{"id":12955,"date":"2025-10-26T18:13:43","date_gmt":"2025-10-26T09:13:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=12955"},"modified":"2025-10-28T20:58:44","modified_gmt":"2025-10-28T11:58:44","slug":"bruce-m-s-campbell-2016-the-great-transition-climate-disease-and-society-in-the-late-medieval-world-%e8%ab%ab%e6%97%a9-2025-%e3%81%8c%e5%bc%95%e7%94%a8%e3%81%97%e3%81%9f%e5%9b%b3%e3%81%ae","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=12955","title":{"rendered":"Bruce M. S. Campbell (2016) The Great Transition &#8212; Climate, Disease and Society in the Late Medieval World (\u8aeb\u65e9 2025 \u304c\u5f15\u7528\u3057\u305f\u56f3\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u51fa\u5178\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u30e1\u30e2)"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Bruce M. S. Campbell, 2016: <em>The Great Transition: Climate, Disease and Society in the Late Medieval World<\/em> (The 2013 Ellen McArthur lectures). Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-19588-1 (hardback), 978-0-521-14443-8 (paperback)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2016\u5e74\u306b\u3067\u305f\u672c\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f2025\u5e7410\u6708\u306b \u96fb\u5b50\u7248\u3092 (\u6587\u5b57\u5217\u691c\u7d22\u3092\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7406\u7531\u3067\u7d00\u4f0a\u56fd\u5c4b\u66f8\u5e97\u3067) \u8cb7\u3063\u305f\u3002\u96fb\u5b50\u7248\u306b\u306f\u30cf\u30fc\u30c9\u30ab\u30d0\u30fc\u306eISBN\u304c\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u5024\u6bb5\u306f\u30da\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30d0\u30c3\u30af\u306a\u307f\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002\u7d19\u7248\u306e\u5224\u578b\u306f\u77e5\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u308f\u305f\u3057\u304c\u3053\u306e\u672c\u3092\u8cb7\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f\u3001\u8aeb\u65e9 \u5eb8\u4e00 (2025) \u300e<em>\u30e6\u30fc\u30e9\u30b7\u30a2\u53f2\u306e\u306a\u304b\u306e\u30e2\u30f3\u30b4\u30eb\u5e1d\u56fd<\/em>\u300f <a href=\"\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=12939>[\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2]<\/a> \u306e\u306a\u304b\u3067\u3064\u304b\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u6c17\u5019\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u51fa\u5178\u304c\u672c\u66f8\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u305d\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u6839\u62e0\u306b\u3055\u304b\u306e\u307c\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u672c\u66f8\u3092\u898b\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304b\u3089\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u305d\u306e\u4ef6\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3072\u3068\u3068\u304a\u308a\u78ba\u8a8d\u3067\u304d\u3066\u3001\u3069\u3053\u304b\u306b\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u304a\u304f\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5f62\u3092\u3068\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3057\u305f\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u3061\u304b\u3054\u308d\u306e\u7fd2\u6163\u3067\u3001\u76ee\u6b21\u306e\u66f8\u304d\u306c\u304d\u3092\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u306e\u4e0b\u306b\u3064\u3051\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u307e\u3060\u672c\u66f8\u3092\u5b9f\u8cea\u7684\u306b\u8aad\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u304a\u3053\u3068\u308f\u308a\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e8f\u6587\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u8457\u8005\u306f\u30011970\u5e74\u4ee3 post-doc \u3068\u3057\u3066 Alan Baker \u306e\u3082\u3068\u3067\u300cthe massive economic and demographic impacts of the Great European Famine of 1315-22 and Black Death of 1348-9\u300d\u3092\u7814\u7a76\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u3082\u305d\u308c\u304c\u95a2\u5fc3\u306e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u306b\u3042\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c1\u7ae0\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u8457\u8005\u304c\u5bfe\u8c61\u3068\u3059\u308b\u5730\u57df\u306f\u3001\u304a\u3082\u306b\u3001\u30e9\u30c6\u30f3\u8a9e\u306e\u8056\u66f8\u306b\u3082\u3068\u3065\u304f\u30ad\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u6559\u304c\u3072\u308d\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5730\u57df (\u300cLatin Christendom\u300d) \u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u8a71\u984c\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u306f\u3001\u30e6\u30fc\u30e9\u30b7\u30a2\u3001\u5317\u534a\u7403\u3001\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u306b\u3072\u308d\u3052\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002\u300cthe Great Transition\u300d\u304c\u304a\u304d\u305f\u3068\u8a00\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u6642\u4ee3\u306f\u30011260\u5e74\u4ee3\u304b\u30891470\u5e74\u4ee3\u307e\u3067\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u305d\u308c\u3092\u30011260-70\u5e74\u4ee3\u304b\u30891340\u5e74\u4ee3\u307e\u3067\u306e\u7b2c1\u671f\u30011340-1370\u5e74\u4ee3\u306e\u7b2c2\u671f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u306e\u767e\u5e74\u9593\u306e\u7b2c3\u671f\u3068\u308f\u3051\u308b\u3002\u3044\u3061\u3070\u3093 dramatic \u306a\u306e\u306f\u7b2c2\u671f\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>===== \u56f3 1.1 \u3068 \u56f3 2.9 \u306e\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u51fa\u5178\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u30e1\u30e2 \u3053\u3053\u304b\u3089 =====<br \/>\n\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306e\u5f53\u9762\u306e\u76ee\u7684\u306f\u3001\u8aeb\u65e9 (2025) \u306e\u672c\u306b\u5f15\u7528\u3055\u308c\u305f\u56f3 (\u672c\u66f8\u306e Figure 1.1 \u3068 Figure 2.9) \u306e\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u51fa\u5178\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u56f3\u306e caption \u3068\u3001\u5dfb\u672b\u306b\u3042\u308b References \u3068\u3092\u3064\u306a\u3052\u308c\u3070\u3001\u51fa\u5178\u60c5\u5831\u306f\u305d\u308d\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3068\u3053\u308d\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u591a\u304f\u304c\u300cIGBP\u300d\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u56fd\u969b\u5171\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30e0 International Geosphere-Biosphere Program \u306b\u3061\u304c\u3044\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30e0\u306f\u7d42\u308f\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u3082\u306e\u3053\u3063\u3066\u306f\u3044\u308b\u304c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u3089\u3057\u3044\u3082\u306e\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002References\u306e\u6700\u521d\u306b\u3042\u308b\u8aac\u660e\u3092\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3044\u3046\u300cIGBP\u300d\u306f\u3001IGBP \u306e\u3046\u3061\u306e PAGES (\u3053\u308c\u306f pastglobalchanges.org \u3067\u7d99\u7d9a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b) \u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u5408\u8846\u56fd NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) \u306e Paleoclimatology Program \u304c\u7dad\u6301\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u96c6\u3092\u3055\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002Paleoclimatology Program \u306f\u3044\u307e\u3082\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001NOAA \u306e\u306a\u304b\u306e\u7d44\u7e54\u6539\u7de8\u3067 NCDC \u306f National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) \u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002NCEI \u306e Paleo \u306e\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u3067\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u300cIGBP # 2010-135\u300d\u306a\u3069\u306e\u756a\u53f7\u3092\u691c\u7d22\u3057\u3066\u3082\u898b\u3064\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u305d\u306e\u8457\u8005\u540d\u3084\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u30ad\u30fc\u30ef\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u691c\u7d22\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3089\u3057\u3044\u3082\u306e\u304c\u898b\u3064\u304b\u308b\u30022010 \u306a\u3069\u306e\u5e74\u304c\u4e00\u81f4\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u305f\u3044\u3066\u3044\u8ad6\u6587\u306b\u3068\u3082\u306a\u3046\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3067\u3001\u8ad6\u6587\u306e\u51fa\u7248\u5e74\u3068\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304cNCDC\u306b\u767b\u9332\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5e74\u304c\u3061\u304c\u3046\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046 (\u540c\u3058\u4eba\u304c\u8907\u6570\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3092\u767b\u9332\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3042\u3044\u307e\u3044\u306b\u306a\u308b\u5fc3\u914d\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304c)\u3002\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u610f\u5473\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u77e5\u8b58\u6e90\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u8ad6\u6587\u306e URL \u3092\u3042\u3052\u308b\u3079\u304d\u3060\u304c\u3001NCEI \u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u307f\u308c\u3070\u8ad6\u6587\u306e\u66f8\u8a8c\u60c5\u5831\u306f\u308f\u304b\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u8aac\u660e\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306e URL \u3092\u3042\u3052\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f NCDC Paleo \u30921990\u5e74\u4ee3\u304b\u3089\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u30ab\u30f3\u304c\u306f\u305f\u3089\u304f\u306e\u3060\u304c\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u8aad\u8005\u306e\u304a\u304a\u304f\u306f\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u305f\u3069\u308a\u3064\u3051\u306a\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u304a\u3082\u3046\u3002\u305d\u308c\u3067\u3001\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u304f\u308f\u3057\u3081\u306b\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 1.1<\/strong><br \/>\n(A) Indexed solar irradiance, global temperatures and northern hemisphere temperatures, 1200 &#8211; 1500.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Delaygue and Bard 2010b: Antarctic last millennium 10Be stack and solar irradiance reconstruction. IGBP # 2010-035 &#8230; NCEI Paleo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25921\/n34k-4f80<\/li>\n<li>Vieira and others 2011: <em>Astronomy &#038; Astrophysics<\/em> <strong>531<\/strong>: A6, 20 pp. &#8230; \u8ad6\u6587 https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1051\/0004-6361\/201015843\n<li>Loehle and McCulloch 2008: <em>Energy &#038; Environment<\/em> <strong>19<\/strong> (1): 93-100 &#8230; Campbell \u306e\u672c\u306e\u6ce8\u306b\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b URL \u306b\u30a2\u30af\u30bb\u30b9\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3064\u304e\u306e URL \u306b\u8a98\u5c0e\u3055\u308c\u3001\u305d\u3053\u306b\u8ad6\u6587\u672c\u6587\u3068\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002https:\/\/www.asc.ohio-state.edu\/mcculloch.2\/AGW\/Loehle\/\n<li>Mann and others 2008: <em>PNAS<\/em> <strong>105<\/strong> (36): 13252-7 &#8230; \u672c\u306e\u6ce8\u306b\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u305f URL \u3067\u306f NCEI Paleo \u306e top\u306b\u884c\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u3002NCEI Paleo \u306e\u3046\u3061\u306e\u3064\u304e\u306e\u3082\u306e\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3059\u308b\u3089\u3057\u3044\u3002https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25921\/ag2c-e861\n<\/ul>\n<p>(B) Indexed precipitation in the North and South American West and in South Asia and the maximum height of the Nile flood, 1200 &#8211; 1500.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Cook and others 2004c: North American summer PDSI reconstructions. IGBP # 2004-045 &#8230; NCEI Paleo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25921\/grrg-z534<\/li>\n<li>Rein and others 2004: <em>Geophysical Research Letters<\/em> <strong>31<\/strong>, L17211, 4 pp. &#8230; \u672c\u306e\u6ce8\u306b\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u305f URL \u306f\u7121\u52b9\u3060\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u89aa\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306f https:\/\/www.klimaundsedimente.geowissenschaften.uni-mainz.de\/ \u3068\u3057\u3066\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u3002\u8ad6\u6587\u306f https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2004GL020161 \u3067\u30aa\u30fc\u30d7\u30f3\u30a2\u30af\u30bb\u30b9\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u305d\u306e Supporting information \u306b\u6570\u5024\u8868\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3060\u304c\u3001\u307e\u3060\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Rad and others 1999: <em>Quaternary Research<\/em> <strong>51<\/strong> (1), 39-53 &#8230; \u8ad6\u6587\u306f https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1006\/qres.1998.2016 \u305f\u3060\u3057\u6709\u6599\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Berkelhammer and others 2010b: Dandak Cave, India Speleothem Oxygen Isotope Data. IGBP # 2010-011 &#8230; NCEI Paleo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25921\/qsde-nx94<\/li>\n<li>Zhang and others 2008: <em>Science<\/em> <strong>322<\/strong> (5903), 940-2 &#8230; \u8ad6\u6587\u306f https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.1163965 \u7121\u6599\u3060\u304c\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u767b\u9332\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3068\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u307e\u3060\u30a2\u30af\u30bb\u30b9\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002Supplementary Mateial \u306e PDF\u306f free \u3067\u3001\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u767b\u9332\u3057\u306a\u304f\u3066\u3082\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u304d\u305f\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Wang and others 2006: Dongge Cave stalagmite high-resolution Holocene d18O data. IGBP # 2006-096 &#8230; NCEI Paleo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25921\/tezr-az33<\/li>\n<li>Popper 1951, <em>The Cairo Nilometer<\/em>. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press. \u53c2\u7167\u7b87\u6240\u306f 221-3. &#8230; \u7d19\u306e\u672c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001CiNii Books \u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u65e5\u672c\u306e4\u304b\u6240\u306e\u5927\u5b66\u56f3\u66f8\u306b\u3042\u308b\u3002\u305d\u306e\u6c34\u4f4d\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u3064\u304b\u3063\u305f\u7814\u7a76\u8ad6\u6587\u306f\u305f\u304f\u3055\u3093\u3042\u308b\u304c\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3068\u3057\u3066\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u3092\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u307e\u3060\u78ba\u8a8d\u3067\u304d\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(C) Indexed precipitation of Scotland and Morocco and moisture levels in Arid Central Asia, 1200 &#8211; 1500.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Proctor and others 2002b: Northwest Scotland stalagmite data to 3600 BP. IGBP # 2002-028 &#8230; NCEI Paleo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25921\/6wh2-bh87<\/li>\n<li>Esper and others 2009: Morocco millennial Palmer Drought Severety Index reconstruction. IGBP # 2009-032 &#8230; NCEI Paleo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25921\/ss8v-hm81<\/li>\n<li>Chen and others 2012: Arid Central Asia 1000 year synthesized moisture reconstruction. IGBP # 2012-023 &#8230; https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25921\/p14d-bz83<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Figure 2.9<\/strong><br \/>\nSulphate deposits of volcanic origin in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Total Solar Irradiance from beryllium-10 and estimated sunspot numbers, AD 850-1950.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Gao and others 2009b: 1500 Year ice core &#8211; based stratospheric volcanic sulfate data. IGBP # 2009-098 &#8230; NCEI Paleo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25921\/jgay-xk32 \u3010[2025-10-28 \u88dc\u8db3] \u3053\u308c\u306f https:\/\/climate.envsci.rutgers.edu\/IVI2\/ \u306e\u307b\u3046\u304c\u3088\u3044\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3011<\/li>\n<li>Delaygue and Bard 2010b: \u4e0a\u8a18 Figure 1.1 (A) \u53c2\u7167<\/li>\n<li>Solanki and others 2005: 11000 year sunspot number reconstruction. IGBP # 2005-015 &#8230; NCEI Paleo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25921\/y6td-ne29<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Campbell \u3055\u3093\u304c\u3064\u304b\u3063\u305f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u591a\u304f\u306f\u3001\u5f53\u6642\u306e NCDC Paleo \u306b2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u5f8c\u306b\u767b\u9332\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3002Campbell \u3055\u3093\u306f\u3001\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u6b74\u53f2\u5bb6\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3081\u305a\u3089\u3057\u304f\u3001\u6700\u65b0\u306e\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u306e\u6210\u679c\u3092\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u306b\u3068\u308a\u3044\u308c\u305f\u306e\u3060\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u51fa\u7248\u304b\u30899\u5e74\u305f\u3063\u305f\u3044\u307e\u3001\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u6700\u65b0\u306e\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u4ee3\u8868\u3059\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u3048\u3089\u3076\u3068\u3061\u304c\u3046\u3082\u306e\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u305d\u308c\u3067\u8ad6\u65e8\u304c\u304b\u308f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3042\u308a\u305d\u3046\u3082\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u3042\u308a\u3048\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3082\u3044\u3048\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092 update \u3057\u305f\u304f\u3066\u3082\u3001\u9069\u5207\u306a\u51fa\u5178\u3092\u3048\u3089\u3079\u308b\u76ee\u304d\u304d\u306e\u4eba\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3068\u306f\u304b\u304e\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u5b66\u969b\u7684\u306a\u3057\u3054\u3068\u3067\u6750\u6599\u306e\u8cea\u3092\u305f\u3082\u3064\u3053\u3068\u306e\u3080\u305a\u304b\u3057\u3055\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u611f\u3058\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n===== \u56f3 1.1 \u3068 \u56f3 2.9 \u306e\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u51fa\u5178\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u30e1\u30e2 \u3053\u3053\u307e\u3067 =====<\/p>\n<p>\u6298\u308a\u304b\u3048\u3057\u306e\u3042\u3068\u306b\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306e (\u96fb\u5b50\u7248\u304b\u3089\u66f8\u304d\u306c\u3044\u305f) \u304f\u308f\u3057\u3044\u76ee\u6b21\u3092\u3064\u3051\u308b\u3002\u8457\u8005\u304c\u7bc0\u756a\u53f7\u3092\u968e\u5c64\u578b\u3067\u3064\u3051\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u305d\u308c\u3092\u8ffd\u3044\u304b\u3051\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n<!--more--><br \/>\n===== \u76ee\u6b21 \u3053\u3053\u304b\u3089 =====<br \/>\nContents<br \/>\nList of figures<br \/>\nList of tables<br \/>\nPreface and acknowledgements<br \/>\nAbbreviations<br \/>\n1. Interactions between nature and society in the late-medieval world<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.01 The Great Transition: an outline chronology<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.01.1 1260s\/70s-1330s: the Great Transition begins<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.01.2 1340s-1370s: from one socio-ecological regime to another<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 1.01.3 1370s-1470s: the long downturn<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.02 The Great Transition and the Great Divergence<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.03 Critical transitions in nature and society<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.04 Tracking the Great Transition: issues of scale, focus and evidence<br \/>\n2. Efflorescence: the enabling environment and the rise of Latin Christendom<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.01 Latin Christendom&#8217;s take-off to sustained growth<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.02 The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA)<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.02.1 The El Ni&#038;ntilde:o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.02.2 The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.02.3 Aric Central Asia (ACA)<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.02.4 Old World climates during the final extended phase of the MCA<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.02.5 The Medieval Solar Maximum<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.03 The growth of Old World populations<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.04 The institutional underpinnings of Latin Christendom&#8217;s commercial expansion<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.04.1 Revival and reform of the Latin Church<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.04.2 Secular stated and birth of the Western Legal Tradition<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.04.3 Guilds, communes and international fairs<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.05 Latin Christendom&#8217;s commercial revolution<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.05.1 Italy: the vanguard economy<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.05.2 England: a lagging economy<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 2.05.2a Creation of a commercial infrastructure<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 2.05.2b Factor markets in labour, land and capital<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 2.05.2c Silver output and money supply<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 2.05.2d Expanding agricultural output<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.05.3 Urbanization as a proxy indicator of relative economic development<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 2.05.4 Latin Christendom&#8217;s integration into an inter-linked world trading system<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.06 The enabling environment and Latin Christendom&#8217;s high-medieval efflorescence<br \/>\n3. A precarious balance: mounting economic vulnerability in an era of increasing climatic instability and re-emergent pathogens<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.01 From efflorescence to recession<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.01.1 Commercial contraction in Italy<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.01.2 Industrial crisis in Flanders<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.01.3 Agricultural stagnation in England<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.01.3a Wage rates and GDP per head<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.01.3b The bottom-heavy socio-economic structure<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.01.3c Commerce, towns and industry<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.01.3d Morcellation and the growth of structured poverty<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.01.3e The effects of the agrarian crisis of 1315-22 and its aftermath<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.02 Increasing climatic instability<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.02.1 Climate forcing and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.02.2 Evidence of increasing annual variability<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.03 Re-emergent pathogens<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.03.1 The great panzootics of sheep and cattle<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.03.1a Sheep and cattle murrains during the agrarian crisis of 1315-22<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.03.1b The Great Cattle Panzootic&#8217;s identity, origin and spread<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.03.1c The Great Cattle Panzootic in Britain and Ireland<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.03.1d The Great Cattle Panzootic of 1315-21: some conclusions<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 3.03.2 Yersinia pestis<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.03.2a Hosts and vectors of Y. pestis<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.03.2b From enzootic to pandemic: the plague cycle<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.03.2c The central Asian origin of Y. pestis<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; 3.03.2d The environmental context of plague&#8217;s spread across Asia<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.04 A precarious balance<br \/>\n &#8211; Appendix 3.1 The landed incomes of English households in 1290<br \/>\n4. Tipping point: war, climate change and plague shift the balance<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.01 Escalating warfare and deepening commercial recession<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.02 Old World climates on the cusp of change<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.02.1 The climatic anomaly of the 1340s and 1350s<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.02.2 Interactions between climate and plague<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.03 Eruption of the Black Death in Europe<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.03.1 A killer unmasked: the identity of the Black Death pathogen<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.03.2 The temporal profile of the epidemic<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.03.3 The spread of plague in Europe<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.03.4 The scale of the demographic catastrophe<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.04 The Black Death&#8217;s lasting epidemiological legacy<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.04.1 The second plague of 1360-3<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 4.04.2 Later plague outbreaks<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.05 The Black Death: an enigma resolved?<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.06 Three in one: the perfect storm<br \/>\n &#8211; Appendix 4.1 Outbreak of the Justinianic Plague and the weather<br \/>\n5. Recession: the inhibiting environment and Latin Christendom&#8217;s late-medieval demographic and econommic contraction<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.01 From a tipping point to a turning point<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.02 Advance of the Little Ice Age (LIA)<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.02.1 The reconfiguration of atmospheric circulation patterns<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.02.2 Climatic conditions during the Sp&ouml;rer Solar Minimum<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.03 A gloden age of bacteria?<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.03.1 Climate and disease<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.03.2 The downward demographic trend<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.04 Economic and commercial contraction<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.04.1 Shrinking national incomes and changes in relative factor and commodity prices<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.04.2 Land-use substitution and the reconfiguration of rural populations<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.04.3 Urban stagnation and commercial depression<br \/>\n &#8211; &#8211; 5.04.4 The negative environmental and economic conjuncture of the mid-fifteenth century<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.05 Prosperity amidst adversity?<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.06 The end of the Great Transition: from an eastward to a westward enterprise<br \/>\nEpilogue: theory, contingency, conjuncture and the Great Transition<br \/>\nReferences<br \/>\nIndex<br \/>\n===== \u76ee\u6b21 \u3053\u3053\u307e\u3067 =====<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bruce M. S. Campbell, 2016: The Great Transition: Climate, Disease and Society in the Late Medieval World (The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dokusyo-memo-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12955"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12955\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12968,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12955\/revisions\/12968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}