{"id":1353,"date":"2011-07-11T16:13:09","date_gmt":"2011-07-11T07:13:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=1353"},"modified":"2011-07-11T16:13:09","modified_gmt":"2011-07-11T07:13:09","slug":"parkinson-2010-%e6%b0%97%e5%80%99%e3%81%ae%e7%a0%b4%e5%b1%80%e3%81%8c%e6%9d%a5%e3%82%8b%e3%81%ae%e3%81%8b-coming-climate-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=1353","title":{"rendered":"Claire Parkinson (2010) \u6c17\u5019\u306e\u7834\u5c40\u304c\u6765\u308b\u306e\u304b? \/ Coming Climate Crisis?"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Claire L. PARKINSON, 2010: <em>Coming Climate Crisis? &#8212; Consider the past, beware the big risk<\/em>. Lanham MD USA: Rowman &amp; Littlefield, 411 pp. ISBN 978-0-7425-5615-7.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2011\u5e747\u6708\u3001\u6771\u4eac\u306e\u672c\u5c4b\u3067\u898b\u3064\u3051\u305f\u3002\u767a\u884c\u5f8c1\u5e74\u305f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u539f\u7a3f\u306f2009\u5e74\u306e\u30a4\u30ae\u30ea\u30b9East Anglia\u5927\u5b66\u306e\u96fb\u5b50\u30e1\u30fc\u30eb\u66b4\u9732\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3088\u308a\u3082\u524d\u306b\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u305f\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u8005\u306b\u3088\u308b\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306e\u89e3\u8aac\u3060\u304c\u3001\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u72ec\u7279\u306a\u8ad6\u70b9\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u6025\u3044\u3067\u8aad\u3080\u5fc5\u8981\u3092\u611f\u3058\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001NASA Goddard Space Flight Center\u3067\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u885b\u661f\u89b3\u6e2c\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3066\u4e21\u534a\u7403\u9ad8\u7def\u5ea6\u306e\u6d77\u6c37\u306e\u5b9f\u614b\u3092\u660e\u3089\u304b\u306b\u3059\u308b\u4ed5\u4e8b\u3092\u3057\u3066\u304d\u305f\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u306e\u3072\u3068\u308a\u3060\u3002NASA\u306e\u51fa\u7248\u7269(Parkinson\u307b\u304b 1987)\u3068\u3057\u3066\u51fa\u305f1973-1976\u5e74\u6bce\u6708\u306e\u5317\u6975\u6d77\u306e\u6d77\u6c37\u5206\u5e03\u56f3\u96c6\u306f\u3001\u305f\u3076\u3093\u3053\u306e\u7a2e\u985e\u306e\u8cc7\u6599\u96c6\u306e\u6700\u521d\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3068\u3066\u3082\u53c2\u8003\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u5927\u6c17\u30fb\u6d77\u6d0b\u5927\u5faa\u74b0\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u521d\u671f\u304b\u3089\u53d6\u308a\u7d44\u3093\u3060\u4eba\u306e\u3072\u3068\u308a\u3067\u3042\u308bWarren Washington\u3068\u5171\u8457\u3067\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u3082\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u3092\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u308f\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u5b66\u90e8\u3067\u306f\u6570\u5b66\u3092\u5c02\u653b\u3057\u3001\u5927\u5b66\u9662\u306fOhio\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u3067(Lonnie Thompson, Ellen Mosley-Thompson\u3068\u3044\u3063\u3057\u3087\u306b)\u96ea\u6c37\u5b66\u3092\u5c02\u653b\u3057\u305f\u304cNational Center for Atmospheric Research\u3067\u3082\u6307\u5c0e\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u3066\u6d77\u6c37\u306e\u6570\u5024\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3092\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u306e\u3060\u3002\u4eca\u5ea6\u306e\u672c\u3082\u3001\u305d\u3046\u3044\u3046\u4eba\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u5316\u306e\u89e3\u8aac\u3060\u304b\u3089\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u306f\u3057\u3063\u304b\u308a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3068\u304f\u306b\u6d77\u6c37\u306e\u8a71\u984c\u306e\u6271\u3044\u306f\u304a\u3082\u3057\u308d\u3044\u3002\u307e\u305f\u5c02\u9580\u5916\u306e\u4eba\u304c\u8aa4\u89e3\u3057\u305d\u3046\u306a\u3068\u3053\u308d\u306f\u7d30\u304b\u304f\u8aac\u660e\u3092\u88dc\u3046\u304f\u3075\u3046\u3082\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u672c\u304c\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u305f\u52d5\u6a5f\u306f\u3001\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u304c\u4eba\u9593\u793e\u4f1a\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u5371\u967a\u306a\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u306b\u9054\u3057\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046\u898b\u901a\u3057\u304b\u3089\u3001geoengineering (\u6749\u5c71\u660c\u5e83(2011)<a href=\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=1010\">[\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2]<\/a>\u306e\u7528\u8a9e\u3067\u306f\u300c\u6c17\u5019\u5de5\u5b66\u300d)\u3068\u547c\u3070\u308c\u308b\u601d\u3044\u5207\u3063\u305f\u624b\u6bb5\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3060\u3068\u4e3b\u5f35\u3059\u308b\u4eba\u304c\u3075\u3048\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3002\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001geoengineering\u81ea\u4f53\u306b\u3082\u5371\u967a\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u614e\u91cd\u306b\u3057\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3044\u3051\u306a\u3044\u3068\u4e3b\u5f35\u3059\u308b\u3002\u4eba\u70ba\u7684\u306a\u6c17\u8c61\u6539\u5909\u3084\u74b0\u5883\u6539\u5909\u3067\u610f\u56f3\u3057\u306a\u3044\u307e\u305a\u3044\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u751f\u3058\u305f\u4f8b\u3092\u3044\u308d\u3044\u308d\u3042\u3052\u3066\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u6539\u5909\u306b\u3082\u540c\u69d8\u306a\u5fc3\u914d\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3068\u8ad6\u3058\u308b(\u3053\u306e\u8ad6\u70b9\u306b\u9650\u308c\u3070\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u5bb6Fleming (2010)\u306e\u672c\u304c\u8a73\u3057\u3044\u304c)\u3002\u3053\u3053\u3067\u3044\u3046geoengineering\u306f\u3001\u6210\u5c64\u570f\u30a8\u30fc\u30ed\u30be\u30eb\u3084\u4eba\u5de5\u7269\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u592a\u967d\u653e\u5c04\u306e\u53cd\u5c04\u3092\u3075\u3084\u3059\u7b56\u3084\u3001\u5927\u6c17\u4e2d\u306e\u4e8c\u9178\u5316\u70ad\u7d20\u3092\u6e1b\u3089\u3059\u3053\u3068\u3092\u306d\u3089\u3063\u3066\u6d77\u6d0b\u30d7\u30e9\u30f3\u30af\u30c8\u30f3\u306b\u9244\u3084\u305d\u306e\u307b\u304b\u306e\u6804\u990a\u7269\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u7b56\u306a\u3069\u3092\u542b\u3080\u304c\u3001\u5927\u6c17\u304b\u3089\u4eba\u5de5\u7684\u306b\u4e8c\u9178\u5316\u70ad\u7d20\u3092\u53d6\u308a\u9664\u304f\u7b56\u306f\u542b\u3081\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3010\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3057\u3066\u6700\u521d\u306bgeoengineering\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7528\u8a9e\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305fMarchetti (1977)\u306e\u6d77\u306b\u4e8c\u9178\u5316\u70ad\u7d20\u3092\u653e\u51fa\u3059\u308b\u7b56\u306f\u3001\u308f\u3056\u308f\u3056\u542b\u3081\u305f\u3046\u3048\u3067\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u9178\u6027\u5316\u3092\u4fc3\u9032\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\u74b0\u5883\u5bfe\u7b56\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u8a8d\u3081\u3089\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u304b\u3089\u898b\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5927\u6c17\u3078\u306e\u6392\u51fa\u3092\u7d9a\u3051\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306b\u751f\u3058\u308b\u6d77\u6d0b\u306e\u8868\u9762\u4ed8\u8fd1\u3060\u3051\u306e\u5f37\u3044\u9178\u6027\u5316\u3092\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u5185\u90e8\u306b\u8584\u3081\u3089\u308c\u305f\u9178\u6027\u5316\u3067\u7f6e\u304d\u304b\u3048\u305f\u307b\u3046\u304c\u307e\u3057\u3060\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4fa1\u5024\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u3042\u308a\u3046\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057Marchetti\u306e\u539f\u6587(\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u898b\u305f\u306e\u306f1976\u5e74\u306e\u6280\u8853\u5831\u544a\u3060\u304c)\u3067\u306f\u6d77\u6d0b\u9178\u6027\u5316\u304c\u7de9\u548c\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3068\u306f\u8a00\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001Parkinson\u304c\u5358\u7d14\u306b\u5426\u5b9a\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u306b\u81f3\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3082\u7121\u7406\u3082\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p>\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u306f\u5b8c\u5168\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001IPCC\u7b2c4\u6b21\u5831\u544a\u66f8(\u7b2c1\u90e8\u4f1a\u306e\u5dfb)\u306e\u4e3b\u8981\u7d50\u8ad6\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5c02\u9580\u79d1\u5b66\u8005\u306e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u306e\u5408\u610f\u70b9\u3082\u3082\u3057\u304b\u3057\u305f\u3089\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3092\u3001\u304f\u308a\u304b\u3048\u3057\u8ff0\u3079\u308b\u3002\u3068\u304f\u306b\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3092\u8868\u73fe\u3057\u304d\u308c\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u5f37\u8abf\u3059\u308b\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u304c\u672c\u6765\u542b\u3093\u3067\u3044\u308b\u61d0\u7591\u7cbe\u795e\u3092\u91cd\u8996\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u61d0\u7591\u8ad6\u306b\u8cdb\u540c\u306f\u3057\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u61d0\u7591\u8ad6\u8005\u3092\u8b70\u8ad6\u304b\u3089\u6392\u9664\u3059\u308b\u3079\u304d\u3067\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002(\u305f\u3060\u3057Thompson\u306b\u3088\u308b\u5e8f\u6587\u306f\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u61d0\u7591\u8ad6\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3063\u3068\u304d\u3073\u3057\u3044\u3002\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u61d0\u7591\u8ad6\u8005\u306e\u3046\u3061\u3060\u308c\u306b\u6ce8\u76ee\u3059\u308b\u304b\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u614b\u5ea6\u304c\u5909\u308f\u308b\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002Parkinson\u304c\u91cd\u8996\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u306fRoy Spencer\u3001Lindzen\u3001Willie Soon\u3060\u3002\u3053\u306e\u3046\u3061Soon\u306f\u3001Parkinson\u306b\u306f(\u4f1a\u8a71\u3067)\u307e\u3058\u3081\u306a\u79d1\u5b66\u8005\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5370\u8c61\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u305f\u3088\u3046\u3060\u304c\u3001\u4ed6\u306e\u4e3b\u6d41\u306e\u79d1\u5b66\u8005\u304c(\u8ad6\u6587\u3092\u8aad\u3093\u3067)\u3064\u307e\u307f\u98df\u3044(cherry-picking)\u7684\u3060\u3068\u5224\u65ad\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308a &#8211;\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070<a href=\"http:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/archives\/2011\/07\/how-soon-is-now\/\">\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u300cRealClimate\u300d\u306e2011\u5e747\u67087\u65e5\u306eGavin Schmidt\u6c0f\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b<\/a>&#8211;\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3082\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u3068\u601d\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3002)<\/p>\n<p>\u8457\u8005\u306e\u614b\u5ea6\u306f\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u304c\u300c\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u3092\u904e\u4e0d\u8db3\u306a\u304f\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u300d<a href=\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/ja\/essay\/ondanka_rikai.html\">[\u5225\u8a18\u4e8b\u53c2\u7167]<\/a>\u3068\u8ff0\u3079\u305f\u306e\u3068\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u306b\u540c\u3058\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u5bfa\u7530\u5bc5\u5f66\u6d41<a href=\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/ja\/sayings\/fear_ja.html\">[\u5225\u8a18\u4e8b\u53c2\u7167]<\/a>\u306b\u8a00\u3048\u3070\u300c\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u3092\u6b63\u5f53\u306b\u3053\u308f\u304c\u308b\u300d\u3079\u304d\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002\u3068\u3053\u308d\u304c\u3001\u300c\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u3092\u3053\u308f\u304c\u308a\u3059\u304e\u308b\u300d\u3042\u307e\u308a\u3001\u3082\u3063\u3068\u5371\u967a\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u7b56\u3092(\u5145\u5206\u3053\u308f\u304c\u3089\u305a\u306b)\u9032\u3081\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u4eba\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u304d\u305d\u3046\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u8b66\u6212\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3060\u304c\u6700\u8fd1\u306egeoengineering\u63a8\u9032\u8ad6\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u306f\u3001Lomborg <a href=\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=1104\">[<em>Smart Solutions to Climate Change<\/em>\u306e\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2]<\/a>\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u3092\u3053\u308f\u304c\u3089\u306a\u3044\u7acb\u5834\u304b\u3089\u3001\u3053\u3046\u3044\u3046\u5bfe\u7b56\u3082\u7528\u610f\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3055\u3089\u306b\u5b89\u5fc3\u3060\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3065\u3051\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002Parkinson\u306fLomborg\u306b\u306f\u8cdb\u540c\u306f\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3082\u306e\u306e\u308f\u308a\u3042\u3044\u597d\u610f\u7684\u306b\u6271\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u3001Lomborg\u306egeoengineering\u306b\u671f\u5f85\u3059\u308b\u767a\u8a00\u3092\u898b\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3089\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306b\u5bfe\u6297\u3059\u308b\u8b70\u8ad6\u3092\u7d44\u307f\u7acb\u3066\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u3092\u611f\u3058\u305f\u306b\u3061\u304c\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306f\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u3092\u542b\u3080\u306e\u306b\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u8005\u304c\u78ba\u5b9f\u306a\u3082\u306e\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8ff0\u3079\u308b(\u8ff0\u3079\u3055\u305b\u3089\u308c\u308b)\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306f\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u306f\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6839\u62e0\u306e\u306a\u3044geoengineering\u63a8\u9032\u8ad6\u306b\u6839\u62e0\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u5371\u967a\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u3001\u78ba\u304b\u306b\u305d\u3046\u3044\u3046\u56e0\u679c\u9023\u9396\u3082\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u5225\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3082\u540c\u6642\u306b\u50cd\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u61d0\u7591\u8ad6\u8005\u306f\u3001(\u610f\u56f3\u7684\u306a\u64cd\u4f5c\u304b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u767a\u8a00\u304b\u306f\u3068\u3082\u304b\u304f)\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u77e5\u898b\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u3092\u5f37\u8abf\u3057\u3066\u63d0\u793a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u304f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u82f1\u8a9e\u570f\u306e\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u4fdd\u5b88\u7cfb\u306e\u30de\u30b9\u30e1\u30c7\u30a3\u30a2\u306e\u8aad\u8005\u30fb\u8996\u8074\u8005\u306e\u8a8d\u8b58\u306b\u304b\u306a\u308a\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u306e\u3060(\u6587\u732e\u3072\u3068\u307e\u305a\u7701\u7565)\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>James Rodger FLEMING, 2010: <em>Fixing the Sky &#8212; The checkered history of weather and climate control<\/em>. New York: Columbia University Press, 325 pp.<\/li>\n<li>Cesare MARCHETTI, 1976: On geoengineering and the CO<sub>2<\/sub> problem. Research Memoranda RM-76-17, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, www.iiasa.ac.at\/Admin\/PUB\/Documents\/RM-76-017.pdf .<\/li>\n<li>Cesare MARCHETTI, 1977: On geoengineering and the CO<sub>2<\/sub> problem. <em>Climatic Change<\/em>, <strong>1<\/strong>, 59-68, DOI: 10.1007\/BF00162777 [\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u307e\u3060\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u3044].<\/li>\n<li>Claire L. PARKINSON et al., 1987: <em>Arctic Sea Ice, 1973-1976 : Satellite Passive-Microwave Observations<\/em> (NASA SP 489).  Washington, DC : Scientific and Technical Information Branch, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 296 pp.<\/li>\n<li>Warren M. WASHINGTON and Claire L. PARKINSON, (\u521d\u7248 1986), 2005: Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling (2 ed.). University Science Books, 368 pp.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6298\u308a\u8fd4\u3057\u306e\u5148\u306b\u8a73\u3057\u3044\u76ee\u6b21\u3092\u66f8\u304d\u306c\u3044\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3002<br \/>\n<!--more--><br \/>\n=====<br \/>\nContents [vii-viii]<br \/>\nForward by Lonnie G. Thompson ix<br \/>\nPreface xiii[-xix]<br \/>\n. Acknowledgments<br \/>\n<strong>= Part 1.  The Earth System and Its Ever-Changing Nature =<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>1. Introduction<\/strong> 3<br \/>\n. Reasons for the confusion<br \/>\n. The earth system<br \/>\n. The earth&#8217;s radiation budget<br \/>\n. The atmosphere<br \/>\n.. Atmospheric structure<br \/>\n.. Overall gas composition of the atmosphere<br \/>\n.. Ozone<br \/>\n.. Aerosols<br \/>\n.. Volcanic emissions and their impact on temperature<br \/>\n. The oceans<br \/>\n.. Ocean\/atmosphere exchanges<br \/>\n.. Heat redistribution: Ocean circulation and the ocean conveyor<br \/>\n.. Sea level<br \/>\n. The earth&#8217;s ice cover<br \/>\n.. Land ice<br \/>\n.. Sea ice<br \/>\n. Positive and negative feedbacks in the climate system<br \/>\n. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<br \/>\n. Preview<br \/>\n<strong>2. 4.6 Billion Years of Global Change<\/strong> 27<br \/>\n. Earth&#8217;s first 2.1 billion years, encompassing the Hedean and Archean eons<br \/>\n(4.6 billion years ago to 2.5 billion years ago)<br \/>\n. Proterozoic eon (2.5 billion years ago to 542 million years ago)<br \/>\n. Paleozoic era (542 million years ago to 251 million years ago)<br \/>\n. Mesozoic era (251 million years ago to 65 million years ago)<br \/>\n. Cenozoic era (65 million years ago to the present)<br \/>\n. Synopsis<br \/>\n<strong>3. Abrupt Climate Change<\/strong> 73<br \/>\n. Growing awareness of abrupt changes<br \/>\n. Dansgaard-Oeschger events\/oscillations and Heinrich events<br \/>\n. The Younger Dryas and the later cold event about 8,200 years ago<br \/>\n. The global impact of climate change<br \/>\n. Current relevance<br \/>\n<strong>= Part 2. The Human Factor =<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>4. A Short History of Human Impacts<\/strong> 93<br \/>\n. Early extinctions perhaps caused in part by human hunter\/gatherers<br \/>\n. From agriculture to industrialization<br \/>\n. The industrial revolution<br \/>\n. Changing atmospheric composition and its relationship to temperature<br \/>\n. Global warming<br \/>\n. Consequences of warming and increased CO2<br \/>\n.. Sea level rise<br \/>\n.. Land ice decreases<br \/>\n.. Arctic sea ice decreases<br \/>\n.. Decaying permafrost<br \/>\n.. Ocean acidification and affected marine life<br \/>\n.. Damaged coral reefs<br \/>\n.. Additional effects of warming on plant and animal life<br \/>\n.. Favorable cnsequences of warming<br \/>\n. Other modern human impacts<br \/>\n.. Impacts of humans on other species<br \/>\n.. Impacts of siphoning water for irrigation; the case of the Aral Sea<br \/>\n.. Damage to the stratospheric ozone layer<br \/>\n<strong>5. The Future: Why Some People Are So Concerned while Others Aren&#8217;t<\/strong> 125<br \/>\n. Concerns highlighted by the IPCC and others<br \/>\n.. Further warming<br \/>\n.. Enhanced warming through positive feedbacks<br \/>\n.. Enhanced warming from pollution reductions<br \/>\n.. Sea level rise<br \/>\n.. Reduced availability of freshwater<br \/>\n.. Ocean acidification and marine biology<br \/>\n.. Species diversity and extinctions<br \/>\n.. Spread of diseases<br \/>\n.. Abrupt climate change and a shutdown of the global ocean conveyor<br \/>\n.. More frequent of more intense hurricanes<br \/>\n. The possibility that the projections are overly dire<br \/>\n.. Projected favorable consequences of warming<br \/>\n.. Negative feedbacks in the climate system<br \/>\n. The issue of the skeptics<br \/>\n<strong>= Part 3. Good Intentions and Geoengineering =<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>6. Good Intentions Gone Awry<\/strong> 151<br \/>\n. The 1665 London plague<br \/>\n. The 1810 runaway Vermont pond<br \/>\n. Introduction of invasive species<br \/>\n. Intentional removal of native species<br \/>\n. Forest management<br \/>\n. Dams<br \/>\n. Other water management<br \/>\n. Leaded gasoline and paint<br \/>\n. The case of chlorofluorocarbons<br \/>\n. Albedo changes from reforestation<br \/>\n. Favorable unintended consequences<br \/>\n<strong>7. Geoengineering Schemes<\/strong> 165<br \/>\n. Disposal of excess CO2 in the deep ocean<br \/>\n. Carbon capture and storage<br \/>\n. Aerosol injection into the atmosphere<br \/>\n. Injection of other small reflectors into the atmosphere<br \/>\n. Shielding the earth from afar<br \/>\n. Placing reflective white plastic over desert areas<br \/>\n. Modification of ocean reflectivity<br \/>\n. Damming the Bering Strait<br \/>\n. Earlier suggestions for geoengineering the Arctic<br \/>\n. Damming the Strait of Gibraltar<br \/>\n. Iron fertilization of the oceans<br \/>\n. Injection or additional ozone into the stratosphere<br \/>\n. Injection of ethane or propane into the Antarctic stratosphere<br \/>\n. Modifying the earth&#8217;s orbit<br \/>\n. Further reading<br \/>\n. Slippery slope or reasonable accommodation?<br \/>\n<strong>8. The Record on Smaller-Scale Attempted Modifications<\/strong> 193<br \/>\n. Rainmaking, or enhanced precipitation<br \/>\n. Hail suppression<br \/>\n. Taming hurricanes<br \/>\n. Legal complications<br \/>\n. Engineering the Netherlands<br \/>\n<strong>= Part 4. Further Cautionary Considerations =<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>9. The Possible Fallibility of Even a Strong Consensus<\/strong> 215<br \/>\n. Ice age theories<br \/>\n. CO2\/climate connection and whether human impacts are favorable or unfavorable<br \/>\n. Qualifier<br \/>\n<strong>10. The Unknown Future: Model Limitations<\/strong> 235<br \/>\n. Selected IPCC-highlighted strengths and limitations of climate models<br \/>\n. Concerns<br \/>\n. Tuning<br \/>\n. Incompleteness of the models<br \/>\n. Implications of the incompleteness of the models<br \/>\n.. Polar amplification of climate change<br \/>\n.. Polar stratospheric clouds and ozone depletion<br \/>\n.. Propagating impacts of changes in the stratosphere<br \/>\n.. Moulins and sea level rise<br \/>\n.. Sources of the greenhouse gas methane<br \/>\n.. Underestimating versus overestimating climate change<br \/>\n. Uncertainties in modeled climate sensitivity<br \/>\n. Data limitations and climate complexity<br \/>\n<strong>11. Compounding Social Pressures<\/strong> 259<br \/>\n. The case of polar sea ice<br \/>\n. The broader case of global change<br \/>\n. Treatment of the skeptics<br \/>\n. Peer review and advantages of being in the majority<br \/>\n. Other problems internal to the science community<br \/>\n. Media issues<br \/>\n. August 13, 2007, Newsweek cover story<br \/>\n. The April 2007 Galileo&#8217;s legacy conference<br \/>\n. Closing comment<br \/>\n<strong>= Part 5. Avoiding Paralysis despite Uncertainty =<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>12. What Are the Alternatives?<\/strong> 295<br \/>\n. Sample progress<br \/>\n.. Progress on environmental problems outside the global warming context<br \/>\n.. Progress relevant to global warming<br \/>\n. What more should be done?<br \/>\n.. Suggestions for individuals<br \/>\n.. Plane travel<br \/>\n.. Suggestions beyond the individual level<br \/>\n.. Sources for additional suggestions<br \/>\n. Can enough be done?<br \/>\n.. Stabilization wedges<br \/>\n.. A single-country example: The United Kingdom<br \/>\n. Reasons for hope<br \/>\n<strong>13. Closing Plea<\/strong> 323<br \/>\nAbbreviations 337<br \/>\nNotes 341<br \/>\nReferences 359<br \/>\nIndex 395<br \/>\nAbout the Author 411<br \/>\n=====<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Claire L. PARKINSON, 2010: Coming Climate Crisis? &#8212; Consider the past, beware the big risk. Lanham MD US [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dokusyo-memo-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1353"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1353\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}