{"id":3853,"date":"2014-06-25T00:10:20","date_gmt":"2014-06-24T15:10:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=3853"},"modified":"2014-06-25T00:10:20","modified_gmt":"2014-06-24T15:10:20","slug":"kendal-mcguffie-ann-henderson-sellers-1987-1997-2005-2014-the-climate-modelling-primer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=3853","title":{"rendered":"Kendal McGuffie &amp; Ann Henderson-Sellers (1987, 1997, 2005, 2014) The Climate Modelling Primer"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Kendal McGUFFIE &#038; Ann HENDERSON-SELLERS, (1987, 1997, 2005), 2014: <em>The Climate Modelling Primer, Fourth Edition<\/em>. Wiley Blackwell, 438 pp. ISBN 978-1-119-94337-2 (pbk.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2014\u5e745\u6708\u3001Wiley\u793e\u306b\u672c\u3092\u6ce8\u6587\u3059\u308b\u3064\u3044\u3067\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u65b0\u520a\u6848\u5185\u3092\u898b\u305f\u3089\u3001\u524d\u304b\u3089\u77e5\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u5927\u5b66\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u306e\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u306e\u65b0\u7248\u304c\u51fa\u305f\u3070\u304b\u308a\u3060\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3064\u3044\u3067\u306b\u6ce8\u6587\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u521d\u7248\u304b\u3089\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5909\u5316\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u521d\u7248 1987\u5e74\u3001Henderson-Sellers\u304c\u7b46\u982d\u8457\u8005\u3001217\u30da\u30fc\u30b8+\u30d5\u30ed\u30c3\u30d4\u30fc\u30c7\u30a3\u30b9\u30af\u3002<br \/>\n\u7b2c2\u7248 1997\u5e74\u3001\u3053\u306e\u7248\u304b\u3089McGuffie\u304c\u7b46\u982d\u8457\u8005\u3001253\u30da\u30fc\u30b8+CD-ROM\u3002<br \/>\n\u7b2c3\u7248 2005\u5e74\u3001280\u30da\u30fc\u30b8+CD-ROM (\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u3092\u4f75\u7528)\u3002<br \/>\n\u7b2c4\u7248 2014\u5e74\u3001438\u30da\u30fc\u30b8(CD-ROM\u306a\u3057\u3001\u88dc\u8db3\u60c5\u5831\u306f\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8)<br \/>\n\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u7b2c3\u7248\u3092\u898b\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u7b2c2\u7248\u307e\u3067\u306e\u5370\u5237\u304c\u767d\u9ed2\u3060\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u7b2c4\u7248\u306f\u307b\u307c\u5168\u90e8\u306e\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u304c\u8272\u5237\u308a\u3067\u5370\u8c61\u304c\u3060\u3044\u3076\u5909\u308f\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u82f1\u8a9e\u570f\u306e\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u985e\u3067\u3088\u304f\u898b\u3089\u308c\u308b\u50be\u5411\u3060\u3057\u3001IPCC\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u3082\u7b2c3\u6b21(2001\u5e74)\u304b\u3089\u7b2c4\u6b21(2007\u5e74)\u3067\u5909\u308f\u3063\u305f\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u7b2c4\u7248\u306f\u7b2c2\u7248\u307e\u3067\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5224\u3082\u5c11\u3057\u5927\u304d\u304f\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3046\u3048\u306b\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u6570\u3082\u3075\u3048\u305f\u3002\u7b2c2\u7248\u306f\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u5927\u5b66\u306e\u534a\u5e741\u3053\u307e(90\u5206\u00d715\u56de)\u306b\u3061\u3087\u3046\u3069\u3088\u3044\u5206\u91cf\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3001\u7b2c4\u7248\u306e\u5185\u5bb9\u3092\u3053\u306a\u3059\u306b\u306f\u901a\u5e74\u90312\u56de\u304f\u3089\u3044\u304b\u304b\u308a\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u7b2c4\u7248\u306f\u56f2\u307f\u8a18\u4e8b\u304c\u7570\u5e38\u306b\u591a\u3044\u3002\u307e\u3048\u304c\u304d\u3067\u5206\u985e\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3060\u3051\u3067\u30828\u7a2e\u985e\u306e\u56f2\u307f\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u304c\u5404\u7ae0\u306b\u51fa\u3066\u304f\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002\u305d\u306e\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u306f\u95a2\u5fc3\u306e\u3042\u308b\u5b66\u751f\u306b\u5411\u3051\u305f\u30aa\u30d7\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7684\u306a\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3068\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3001\u5fc5\u9808\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306f\u305d\u308c\u307b\u3069\u3075\u3048\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u5185\u5bb9\u304c\u8c4a\u5bcc\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f\u3001\u8457\u8005\u305f\u3061\u304c\u3044\u308d\u3044\u308d\u306a\u8208\u5473\u3092\u3082\u3063\u305f\u5b66\u751f\u306b\u5411\u3051\u3066\u6388\u696d\u3092\u3057\u305f\u7d4c\u9a13\u3092\u53cd\u6620\u3055\u305b\u305f\u304b\u3089\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u53cd\u9762\u3001\u521d\u671f\u306e\u7248\u3092\u77e5\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3001\u3068\u304f\u306b\u5927\u4e8b\u306a\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3092\u3064\u304b\u307e\u3048\u305d\u3053\u306a\u3046\u5fc3\u914d\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u984c\u540d\u306f\u521d\u7248\u304b\u3089\u7b2c3\u7248\u307e\u3067\u306f<em>A Climate Modelling Primer<\/em>\u3060\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3001\u7b2c4\u7248\u3067\u306f\u5b9a\u51a0\u8a5e\u306e<em>The<\/em>\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7248\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306a\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\u3002\u5185\u5bb9\u306e\u66f4\u65b0\u306f\u4eca\u5f8c\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u304c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u88dc\u8db3\u60c5\u5831\u304c\u7f6e\u304b\u308c\u308b\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u306f\u3001\u6b21\u306e2\u3064\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u306e\u3082\u306e    www.wiley.com\/go\/mcguffie\/climatemodellingprimer<br \/>\n\u8457\u8005\u305f\u3061\u306e\u3082\u306e  www.climatemodellingprimer.net<\/p>\n<p>\u7ae0\u3060\u3066\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n1. \u306a\u305c\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3092\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b?<br \/>\n2. \u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e(\u3053\u308c\u307e\u3067\u306e)\u767a\u5c55<br \/>\n3. 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\/>\nContents<br \/>\n<strong>Preface<\/strong><br \/>\n &#8211; Learning Objectives &#8211; for the whole book<br \/>\n &#8211; Illustrative climate model understanding boxes<br \/>\n &#8211; [Illustrative climate model understanding] Boiling a frog<br \/>\n &#8211; Technical\/mathematical boxes<br \/>\n &#8211; [Tech Box 1] Very simple climate model (static version)<br \/>\n &#8211; Practical communication about climate modelling: learning by doing<br \/>\n &#8211; A, B, C to R, S, T of climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Reasons for climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Signposts to understanding<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Treasures of climate model discovery and insight<br \/>\n &#8211; [Climate Model Communication Box 1] Write a blog (diary) or tweet: action<br \/>\n &#8211; Downloadable, easy-to-use climate models to explore concepts<br \/>\n &#8211; Biographies of people who are\/have been important in climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; [Biography Box 1] Meet the modeller: Isaac Asimov<br \/>\n &#8211; [Biobraphy Box 2] Meet a modeller: Ann Henderson-Sellers and Kendal McGuffie<br \/>\n &#8211; Chapter summary<br \/>\n &#8211; [1. Summary] Research for review<br \/>\n &#8211; Chapter closing showcase<br \/>\nAcknowledgements<br \/>\nAbout the companion website<br \/>\n(Vocabulary of Climate)<br \/>\n<strong>1. Why Model Climate?<\/strong><br \/>\n &#8211; 1.1 Introduction<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.2 What is a climate model?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.2.1 Climate modelling and cooking: feeding good<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211;  [Speed Date Box 1] Gamers go-for-it: the 2007 Climate Challenge<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.2.2 Climate models are much more than code<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.3 Multiple reasons for climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on learning 1.1] Recognise the many reasons for having models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 1.1] Wath a climate model &#8216;flower&#8217;<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.3.1 Climate models test the robustness of prevailing theory<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI (climate simulation intrigues) Box 1.1] Weirdness of Water: Great greenhosue gas<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on learning 1.2] Track the history of scientific theory becoming fact<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.3.2 Climate models illuminate salient features and core uncertainties<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 1.2] Weirdness of Water: Water, water, everywhere<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Communication Box 1.1] Modelling hobbyists meeting<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 1.3] List the factors affecting planetary scale climate<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.3.3 Climate models reveal the apparently simple to be complex and vice versa<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 1.2] View the Lorenz Attractor unfolding<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 1.1] Meet the modeller: Edward N. Lorenz<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 1.3] Craft a double pendulum or crochet a Lorenz Manifold<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.3.4 Climate models raise new questions and suggest analogies<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Feedback Box 1] The &#8216;CLAW&#8217; {Charlson, Lovelock, Anderae &#038; Warren 1987}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 1.4] Explain the concept of climate feedback and give examples<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 1.4: Planetary climate model &#8211; effective temperature and surface temperature<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.3.5 Climate models expose prevailing wisdom as compatible or incompatible with existing data and hence direct collection of new data<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 1.3] Weirdness of Water: Buddy, can you spare a dime-r<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.3.6 Climate models explain<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Spotlight on Climate Models Box 1] Palaeoclimate modelling challenge {Braconnot, Harrison, Kageyama et al. 2012}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.3.7 Climate models bound (bracket) outcomes within plausible ranges<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 1.4] Weirdness of Water: Isotopes and isotopologues<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.3.8 Climate models train practitioners and educate the general public<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Model Validation Box 1] Regionalising climate with Thornthwaite {Elgundi and Grundstein 2012}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.3.9 Climate models discipline the policy dialogue<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 1.2] Meet the modeller: Stephen H. Schneider<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.3.10 Climate models encourage sensible thinking and informed discussion<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 1.3] Meet the modeller: Susan Solomon<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.4 Climate models: sound components in careful combination<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.4.1 Ingredients and method<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Wiring the World Box 1] Real wires and the real world<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.4.2 Climate model prediction: getting the right result for the correct reason<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.4.3 Climate models pushing the envelope<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Alien climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Global governance outcomes from climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 1.4] Meet the modeller: Carl Sagan<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Communication Box 1.2] Climate modelling shared with non-professionals<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 1.5] Recognise the mechanisms whereby presistent and widespread life affects climate<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.5 Climate modelling: about this book<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.5.1 Climate modelling: read the label and exercise care<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.5.2 The Climate Modelling Primer<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Showcase Box 1] Checking 20 climate models {Bender, Rodhe, Charlson, Ekman and Loeb 2006}<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.6 Summary: research and review<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 1 &#8211; Review questions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 2 &#8211; Discussion questions<br \/>\n &#8211; Your Climate Modelling Treasures<br \/>\n &#8211; Quick historical literature review<br \/>\n(History of Describing Climate Models)<br \/>\n<strong>2. The Evolution of Climate Models<\/strong><br \/>\n &#8211; 2.1 Introducing climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.1.1 The need for simplification<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Wiring the World Box 2] Simple components show complexity<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 2.1] Coincidence of co-evolution: climate chicken or computer egg?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.1.2 Resolution in time and space<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.2 Types of climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Communication Box 2] How the arts represent climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Spotlight on Climate Models Box 2] First review of climate models {Schneider and Dickinson 1974}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 2.1] Strategies for model simplification and their effect when constructing a climate model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.2.1 Energy balance climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.2.2 One-dimensional radiative-convective climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.2.3 Dimensionally constrained climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 2.2] Coincidence of co-evolution: supply or demand driven?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.2.4 General circulation models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 2.1] Meet the modeller: Joseph Smagorinsky<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.2.5 Interactive biogeochemistry and stable isotopes<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 2.2] Problems different climate model types are best suited to address<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.3 History of climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.3.1 Genesis in post-World War 2 technology<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Simulating the atmosphere<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 2.2] Meet the modeller: Suki Manabe<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Simulating the ocean<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Integrating climate<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.3.2 Evolution of climate models &#8211; not a simple timeline<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.3.2 The evolution of predictions, projections and forecasts<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 2.3] The historical development of climate modelling in the framework of technological and scientific achievement<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.4 Sensitivity of climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.4.1 Definition and terminology<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 2.3] Coincidence of co-evolution: digital data deluge<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 2.1] Feedback definitions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Feedback Box 2] Clouds {Schneider 1972}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 2.2] Models estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 2.4] Key terms associated with climate model sensitivity and how these can be used as a measure of model applicability<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.4.2 Equilibrium climatic states<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 2.3] Stability of model results<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.4.3 Equilibrium conditions and transitivity of climate systems<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Speed Date Box 2] Chaotic attractor<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.4.4 CLimate tipping points<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 2.4] Defining climate tipping points<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.5 Parameterisation of climatic processes<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.5.1 Interactions in the climate system<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 2.3] Meet the modeller: Inez Fung<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.5.2 Justifying and evaluating parameterisation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.5.3 The need for observations<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Model Validation Box 2] GISS vindicated {Hansen et al. 1981: van Oldenborgh and Haarsma 2012}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 2.5] Examples of the process of parameterisation and the represntation of tipping points in climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 2.4] Coincidence of co-evolution: 21st-century power<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.6 Simulation of the full, interacting climate system: one goal of modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.6.1 A simple model of &#8216;climate control&#8217;<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.6.2 Goals of this book and the 10 reasons for climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 2.4] Meet the modeller: Jean-Pascal van Ypersele<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Showcase Box 2] Charney&#8217;s deserts {Charney 1975}<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.7 Summary: research and review<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 1 &#8211; Review questions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 2 &#8211; Discussion questions<br \/>\n &#8211; R, S, T Keys to Climate Modelling: Resaons, Signposts and Treasures<br \/>\n &#8211; Quick historical literature review<br \/>\n(Climate Fundamentals)<br \/>\n<strong>3. Energy Balance Models<\/strong><br \/>\n &#8211; 3.1 Balancing the planetary radiation budget<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.2 The structure of energy balance models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.2.1 Zero-dimensional energy balance models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 3.1] Meet the modeller: Mikhail Budyko<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Speed Date Box 3] Daisyworld &#8211; determined daisies {Watson and Lovelock 1983}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.2.2 One-dimensional energy balance models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 3.1] Clouds and the cryosphere: energy budgets and high albedos<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 3.1] The radiative components of energy balance in climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Feedback Box 3] Sea-ice albedo {Curry, Schramm and Ebert 1995}<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.3 Parameterising the climate system for energy balance models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.3.1 Energy balance model parameters<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Albedo<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Outgoning infrared radiation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 3.2] Meet the modeller: Veerabhadran Ramanathan (Ram)<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 3.1] Sellers&#8217; latitudinal transport<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Heat transport<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.3.2 Comparing Budyko&#8217;s and Sellers&#8217; energy balance models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 3.3] Meet the modeller: Michael Ghil<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 3.2] The non-radiative components of the climate in energy balance models<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.4 Simple climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.4.1 Energy balance model &#8211; a spreadsheet climate model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.4.2 Energy balance model implementation in Xojo[TM]<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Description of the energy balance model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.4.3 Gaian geophysiology<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Spotlight on Climate Models Box 3] EBM early analysis {Gal-Chen and Schneider 1976}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 3.3] The strengths and the limitations of zero-dimensional and one-dimensional climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.5 Energy balance and glacier models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 3.2] Clouds and the cryosphere: ice sheets and isotopes<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.5.1 Isotopic EBM-like model with a dynamic ice sheet<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.5.2 Milankovitch cycles and ice sheets<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.5.3 Glaciers: energy-based components of global climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.5.4 Snowball Earth<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 3.4] The history of energy balance climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.6 Box models &#8211; another form of energy balance model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.6.1 Zonal box models that maximise planetary entropy production<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Wiring the World Box 3] Bretherton&#8217;s original and a simpler version {NASA 1988}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.6.2 A simple box model of the ocean-atmosphere<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 3.2] Box diffusion model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.6.3 MAGICC: box model development of great value<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.6.4 A coupled atmosphere, land and ocean energy balance box model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Model Validation Box 3] Checking a simple represenative concentration pathway model {Good, Gregory, Lowe and Andrews 2012}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 3.4] Meet the modeller: Gabriele (Gabi) Clarissa Hegerl<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 3.3] Clouds and the cryosphere: ice clouds, a tough challenge<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.6.5 Super simple simulator: clouds and rain in chaos<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 3.3] The Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 3.5] How to modify a zero-dimensional model to become one-, two- and even three-dimensional<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Communication Box 3] Prepare a presentation for your local council<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.7 Energy balance models: deceptively simple<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 3.4] Clouds and the cryosphere: a less cloudy future?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Showcase Box 3] Energy balance models: water on Mars {Hoffert, Callegari, Hsieh and Ziegler 1981}<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.8 Summary: research and review<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 1 &#8211; Review questions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 2 &#8211; Discussion questions<br \/>\n &#8211; R, S, T Keys to Climate Modelling: Reasons, Signposts and Treasures<br \/>\n &#8211; Quick historical literature review<br \/>\n(Simplification is Essential to Understanding)<br \/>\n<strong>4. Intermediate Complexity Models<\/strong><br \/>\n &#8211; 4.1 Why lower complexity?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Wiring the World Box 4] MESSAGE in a model<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.2 One-dimensional radiative-convective models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Speed Date Box 4] IMAGE: moving up dimensions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 4.1] Meet the modeller: James E. Hansen<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 4.1] Committing to confidence: clear communication<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.2.1 The structure of global radiative-convective models<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.3 Radiation: the driver of climate<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 4.1] Energy budget<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.3.1 Shortwave radiation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 4.2] Radiataive parameters<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Albedo<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Shortwave radiation subject to scattering<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Shortwave radaition subject to absorption<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.3.2 Longwave radiation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.3.3 Heat balance at the surface<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.3.4 Convective adjustment<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Clouds in model columns<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.4 Experiments with radiative-convective models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.4.1 One-dimensional radiative-convective model sensitivity testing<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 4.2] Committing to confidence: credibility and truth<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Sensitivity to humidity<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Sensitivity to clouds<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Senstivitity to lapse rate selected for convective adjustment<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.4.2 One-dimensional radiative-convective model applied to the very early Earth<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Model sensitivity<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 4.3] Comitting to conficence: certainty in climate<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.4.3 Development of radiative-convective models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Physics in &#8216;connecting&#8217; columns<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Convection<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Kuo convection<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Mass flux convection<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Probing cluod parameterisation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Precipitation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 4.2] Meet the Modeller: Lisa V. Alexander<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 4.3] Boundary layer stability<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Surface boundary<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.4.4 &#8216;Singling out&#8217; column models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 4.4] Eddy diffusivity<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; More complicate boundary interactions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 4.1] Parameterisation techniques that are used to simulate radiative properties of the atmosphere<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.5 Reduced complexity models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.5.1 Deterministic versus stochastic approach<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 4.5] Two-dimensional atmospheric equations<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.5.2 Parameterisations for two-dimensional statistical dynamical modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 4.6] Eddy fluxes<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 4.2] Modelling atmospheric convection and oceanic stratification and the potential for climatic cascades from these processes<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.5.3 &#8216;Column&#8217; processes in two-dimensional statistical dynamical models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Feedback Box 4] Carbon {Luo, Yan, Hui and Wallace 2001}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 4.3] The history of EMICs<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.6 The spectrum of Earth system models of intermedeiate complexity<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.6.1 An upgraded energy balance model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.6.2 Multi-column radiative-convective models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 4.3] Meet the modeller: Andr&eacute; Berger<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Communication Box 4] Prediction and policy {Thompson and Schneider 1986; Victor, Kennel and Ramanathan 2012}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 4.7] Modelling oceanic phytoplankton biomass<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 4.4] Meet the modeller: Corinne Le Qu&eacute;r&eacute;<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.6.3 A severly truncated spectral general circulation climate model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 4.4] How all aspects of a fully three-dimensional climate can be captured in a model that takes less time per simulation than a GCM<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.6.4 Repeating sctors in a global &#8216;grid&#8217; model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.6.5 A two-and-a-half dimensional model: CLIMBER-2<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.6.6 McGill palaeoclimate model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 4.4] Committing to confidence: copying climate communication<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.6.7 A simplified global climate model with water isotopologues: the LMDZ-iso GCM<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.6.8 An all-aspects, severely truncated Earth system model of intermediate complexity: MoBidiC<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.6.9 Earth system models of intermediate complexity predict future release of radiocabons from the oceans<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Model Validation Box 4] Checking the Holocene {Crucifix, Loutre, Tulkens, Fichefet and Berger 2002}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.6.10 The forthcoming interglacial protracted<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Spotlight on Climate Models Box 4] The MAGICC of volcanoes {Wigley 2006}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 4.5] The reasons why climate models of intermediate complexity are built and used<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.7 Why are some climate modellers Flatlanders?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Showcase Box 4] Costing Climate {Nordhaus 2010}<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.8 Summary: research and review<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 1 &#8211; Review questions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 2 &#8211; Discussion questions<br \/>\n &#8211; R, S, T Keys to Climate Modelling: Reasons, Signposts and Treasures<br \/>\n &#8211; Quick historical literature review<br \/>\n(Prediction: an Important Reason for Modelling)<br \/>\n<strong>5. Coupled Climate System Models<\/strong><br \/>\n &#8211; 5.1 Three-dimensional model sof the climate system<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 5.1] Climate models and the law: whether the weather&#8217;s changed<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.2 Configuring the climate<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.2.1 Finite grid formulation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Speed Date Box 5] Community Earth System Model (CESM)<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 5.1] Meet the modeller: Warren Washington<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 5.1] Gravity wave drag<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Discretisation of the ocean<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.2.2 Spectral atmospheric models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Representing the atmosphere with waves<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Structure of a spectral model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Truncation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 5.2] Slicing space spectrally<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Communication Box 5] Climate models in the mass media: review the explanation of climate modelling and model results in the mass media {Akerlof et al. 2012}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.2.3 Re-gridding the planet<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 5.1] The many ways in whcih the atmosphere, ocean, etc., are discretised so that values of the variables chosen to represent the climate can be calculated at each timestep<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.3 Computers for modelling climate<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.3.1 Computer architechture and numerical modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Machine memory<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Fitting climate into the computer<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Computer &#8216;effect&#8217; in climate model results<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biograph Box 5.2] Meet the modeller: Carlos A. Nobre<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.3.2 Coupling the climate<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Wiring the World Box 5] Nitrogen cycling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 5.2] What coupling means in the context of climate models and its importance<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.3.3 Creating cliamte ensembles<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 5.2] Climate models and the law: success and failure<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Regional &#8216;hotspots&#8217; identified from CMIP5 ensembles<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Spotlight on Climate Models Box 5] CMIP5 forcing, feedback and sensitivity {Andrews, Gregory, Webb and Taylor 2012}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Ocean oscillations and shifts probed by simple ensembles of opportunity<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Feedback Box 5] Oceaning thermohaline modelling {Yin, Schlesinger, Andronova and Li 2006}<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.4 Modelling climate components<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.4.1 Atmospheric formulation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Tech Box 5.3] Formulating atmospheric dynamics for a climate model<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 5.3] Meet the modeller: Robert E. Dickinson<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Mesoscale convection<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Superparameterisation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.4.2 Atmospheric chemsitry<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Model Validation Box 5] Coupled climate system models: cloud water ice in CMIP3 and CMIP5 {Li, Waliser, Chen et al. 2012}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.4.3 The ocean<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 5.3] Climate models and the law: work in progress &#8212; Kyoto protocol<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Oceanic co-ordinate system<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Ocean-atmosphere coupling: a significant test of climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.4.4 Carbon modelling and validating<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Modelling the global carbon budget<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 5.4] Meet the modeller: Claire Granier<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Ocean parameterisation evaluation using <sup>14<\/sup>C isotopes<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Future of the carbon budget<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.4.5 Sea-ice<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.4.6 Land surface<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Frozen land surfaces<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; &#8216;SVATS&#8217; to interactive vegatation<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 5.3] How GCM parameters that represent the climate are selected and how their selection has evolved over the history of climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.5 Localising climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.5.1 Regional climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Limited area models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [CSI Box 5.4] Climate models and the law: geoengineering governance {CBD 2010}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 5.4] Recognising a fully coupled cliamte model and understanding the limitations of its simulations<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.6 &#8216;Complete&#8217; coupled climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.6.1 Climate model prediction skills<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Evaluation of decadal predictability in CMIP5: assessing hindcast skill<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; Weather forecast skill linked to climate model improvement<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Reflection on Learning 5.5] The desire for simplification and the growth of complexity in climate modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.6.2 Earth system and climate models<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.7 Summary: research and review<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 1 &#8211; Review questions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Climate Model Showcase Box 5] Searching for real-world coupling {Koster, Dirmeyer, Guo et al. 2004}<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 2 &#8211; Discussion questions<br \/>\n &#8211; R, S, T Keys to Climate Modelling: Reasons, Signposts and Treasures<br \/>\n &#8211; Quick historical literature review<br \/>\n(Climate Model Activism)<br \/>\n<strong>6. Through the Looking Glass<\/strong><br \/>\n &#8211; 6.1 First reflection: a chef or a modeller?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Confirming Learning 1] Be familiar with the history of climate modelling and understand its achievements to date and its goals for the future<br \/>\n &#8211; 6.2 Second reflection: knowledge &#8216;boxes&#8217;<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Confirming Learning 2] Understand how climate models are used in simulations of past, future and current climates at a variety of scales<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; The global scale<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Regional scale (of global scale importance)<br \/>\n &#8211; 6.3 Third reflection: climate modelling collection<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Your Climate Modelling Treasures]<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Confirming Learning 3] Be able to assess a wide range of communication forms employed to share results from climate mocel simulations with different audiences<br \/>\n &#8211; 6.4 Fourth reflection: meeting real climate modellers<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Biography Box 6.1] Meet the modeller: Hans Joachim (John) Schellnhuber<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Confirming Learning 4] Recognise the variety of confidence and uncertainty measures associated with climate model comparisons and outputs and know how to interpret them<br \/>\n &#8211; 6.5 Fifth reflectoin: reasons for modelling<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; [Confirming Learning 5] Appreciate the ways in which results from climate models affect 21st-century policy, laws, international trade and human development<br \/>\n &#8211; 6.6 Reflections overview &#8212; book summary: research and review<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 1 &#8211; Review questions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; Part 2 &#8211; Discussion questions<br \/>\nCollected endnotes<br \/>\nHints and solutions<br \/>\nList of abbreviations<br \/>\nList of symbols<br \/>\nBibliography<br \/>\nIndex<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kendal McGUFFIE &#038; Ann HENDERSON-SELLERS, (1987, 1997, 2005), 2014: The Climate Modelling Primer, Fourth E [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dokusyo-memo-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3853\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}