{"id":10831,"date":"2022-05-15T12:30:17","date_gmt":"2022-05-15T03:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=10831"},"modified":"2022-12-31T23:44:37","modified_gmt":"2022-12-31T14:44:37","slug":"r-saranavan-2022-the-climate-demon-past-present-and-future-of-climate-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=10831","title":{"rendered":"R. Saravanan (2022) The Climate Demon &#8212; Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>R[amalingam] Saravanan, 2022: <em>The Climate Demon &#8212; Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction<\/em>. Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press, 379 pp. ISBN 978-1-009-01804-3 (paperback).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2022\u5e74\u306e\u65b0\u520a\u3002\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f2022\u5e743\u670820\u65e5\u3001\u6771\u4eac\u306e\u672c\u5c4b\u306e\u6d0b\u66f8\u58f2\u308a\u5834\u3067\u898b\u3064\u3051\u3066\u8cb7\u3063\u305f\u3002A5\u5224\u306e\u30da\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30d0\u30c3\u30af\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; \u3053\u3053\u304b\u3089 2022-12-31 \u8ffd\u8a18 &#8212;<br \/>\n\u308f\u305f\u3057\u306f\u3061\u3087\u3046\u3069\u3001\u771f\u934b\u30fbBroccoli \u306e \u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u7248\u304c\u7d50\u5c40\u300e<em>\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u306f\u306a\u305c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u306e\u304b<\/em>\u300f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u984c\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u672c <a href=\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=10874\">[\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2]<\/a> \u306e\u76e3\u8a33\u3092\u305f\u306e\u307e\u308c\u305f\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3067\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306f\u305d\u306e\u672c\u3068\u304b\u3055\u306a\u308b\u8a71\u984c\u3092\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u3061\u304c\u3046\u89b3\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u306e\u3079\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3053\u308d\u304c\u304a\u304a\u304f\u3066\u304a\u3082\u3057\u308d\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30c9\u3067\u7269\u7406\u306e\u4fee\u58eb\u3092\u51fa\u305f\u3042\u3068\u3001\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u306e Princeton \u3067\u6c17\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u306e\u535a\u58eb\u3092\u3068\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u305d\u306e\u6307\u5c0e\u6559\u54e1\u306f Isaac Held \u3055\u3093\u3067\u3001Held \u3055\u3093\u306e\u535a\u58eb\u306e\u6307\u5c0e\u8005\u306f\u771f\u934b\u3055\u3093\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u7b2c1\u90e8\u306f\u3001\u6570\u5024\u5929\u6c17\u4e88\u5831\u306e\u306f\u3058\u307e\u308a\u304b\u3089\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u767a\u5c55\u3092\u305f\u3069\u308a\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u6696\u5316\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u3044\u305f\u308b\u3001\u5c02\u9580\u5206\u91ce\u306e\u767a\u5c55\u3092\u3075\u308a\u304b\u3048\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3060\u304b\u3089\u3001\u771f\u934b\u3055\u3093\u306e\u672c\u3068\u8a71\u984c\u304c\u304b\u3055\u306a\u308b\u306e\u306f\u5f53\u7136\u306a\u306e\u3060\u3002(\u6210\u5c64\u570f\u30aa\u30be\u30f3\u306e\u4ef6\u306f\u3061\u3087\u3063\u3068\u8a71\u984c\u304c\u305d\u308c\u308b\u6c17\u304c\u3059\u308b\u304c\u3001\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3068\u308a\u3042\u3052\u3089\u308c\u305f Susan Solomon \u3055\u3093\u306f\u306e\u3061\u306b IPCC\u5831\u544a\u66f8\u306e\u7de8\u8005\u306b\u3082\u306a\u3063\u305f\u304b\u3089\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3082\u3044\u3048\u308b\u3002)<\/p>\n<p>(Smagorinsky \u3055\u3093\u306b\u771f\u934b\u3055\u3093\u3092\u63a8\u85a6\u3057\u305f\u306e\u304c\u3001\u3055\u304d\u306b\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u3067\u8077\u3092\u5f97\u3066\u3044\u305f (Texas A &#038; M \u304b\u3089\u30b7\u30ab\u30b4\u5927\u5b66\u306b\u3046\u3064\u308a\u3001\u8a08\u7b97\u6a5f\u3092\u3064\u304b\u308f\u305b\u3066\u3082\u3089\u3046\u305f\u3081 GFDL (\u307e\u3060\u305d\u306e\u540d\u307e\u3048\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u304c) \u3092\u8a2a\u554f\u3057\u305f) \u7b20\u539f \u5f70\u3055\u3093\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u521d\u8033\u3060\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3001\u6ce8\u3092\u305f\u3069\u3063\u3066\u3001American Institute of Physics \u306e oral history \u4e8b\u696d\u3067\u304a\u3053\u306a\u308f\u308c\u305f\u7b20\u539f\u3055\u3093\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30bf\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u8a18\u9332 (\u304d\u304d\u3066\u306f Paul Edwards \u3055\u3093) https:\/\/www.aip.org\/history-programs\/niels-bohr-library\/oral-histories\/32440-1 \u3092\u898b\u308b\u3068\u305f\u3057\u304b\u306b\u305d\u3046\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3080\u3057\u308d\u308f\u305f\u3057\u304c\u898b\u304a\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3079\u304d\u3060\u3002\u8457\u8005\u306f NCAR \u3067 post-doc \u3092\u3084\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3089\u7b20\u539f\u3055\u3093\u304b\u3089\u76f4\u63a5\u304d\u3044\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3042\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3002)<\/p>\n<p>\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001\u3044\u307e\u306f\u3001Texas A &#038; M University \u306e\u6559\u6388\u3067 Department of Atmospheric Sciences \u306e\u5b66\u79d1\u9577\u3092\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u8aad\u66f8\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u3067\u3082\u3068\u308a\u3042\u3052\u3066\u304d\u305f Andrew Dessler \u3055\u3093\u306e\u540c\u50da (\u7d44\u7e54\u4e0a\u306f\u4e0a\u53f8) \u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001Gerald North \u3055\u3093\u306e\u3044\u308f\u3070\u5f8c\u4efb\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u984c\u540d\u306e demon \u306f\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b Laplace \u306e\u9b54\u7269 (<a href=\"https:\/\/macroscope.hatenablog.com\/entry\/20170323\/1490256212\">[\u5225\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0 2017-03-23\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b]<\/a>\u53c2\u7167)\u3060 (Laplace\u306e\u7528\u8a9e\u306f demon \u3067\u306f\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3060\u304c)\u3002\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u3001\u5927\u6c17\u3092\u3075\u304f\u3080\u6c17\u5019\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u304c Lorenz (1993) <a href=\"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/?p=10990\">[\u8aad\u66f8\u30e1\u30e2]<\/a> \u306e\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3067\u306e\u30ab\u30aa\u30b9\u306e\u6027\u8cea\u3092\u3082\u3063\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3001\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8ad6\u7684\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u9650\u754c\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u77e5\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b (\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u8868\u7d19\u306b\u8776\u306e\u7d75\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u306f\u305d\u306e\u8c61\u5fb4\u306a\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046)\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u8457\u8005\u3092\u3075\u304f\u3080\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u305f\u3061\u306f\u3001\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8ad6\u7684\u306a\u69cb\u9020\u3092\u3082\u3063\u305f\u6570\u5024\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u9053\u5177\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3064\u304b\u3044\u3001\u591a\u6570\u56de\u306e\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u672a\u6765\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u306f\u3042\u308b\u3051\u308c\u3069\u3082\u7121\u610f\u5473\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3068\u671f\u5f85\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u3001\u3068\u304f\u306b\u7b2c2\u90e8\u306f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u3069\u3046\u3044\u3046\u6d3b\u52d5\u306a\u306e\u304b\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u7b2c2\u90e8\u306e\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u8aac\u660e\u306f\u3042\u307e\u308a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u3067\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u306e\u8a71\u984c\u3092\u306f\u3058\u3081\u3066\u8aad\u3080\u4eba\u306b\u306f\u308f\u304b\u308a\u306b\u304f\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u771f\u934b\u30fbBroccoli \u306e\u672c\u3068\u3042\u308f\u305b\u3066\u8aad\u3080\u3068\u3088\u3044\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3002\u771f\u934b\u30fbBroccoli \u306f\u3001\u81ea\u5206\u305f\u3061\u306e\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u304c\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u898b\u3066\u308f\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3092\u306e\u3079\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3080\u3057\u308d\u3001\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u5c02\u9580\u5916\u306e\u4eba\u306b\u3069\u3046\u3046\u3051\u3068\u3089\u308c\u308b\u304b\u3001\u8aa4\u89e3\u3055\u308c\u306a\u3044\u305f\u3081\u306b\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u306f\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u3088\u3044\u304b\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u305d\u3053\u304c\u76f8\u88dc\u7684\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3060\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u8457\u8005\u306f\u3001\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u3092\u3082\u3064\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304b\u3089\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f\u77e5\u898b\u306f\u3069\u3093\u306a\u610f\u7fa9\u3092\u3082\u3064\u306e\u304b\u3092\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3070\u79d1\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u8853\u793e\u4f1a\u8ad6\u7684\u306b\u8003\u3048\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u8457\u8005\u306f (\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u672c\u696d\u3067\u3044\u305d\u304c\u3057\u304f\u3066\u8aad\u3080\u3072\u307e\u304c\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067) \u79d1\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u8005\u3084\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u8853\u793e\u4f1a\u8ad6\u8005\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002Rumsfeld \u56fd\u9632\u9577\u5b98 (\u5f53\u6642) \u306e\u767a\u8a00\u3067\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u305f known unknown \u3068 unknown unknown \u3068\u3044\u3046\u8868\u73fe\u3092\u3082\u3061\u3060\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u6c17\u5019\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u3044\u3061\u3070\u3093\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u306f\u4eba\u9593\u793e\u4f1a\u306e\u3075\u308b\u307e\u3044\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3082\u5236\u5fa1\u3082\u56f0\u96e3\u306a\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u304c\u3001\u672c\u66f8\u306f\u305d\u3053\u306b\u6df1\u5165\u308a\u3057\u306a\u3044 (unknown unknown \u3060\u304b\u3089)\u3002\u6c17\u5019\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u306e\u3046\u3061\u308f\u3051\u3092\u3001known unknown \u304b\u3089 known known \u306e\u3042\u3044\u3060\u306b poorly known, approximately known, well-known \u3068\u3044\u3046\u6bb5\u968e\u3067\u5206\u985e\u3057\u3066\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c3\u90e8\u306f\u3001\u672a\u6765\u306b\u3080\u3051\u3066\u3001\u3044\u308d\u3044\u308d\u306a\u8a71\u984c\u306b\u3068\u3076\u3002(\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3044\u8981\u7d04\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u81ea\u4fe1\u304c\u306a\u3044\u304c) \u8a08\u7b97\u6a5f\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u306f\u4eca\u5f8c\u3082\u9032\u6b69\u3059\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304c\u8cbb\u7528\u3068\u6d88\u8cbb\u30a8\u30cd\u30eb\u30ae\u30fc\u306e\u5236\u7d04\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u6a5f\u68b0\u5b66\u7fd2\u306f\u3069\u3046\u3064\u304b\u3048\u308b\u304b\u3088\u304f\u308f\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u3055\u307e\u3056\u307e\u306a\u767a\u60f3\u3092\u6574\u7406\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b\u304d\u3063\u304b\u3051\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002Geoengineering \u306e\u3046\u3061\u4e8c\u9178\u5316\u70ad\u7d20\u8caf\u7559\u306f\u8cbb\u7528\u304c\u9ad8\u304f\u3001\u592a\u967d\u653e\u5c04\u53cd\u5c04\u5f37\u5316\u306f\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\u304c\u5fc3\u914d\u3060 (\u305d\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5f79\u7acb\u3064\u5834\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308b\u304c)\u3002\u4e0d\u78ba\u304b\u3055\u3092\u306a\u304f\u3059\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u4eba\u306e\u6c7a\u65ad\u306f\u4e00\u7a2e\u306e\u8ced\u3051\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3082\u306e\u306b\u306a\u3089\u3056\u308b\u3092\u3048\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6298\u308a\u304b\u3048\u3057\u306e\u3042\u3068\u306b \u304f\u308f\u3057\u3044\u76ee\u6b21\u3092\u3064\u3051\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n<!--more--><br \/>\n== \u76ee\u6b21 ==<br \/>\nContents<br \/>\nList of Figures<br \/>\nPreface<br \/>\nAcknowledgments<br \/>\nIntroduction<br \/>\n &#8211; Purpose of the Book<br \/>\n &#8211; Structure of the Book<br \/>\n<strong>Part 1. The Past<\/strong><br \/>\n1. Deducing Weather: The Dawn of Computing<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.1 From Sunspot Cycles to Compute Cycles<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.2 Philosophy Break: Inductivism versus Deductivism<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.3 The Weatherperson and the Computer<br \/>\n &#8211; 1.4 The Dark Side of Weather Prediction<br \/>\n2. Predicting Weather: The Butterfly and the Tornado<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.1 Philosophy Break: Laplace&#8217;s Demon, Determinism, and Paradigm Shifts<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.2 Atmospheric Data: Sharing Selfies on the WWW<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.3 The Assimilation of Data<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.4 The Butterfly Effect<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.5 An Ensemble of Demons<br \/>\n &#8211; 2.6 The Infinite Forecast<br \/>\n3. The Greenhouse Effect: Goldilocks and the Three Planets<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.1 Lessons from a Hot Summer Day: Radiation, Albedo, and Convection<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.2 Lessons from a Cold Winter Night: Greenhouse Effect and Climate Sensitivity<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.3 Eunice Foote and the Three Glass Tube Experiments<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.4 Arrhenius and the First Climate Model<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.5 Climate Feedbacks and Forcings<br \/>\n &#8211; 3.6 Too Hot, Too Cold, and Just Right<br \/>\n4. Deducing Climate: Smagorinsky&#8217;s Laboratory<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.1 General Circulation of the Atmosphere<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.2 From Tokyo with Meteorology<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.3 Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.4 Philosophy Break: Reductionism and Emergentism<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.5 Models of Simplicity in the Garden of Complexity<br \/>\n &#8211; 4.6 Flywheel of Climate: The Circulating Ocean<br \/>\n5. Predicting Climate: Butterflies in the Greenhouse<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.1 Nature versus Nurture: Initial and Boundary Conditions<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.2 Far from the Madding Crowd: The Keeling Curve<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.3 It Takes Two to Tango: Carbon Dioxide and Temperature<br \/>\n &#8211; 5.4 Academia Warns to Global Warming<br \/>\n6. The Ozone Hole: Black Swan at the Polar Dawn<br \/>\n &#8211; 6.1 The Ozone Layer: Earth&#8217;s Sunscreen<br \/>\n &#8211; 6.2 The Road to Ozone Depletion1<br \/>\n &#8211; 6.3 Cloudy Skies in the Polar Night<br \/>\n &#8211; 6.4 Patching the Hole: Ozone Recovery and Climate Change<br \/>\n7. Global Warming: From Gown to Town<br \/>\n &#8211; 7.1 Assessing Climate Change<br \/>\n &#8211; 7.2 Howcatchem: The Attribution of Recent Climate Change<br \/>\n &#8211; 7.3 Extreme Weather Attribution: The Butterfly Did It?<br \/>\n &#8211; 7.4 The Minuscule but Mighty Aerosol<br \/>\n &#8211; 7.5 Internal Variability: Much Ado about a Hiatus<br \/>\n &#8211; 7.6 Storylines, Scenarios, and Projections<br \/>\n &#8211; 7.7 Warming Globally, Impacting Locally<br \/>\n<strong>Part 2. The Present<\/strong><br \/>\n8. Occam&#8217;s Razor: The Reduction to Simplicity<br \/>\n &#8211; 8.1 Philosophy Break: The Principle of Parsimony<br \/>\n &#8211; 8.2 Predicting versus Understanding: Complexity versus Simplicity<br \/>\n &#8211; 8.3 Biology Analogy: The Fruit Fly Model of Climate<br \/>\n &#8211; 8.4 Spherical Cows and Tipping Points<br \/>\n9. Contrasting Climate: A Conservative View of Modeling<br \/>\n &#8211; 9.1 Conservation of Mass and Energy<br \/>\n &#8211; 9.2 Flux Adjustment and Non-Conservation<br \/>\n &#8211; 9.3 Community Climate Modeling<br \/>\n &#8211; 9.4 Earth System Models: Carbon Cycle and More<br \/>\n &#8211; 9.5 Better Models, More Uncertainty?<br \/>\n &#8211; 9.6 Predictive, Constraining, and Explanatory Power<br \/>\n10. Tuning Climate: A Comedy of Compensating Errors<br \/>\n &#8211; 10.1 Model Tuning: Orchestra or Whack-a-Mole?<br \/>\n &#8211; 10.2 Correctness, Confirmability, and Usefulness of Models<br \/>\n11. Occam&#8217;s Beard: The Emergence of Complexity<br \/>\n &#8211; 11.1 The Anna Karenina Principle<br \/>\n &#8211; 11.2 An Ensemble of Climate Demons<br \/>\n &#8211; 11.3 Hard Mentality and Model Diversity<br \/>\n &#8211; 11.4 Catch-22: Reproducibility and Replicability<br \/>\n12. The Hansen Paradox: The Red Queen&#8217;s Race of Climate Modeling<br \/>\n &#8211; 12.1 Falsifiability of Climate Models<br \/>\n &#8211; 12.2 Harder than Rocket Science: Numerical Convergence and Climate Modeling<br \/>\n &#8211; 12.3 Carroll, Borges, and the Reducibility Limit<br \/>\n13. The Rumsfeld Matrix: Degrees of Knowledge<br \/>\n &#8211; 13.1 The Arc of Model Improvement<br \/>\n &#8211; 13.2 Benefits of Parameterizations: Downstream versus Upstream<br \/>\n &#8211; 13.3 Contrarians at the Gate<br \/>\n &#8211; 13.4 Unknown Knowns: The Threat of Willful Ignorance<br \/>\n &#8211; 13.5 Means, Motive, and Opportunity &#8212; Or the Lack Thereof<br \/>\n &#8211; 13.6 Contrarianism and Unconstrained Ideation<br \/>\n &#8211; 13.7 Howaboutism: Getting down in the Trenches<br \/>\n14. Lost in Translation<br \/>\n &#8211; 14.1 What Is a Model?<br \/>\n &#8211; 14.2 What Is Data?<br \/>\n &#8211; 14.3 Models versus Data: The Problem of Induction<br \/>\n &#8211; 14.4 What is &#8220;Business as Usual&#8221;?<br \/>\n &#8211; 14.5 What Is Prediction?<br \/>\n15. Taking Climate Models Seriously, Not Literally<br \/>\n &#8211; 15.1 Deep Uncertainty: When Error Bars have Error Bars<br \/>\n &#8211; 15.2 Precision versus Accuracy: Degrees of Warming<br \/>\n &#8211; 15.3 Pitfalls of the Uncertainty Trough<br \/>\n &#8211; 15.4 &#8220;OK Doomer&#8221;: The Power of Numeric Prophecies<br \/>\n<strong>Part 3. The Future<\/strong><br \/>\n16. Moore&#8217;s Law: To Exascale and Beyond<br \/>\n &#8211; 16.1 Making Chips That Don&#8217;t Fry<br \/>\n &#8211; 16.2 A Brief History of Supercomputing<br \/>\n &#8211; 16.3 Chip Wars: March of the GPUs<br \/>\n &#8211; 16.4 Topping the Computing Charts<br \/>\n &#8211; 16.5 Care and Feeding of the Growing Climate Demon: Economics and Energetics<br \/>\n17. Machine Learning: The Climate Imitation Game<br \/>\n &#8211; 17.1 Can Machines Learn?<br \/>\n &#8211; 17.2 Model Wars: Inductivism Strikes Back<br \/>\n &#8211; 17.3 Mapping the Landscape of Models<br \/>\n18. Geoengineering: Reducing the Fever<br \/>\n &#8211; 18.1 How to Train the Climate Demon<br \/>\n &#8211; 18.2 Sulfates in the Sky<br \/>\n19. Pascal&#8217;s Wager: Hedging Our Climate Bets<br \/>\n &#8211; 19.1 An Actuarial Approach to Long-Term Climate Change Risk<br \/>\n &#8211; 19.2 Blowin&#8217; in the Wind: Reasoning through the Fog of Numbers<br \/>\n &#8211; 19.3 Planning for the Future: Spanning the Uncertainties<br \/>\n &#8211; 19.4 Assessing Climate Risk: The Difficulties with Probabilities<br \/>\n20. Moonwalking into the Future<br \/>\n &#8211; 20.1 The Paris Potluck<br \/>\nEpilogue<br \/>\nGlossary<br \/>\nNotes<br \/>\nSelect Bibliography<br \/>\nReferences<br \/>\nIndex<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>R[amalingam] Saravanan, 2022: The Climate Demon &#8212; Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction. Cambr [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dokusyo-memo-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10831","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10831"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10831\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11026,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10831\/revisions\/11026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/macroscope.world.coocan.jp\/yukukawa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}