{"id":3633,"date":"2014-02-02T01:12:09","date_gmt":"2014-02-01T16:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=3633"},"modified":"2014-02-02T01:12:09","modified_gmt":"2014-02-01T16:12:09","slug":"nate-silver-%e3%83%8d%e3%82%a4%e3%83%88%e3%83%bb%e3%82%b7%e3%83%ab%e3%83%90%e3%83%bc-2012-the-signal-and-the-noise-%e3%82%b7%e3%82%b0%e3%83%8a%e3%83%ab-%e3%83%8e%e3%82%a4%e3%82%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=3633","title":{"rendered":"Nate Silver [\u30cd\u30a4\u30c8\u30fb\u30b7\u30eb\u30d0\u30fc] (2012) The Signal and the Noise [\u30b7\u30b0\u30ca\u30eb &amp; \u30ce\u30a4\u30ba]"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Nate SILVER, 2012: <em>The Signal and the Noise: Why most prediction fail but some don&#8217;t<\/em>. New York: Penguin Press, 534 pp. ISBN 978-1-59420-411-1.<\/li>\n<li>[\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u7248] \u30cd\u30a4\u30c8\u30fb\u30b7\u30eb\u30d0\u30fc \u8457, \u5ddd\u6dfb \u7bc0\u5b50 \u8a33, \u897f\u5185 \u5553 \u89e3\u8aac (2013): <em>\u30b7\u30b0\u30ca\u30eb&#038;\u30ce\u30a4\u30ba &#8211;\u5929\u624d\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u306e\u300c\u4e88\u6e2c\u5b66\u300d<\/em>\u3002\u65e5\u7d4cBP\u793e\u3002 \tISBN 978-4-8222-4980-9. [\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u7248\u3092\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u300c\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2\u300d\u306b\u306f\u3001\u3068\u304d\u306b\u306f\u3001\u8aad\u307f\u7d42\u3048\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3069\u3053\u308d\u304b\u3001\u5c11\u3057\u3057\u304b\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u3044\u672c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3082\u3001\u30b3\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u66f8\u304f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3082\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3002)<\/p>\n<p>2012\u5e7412\u6708\u3001\u30b5\u30f3\u30d5\u30e9\u30f3\u30b7\u30b9\u30b3\u3078\u884c\u3063\u305f\u3068\u304d<a href=\"http:\/\/d.hatena.ne.jp\/masudako\/20121215\/1355567335\">[\u5225\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u8a18\u4e8b]<\/a>\u3001\u5b66\u4f1a\u306e\u4e2d\u4ee5\u5916\u3067\u306f\u7406\u79d1\u7cfb\u306e\u8a71\u984c\u306e\u8aad\u307f\u3082\u306e\u306e\u672c\u306b\u3042\u307e\u308a\u51fa\u4f1a\u3046\u6a5f\u4f1a\u304c\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002\u7a7a\u6e2f\u306e\u4e2d\u306e\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u306b\u306f\u96d1\u8a8c\u3092\u58f2\u308b\u5e97\u306b\u672c\u304c\u5c11\u3057\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3053\u306e\u672c\u306f\u65b0\u520a\u306e\u30cf\u30fc\u30c9\u30ab\u30d0\u30fc\u3067\u3001\u8a71\u984c\u306f\u6570\u5b66\u3089\u3057\u304f\u3001\u3081\u304f\u3063\u3066\u307f\u3066\u6c17\u8c61\u3068\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u8a71\u3082\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u8cb7\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3002\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u3068\u3053\u308d\u306f\u3001\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u5426\u5b9a\u8ad6\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306f\u308f\u304b\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3001\u3042\u307e\u308a\u30d4\u30f3\u3068\u3053\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2013\u5e741\u6708\u3001RealClimate (http:\/\/www.realclimate.org )\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e3b\u5bb0\u8005\u306e\u3072\u3068\u308a\u3067\u3042\u308bMichael E. Mann\u3055\u3093\u304c\u3001\u3053\u306e\u672c\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8aad\u8005\u306e\u30b3\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u306b\u7b54\u3048\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u3053\u306e\u672c\u306f\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c(\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u3055\u3059)\u306e\u3057\u304f\u307f\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u304c\u6b8b\u5ff5\u3060\u3001\u3068\u8a00\u3044\u3001\u81ea\u5206\u304cHuffinton Post\u306eBlog\u306b\u66f8\u3044\u305f\u66f8\u8a55<a href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/michael-e-mann\/nate-silver-climate-change_b_1909482.html\">FiveThirtyEight: The Number of Things Nate Silver Gets Wrong About Climate Change<\/a>(2012-09-24)\u3092\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f(\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u8a18\u4e8b\u306e\u984c\u540d\u306b\u306f\u5197\u8ac7\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3001Mann\u3055\u3093\u304c\u307e\u3061\u304c\u3044\u306e\u6570\u3092\u304b\u305e\u3048\u305f\u308f\u3051\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044)\u3002Silver\u6c0f\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8b70\u8ad6\u306e\u307e\u305a\u3044\u3068\u3053\u308d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u3044\u3061\u3070\u3093\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u7269\u7406\u6cd5\u5247\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306a\u306e\u306b\u3001Silver\u6c0f\u306f\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u77e5\u8b58\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u9069\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u3067\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u8aad\u3080\u672c\u306e\u3046\u3061\u3067\u3053\u308c\u306e\u512a\u5148\u9806\u4f4d\u3092\u4e0b\u3052\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3002\u8aad\u307f\u305f\u3044\u672c\u306f\u3044\u304f\u3089\u3067\u3082\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u307e\u3060\u901a\u3057\u3066\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2013\u5e74\u672b\u8fd1\u304f\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u7248\u304c\u51fa\u305f\u30022014\u5e742\u67081\u65e5\u3001\u8907\u6570\u306e\u4eba\u304cTwitter\u3067\u3001shorebird\u3055\u3093\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306e<a href=\"http:\/\/d.hatena.ne.jp\/shorebird\/20140127#1390820283\">[2014-01-27 \u66f8\u8a55\u300c\u30b7\u30b0\u30ca\u30eb\uff06\u30ce\u30a4\u30ba\u300d]<\/a>\u3092\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u7d50\u3073\u306f\u300c\u5168\u4f53\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6570\u7406\u3068\u5b9f\u52d9\u306e\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u304c\u3068\u308c\u305f\u597d\u8457\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u300d\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3069\u3046\u3084\u3089\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u9650\u308a\u3001\u3088\u3044\u672c\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3089\u3057\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nate SILVER, 2012: The Signal and the Noise: Why most prediction fail but some don&#8217;t. New York: Penguin  [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dokusyo-memo-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3633"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3633\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}