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u8a8d\u8b58\u8ad6\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3068\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u304c\u533a\u5225\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c13\u7ae0 \u5e74\u91d1<\/strong> (1671\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u5e74\u91d1\u306e\u516c\u6b63\u306a\u4fdd\u967a\u6599\u7387\u3092\u6c7a\u3081\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8ab2\u984c\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u306f\u4eba\u53e3\u96c6\u56e3\u306e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387 (\u304a\u3088\u3073\u3001\u9577\u671f\u8cb8\u4ed8\u91d1\u5229\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec) \u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002\u30aa\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u306e\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6 de Witt \u3068\u30a2\u30e0\u30b9\u30c6\u30eb\u30c0\u30e0\u5e02\u9577 Hudde [\u30d2\u30e5\u30c3\u30c7] \u304c\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u305f\u3002\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u306e\u5e74\u9f62\u4f9d\u5b58\u6027\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u4eee\u5b9a\u304c\u3061\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u30d5\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306e\u8a71\u304c\u3064\u3065\u304f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c14\u7ae0 \u7b49\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/strong> (1678\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u73fe\u4ee3\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u7b49\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u5834\u5408\u306e\u7dcf\u6570\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u597d\u90fd\u5408\u306a\u5834\u5408\u306e\u6570\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3088\u304f\u304a\u3053\u306a\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3002(\u305d\u308c\u306f\u5faa\u74b0\u8ad6\u6cd5\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6279\u5224\u3082\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u5faa\u74b0\u8ad6\u6cd5\u306f\u3055\u3051\u3089\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8b70\u8ad6\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002) \u305d\u306e\u80cc\u666f\u306b\u306f\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u3001\u8a8d\u8b58\u8ad6\u7684\u306a\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3082\u3042\u308a\u3001\u7269\u7406\u7684\u72b6\u614b\u306e\u5076\u7136\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u304f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3001\u4e8c\u5143\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<br \/>\nLeibniz \u306f1678\u5e74\u306e\u8ad6\u6587\u3067\u3001 2\u3064\u306e\u63a8\u8ad6\u69d8\u5f0f\u3092\u3068\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306f\u5145\u8db3\u7406\u7531\u5f8b\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u3082\u3046\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306f\u7269\u7406\u7684\u306a\u7b49\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u304f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3053\u3053\u3067\u76f8\u5bfe\u983b\u5ea6\u3068\u5b9f\u73fe\u53ef\u80fd\u6027(\u50be\u5411\u6027)\u3068\u304c\u7d50\u3073\u3064\u3044\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c15\u7ae0 \u5e30\u7d0d\u8ad6\u7406<\/strong><br \/>\nLeibniz \u306f\u78ba\u7387\u3068\u3044\u3046\u77e5\u304c\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u7a2e\u985e\u306e\u8ad6\u7406\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u8003\u3048\u305f\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3053\u308c\u306f(\u547d\u984c\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u8ad6\u8a3c\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f) \u975e\u6f14\u7e79\u7684\u8a3c\u62e0\u304b\u3089\u3001\u3069\u306e\u3067\u304d\u3054\u3068\u304c\u6700\u3082\u9ad8\u3044\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u671f\u5f85\u3067\u304d\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002(\u3053\u306e\u8003\u3048\u306f\u540c\u6642\u4ee3\u306b\u306f\u7406\u89e3\u3055\u308c\u305a\u300120\u4e16\u7d00\u306e Jeffreys\u3001Keynes\u3001\u305d\u3057\u3066 Carnap \u306e\u300c\u5e30\u7d0d\u8ad6\u7406\u300d\u306b\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308b\u3002) \u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u3069\u3046\u9078\u3076\u3079\u304d\u304b\u306b\u56f0\u96e3\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002Leibniz \u306f\u5ba2\u89b3\u7684\u306b\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8003\u3048\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c16\u7ae0 \u63a8\u6e2c\u6cd5<\/strong> (1692\u5e74(?)\u30011713\u5e74\u51fa\u7248)<br \/>\nJacob Bernoulli\u306f1705\u5e74\u306b\u6ca1\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u300e<em>\u63a8\u6e2c\u6cd5<\/em>\u300f\u306f1713\u5e74\u306b\u51fa\u7248\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n\u307e\u3060\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u52a0\u6cd5\u6cd5\u5247\u304c\u78ba\u7acb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n\u3053\u306e\u672c\u306e\u7b2c4\u90e8\u3067\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u4e3b\u89b3\u7684\u306a\u8003\u3048\u304b\u305f\u304c\u660e\u793a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u4e3b\u89b3\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002Bernoulli \u306e\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u306e\u5ea6\u3042\u3044\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u4fe1\u5ff5\u306e\u5ea6\u3042\u3044\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c17\u7ae0 \u521d\u3081\u3066\u306e\u6975\u9650\u5b9a\u7406<\/strong><br \/>\nJacob Bernoulli \u306e\u300e<em>\u63a8\u6e2c\u6cd5<\/em>\u300f\u7b2c4\u90e8\u7b2c5\u7ae0\u3067\u3001\u4eca\u3067\u3044\u3046\u5927\u6570\u306e\u5f31\u6cd5\u5247\u304c\u3057\u3081\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002\u5834\u5408\u306e\u6570\u304c\u7d4c\u9a13\u7684\u306b\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002\u4eca\u306e\u8868\u73fe\u3067\u3044\u3048\u3070\u672a\u77e5\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u533a\u9593\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u305d\u306e\u63a8\u5b9a\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306e\u8a8d\u8b58\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387(\u4fe1\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u6027)\u3092\u5225\u306b\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<br \/>\nBayes\u306f1763\u5e74\u306b\u3001(\u4e8b\u524d\u78ba\u7387\u3068)\u8a66\u884c\u5f8c\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066 \u5076\u7136\u306b\u4f9d\u62e0\u3059\u308b\u78ba\u7387 p \u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092\u793a\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305d\u3053\u306b\u306f\u8a66\u884c\u5f8c\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u6761\u4ef6\u3068\u3057\u3066p\u304c\u3042\u308b\u533a\u9593\u306b\u542b\u307e\u308c\u308b\u6761\u4ef6\u3064\u304d\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3002Bernoulli\u304c\u8ad6\u3058\u305f\u306e\u306f\u305d\u308c\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001(\u8a66\u884c\u524d\u306b) p \u306e\u5024\u3092\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u8a66\u884c\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u533a\u9593\u306b\u306f\u3044\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c18\u7ae0 \u30c7\u30b6\u30a4\u30f3<\/strong><br \/>\nBernoulli \u306e\u300c\u63a8\u6e2c\u6cd5\u300d\u3067\u306f\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u5b89\u5b9a\u6027\u304c\u524d\u63d0\u3068\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002<br \/>\nArbuthnot [\u30a2\u30fc\u30d0\u30b9\u30ce\u30c3\u30c8] \u306f1710\u5e74\u3065\u3051\u3060\u304c1710\u5e74\u672b\u307e\u3067\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u542b\u3080\u8457\u4f5c\u3067\u3001\u51fa\u751f\u306e\u7537\u5973\u6bd4\u306f\u300c\u30c1\u30e3\u30f3\u30b9\u3067\u306a\u304f \u308f\u3056 \u304c\u652f\u914d\u3059\u308b\u300d\u3068\u306e\u3079\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u5b89\u5b9a\u6027\u306e\u6839\u62e0\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u795e\u3092\u3082\u3061\u3060\u3059\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3001\u6a5f\u68b0\u8ad6\u3067\u8aac\u660e\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304b\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u554f\u984c\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002(Newton\u306e\u91cd\u529b\u6cd5\u5247\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3082\u751f\u3058\u305f\u554f\u984c\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002)<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b2c19\u7ae0 \u5e30\u7d0d<\/strong> (1737\u5e74)<br \/>\nHume \u306f 1739\u5e74\u306b\u51fa\u7248\u3055\u308c\u305f\u300e<em>\u4eba\u9593\u672c\u6027\u8ad6<\/em>\u300f\u3067\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u89b3\u5bdf\u304c\u672a\u6765\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u4fe1\u5ff5\u306e\u7406\u7531\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3078\u306e\u7591\u554f\u3092\u306e\u3079\u305f\u3002\u3053\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u306f\u3001\u300c\u77e5\u8b58\u300d\u3068\u300c\u84cb\u7136\u6027\u300d\u3092\u533a\u5225\u3059\u308b\u4f1d\u7d71\u3092\u3072\u304d\u3064\u3044\u3067\u3044\u305f\u304c\u3001\u4f1d\u7d71\u3068\u9055\u3063\u3066\u300c\u77e5\u8b58\u300d\u306f\u539f\u56e0\u3092\u542b\u307e\u306a\u3044\u3082\u306e\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u3068\u7d50\u679c\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u63a8\u8ad6\u306f\u81c6\u898b\u3059\u306a\u308f\u3061\u84cb\u7136\u6027\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u300c\u539f\u56e0\u300d\u3068\u300c\u3057\u308b\u3057\u300d\u304c\u540c\u4e00\u8996\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002\u84cb\u7136\u7684\u306a\u63a8\u8ad6\u306f\u672a\u6765\u304c\u904e\u53bb\u306b\u4f3c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4eee\u5b9a\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2006\u5e74\u7248\u5e8f\u8ad6 \u78ba\u7387\u7684\u63a8\u8ad6\u306e\u8003\u53e4\u5b66<\/strong><br \/>\n\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u51fa\u73fe\u306e\u524d\u5f8c\u306e\u9055\u3044\u3092\u3001\u8457\u8005\u306f\u300c\u985e\u4f3c(resemblance)\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u7d44\u7e54\u5316\u304b\u3089\u8868\u8c61\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u7d44\u7e54\u5316\u3078\u306e\u5909\u9077\u300d\u3068\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u300c\u6700\u5f8c\u306b\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u5ea6\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u4e8c\u5143\u6027\u3068\u5e30\u7d0d\u306e\u554f\u984c\u300d\u3002\u73fe\u4ee3\u304a\u3082\u306b\u3064\u304b\u308f\u308c\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u7684\u63a8\u8ad6\u306f\u3001\u6574\u5408\u7684(coherent)\u306a\u4fe1\u5ff5\u306e\u7406\u8ad6 (\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3001\u81e8\u5e8a\u533b\u5b66\u306f\u3053\u3061\u3089)\u3068\u3001\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u76f8\u5bfe\u983b\u5ea6\u306e\u7406\u8ad6 (evidence-based\u533b\u5b66\u306f\u3053\u3061\u3089)\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3069\u3061\u3089\u3082\u5e30\u7d0d\u306e\u554f\u984c\u3092\u56de\u907f\u3057\u3001\u9053\u5fb3\u7684\u611f\u53d7\u6027\u306b\u983c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6298\u308a\u304b\u3048\u3057\u306e\u3042\u3068\u306b\u76ee\u6b21\u3092\u3064\u3051\u308b\u30022006\u5e74\u7248\u5e8f\u8ad6\u306f\u7bc0\u3054\u3068\u306e\u898b\u51fa\u3057\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u672c\u4f53\u306e\u7ae0\u306f\u7bc0\u306b\u7d30\u5206\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u76ee\u6b21\u306f\u308f\u308a\u3042\u3044\u5358\u7d14\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n<!--more--><br \/>\n== \u76ee\u6b21 ==<br \/>\n\u76ee\u6b21<br \/>\n\u51e1\u4f8b<br \/>\n\u7b2c1\u7ae0 \u6b20\u843d\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u8003\u3048<br \/>\n\u7b2c2\u7ae0 \u4e8c\u5143\u6027<br \/>\n\u7b2c3\u7ae0 \u81c6\u898b<br \/>\n\u7b2c4\u7ae0 \u8a3c\u62e0<br \/>\n\u7b2c5\u7ae0 \u3057\u308b\u3057<br \/>\n\u7b2c6\u7ae0 \u6700\u521d\u306e\u8a08\u7b97<br \/>\n\u7b2c7\u7ae0 \u30ed\u30a2\u30cd\u30fc\u30ba\u30fb\u30b5\u30fc\u30af\u30eb (1654\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u7b2c8\u7ae0 \u5049\u5927\u306a\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a (1658\u5e74?)<br \/>\n\u7b2c9\u7ae0 \u601d\u8003\u6cd5 (1662\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u7b2c10\u7ae0 \u78ba\u7387\u3068\u6cd5 (1665\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u7b2c11\u7ae0 \u671f\u5f85\u5024 (1657\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u7b2c12\u7ae0 \u653f\u6cbb\u7b97\u8853 (1662\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u7b2c13\u7ae0 \u5e74\u91d1 (1671\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u7b2c14\u7ae0 \u7b49\u53ef\u80fd\u6027 (1678\u5e74)<br \/>\n\u7b2c15\u7ae0 \u5e30\u7d0d\u8ad6\u7406<br \/>\n\u7b2c16\u7ae0 \u63a8\u6e2c\u6cd5 (1692\u5e74(?)\u30011713\u5e74\u51fa\u7248)<br \/>\n\u7b2c17\u7ae0 \u521d\u3081\u3066\u306e\u6975\u9650\u5b9a\u7406<br \/>\n\u7b2c18\u7ae0 \u30c7\u30b6\u30a4\u30f3<br \/>\n\u7b2c19\u7ae0 \u5e30\u7d0d (1737\u5e74)<br \/>\n2006\u5e74\u7248\u5e8f\u8ad6 \u78ba\u7387\u7684\u63a8\u8ad6\u306e\u8003\u53e4\u5b66<br \/>\n &#8211; 1975\u5e74\u4ee5\u5f8c\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3068\u7d71\u8a08\u306e\u6b74\u53f2<br \/>\n &#8211; \u8003\u53e4\u5b66<br \/>\n &#8211; \u73fe\u5728\u306e\u6b74\u53f2<br \/>\n &#8211; \u78ba\u7387[\u51fa\u73fe]\u306e\u524d\u5f8c\u306e\u9055\u3044<br \/>\n &#8211; \u9769\u547d\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044<br \/>\n &#8211; \u65ad\u7d76\u3068\u9023\u7d9a\u6027\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066<br \/>\n &#8211; \u5148\u99c6\u3051\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066<br \/>\n &#8211; \u533b\u8853\u3068\u6cd5<br \/>\n &#8211; \u7701\u7565\u306e\u7f6a<br \/>\n &#8211; \u5e30\u7d0d<br \/>\n &#8211; \u8fd1\u4ee3\u7684\u306a\u610f\u5473\u3067\u306e\u4e8b\u5b9f<br \/>\n &#8211; \u6700\u5f8c\u306b\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u5ea6\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u4e8c\u5143\u6027\u3068\u5e30\u7d0d\u306e\u554f\u984c<br \/>\n\u8a33\u8005\u3042\u3068\u304c\u304d<br \/>\n\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<br \/>\n\u7d22\u5f15<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ian Hacking, 1975, 2006: The Emergence of Probability. 2 ed. Cambridge University Press. \u30a4\u30a2\u30f3\u30fb\u30cf\u30c3\u30ad\u30f3\u30b0 \u8457, \u5e83\u7530 \u3059\u307f\u308c\u3001\u68ee [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dokusyo-memo-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4043"}],"version-history":[{"count":21,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4043\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10557,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4043\/revisions\/10557"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}