Sekai (Iwanami Syoten) 2007 nen 9 gatu goo 133 - 141 peezi.
MASUDA Kooiti [Tyosya syookai]
[[Roomazi no tuzurikata ni tuite: Kono bunsyoo no Roomazi no tuzurikata wa Kunrei-siki ni yotte imasu ga, nobasu oto wa boin-zi o kurikaesu katati de arawasite imasu. Sita-sen ("_") wa tugi no baai ni tukaimasita. Tatoeba "t_i" wa Nihongo no "ti" to tigatte "t" no oto to "i" no oto o betubetu ni kangaeta ue de tunaide hatuon site hosii koto o simesimasu. Kutooten to site, Nihongo no "nakaguro" ni ataru tokoro ni, "+" o tukau koto ga arimasu. Gaikokugo no tuzuri wa, Eigo naraba "en:" no yoo ni ISO no 2-mozi no gengo koodo (en:code) o mae ni oite simesimasu. Nihongo ni tori-komareta to mitomerareru Eigo no kasiramozi ryakugo ni wa "en:" o tukemasen.]]
Ningen ga kaseki nenryoo o moyasu koto de dasite iru nisankatanso ga omona gen'in to natte, 21 seiki no aida ni, zenkyuu heikin tizyoo kion no zyoosyoo o hukumu kikoo henka ga okoru to iu mitoosi o, "zin'i kigen ondanka", ryakusite tan ni "ondanka" to yobu koto ni suru. Kore wa ima de wa kikoo henka o kenkyuu site iru kagakusya no ooku no kyootuu kenkai ni natte ori, koko de wa bengizyoo "honryuu no kenkai" to yobu koto ni suru. Kotosi [2007 nen], Kikoo Hendoo ni kansuru Seihu-kan Paneru (IPCC) no dai-4-zi hookokusyo[Tyuu] ga matomerareta. Sizen-kagaku-teki kiso o atukau dai-1 sagyoo bukai no hookokusyo o miru to, honryuu no kenkai wa masumasu tasika ni natta koto ga wakaru. Tadasi, kono kenkai wa komakai tokoro made tooitu sareta mono de wa naku, zenkyuu heikin tizyoo kion no zyoosyoo no mitoosi de sae haba o motte ori, tiiki goto no ondo henka ya kansitu no henka ni kansuru mitoosi ni wa kanari no hutasikasa ga aru.
Tokoroga, hon'ya no tentoo de mikakeru tikyuu ondanka ni kansuru hon ni wa, honryuu no kenkai o syookai site iru mono mo aru ga, musiro, ippoo de "ondanka wa okoranai" to iu syutyoo (koko de wa "ondanka hiteiron to yobu" ya "ondanka yosoku no konkyo to natte iru kagaku wa sinrai dekizu, kikoo ga doo naru ka wa dare mo wakaranai" to iu syutyoo (ondanka kaigiron to yobu), tahoo de "ondanka wa seitaikei ya zinrui no hametu o motarasu" to iu syutyoo (ondanka kyooiron to yobu) no ryoohoo ga medatte iru yoo ni kanziru. Tadasi, koko de onazi guruupu ni bunrui sareta ronsya no aida de mo kenkai wa onazi de wa naku, soogo ni muzyun suru koto sae aru.
Kono bunsyoo o kaita dooki wa, kikoo henka no kagaku no honryuu no tatiba o rikai site itadakitai to iu kimoti de aru. Sikasi, kanarazusimo honryuu no tatiba no kyootuu kenkai o noberu no de wa naku, kozin no tatiba de, ondanka mondai no igi to sore ni kakawaru kagaku no yakuwari ni tuite no kangae o nobetai. [atama]
Ningen no syakai wa, kankyoo ni kanzen ni kitei sarete iru wake de wa nai ga, kankyoo no seiyaku o ukete iru koto wa tasika de aru. Mata, ningen katudoo wa kankyoo ni eikyoo o ataete iru. Kankyoo ga, ningen katudoo ni yotte kaihen sareta kekka, ningen no seizon ni totte masumasu kibisii mono ni naru koto ga aru. "Kankyoo mondai" to wa koo iu mondai nanoda to omou. Tiikiteki na zirei naraba, kodai kara, noogyoo+bokutiku ya tosi no nenryoo kakuho no tameni sinrin o hakai sita kekka, hito ga sumu no ni tekisanaku natte simatta tokoro wa atikoti ni aru. Gendai de wa, mondai ga zen-tikyuu kibo ni hirogari, ningen ni totte nigeba ga naku natta. Dakara "tikyuu" (en:global) kankyoo mondai na no de aru. (Nao, sinrin no rei de wakaru yoo ni, kankyoo to tennen sigen wa meikaku ni wakerarenai node, koko de wa tennen sigen kokatu no mondai mo hukumete kangaeru.)
Ningen ga kaseki nenryoo o moyasu koto ni yotte taiki-tyuu no nisankatanso ga hue, kikoo ga ondanka suru, to iu inga rensa wa, matigai naku zen-tikyuu kibo de toraenakereba naranai gensyoo nanode, tikyuu kankyoo mondai no reidai ni husawasii. Tadasi, sore ga komatta koto ka doo ka wa tasyoo kangaeru hituyoo ga aru. Yaku 100 nen go ni okoru kanoosei ga takai to omowareru, sangyoo kakumei mae ni kurabete sessi yaku 2 do kara 5 do takai zenkyuu heikin tizyoo kion wa, saikin 80 man nen no aida ni wa nakatta yoo de aru ga, saikin 1 oku nen made sakanoboreba mezurasii atai de wa nai. 100 nen de sessi 3 do to itta ondo zyoosyoo no hayasa wa tune no mono de wa nai ga, 10 man nen mae kara 1 man nen mae made no hyooki no aida ni wa nankai ka atta ka mo sirenai (kako no zenkyuu heikin kion no suitei no hutasikasa ga ookii node dangen wa dekinai ga). Zinrui ni totte wa, mosi hyooki no koro no yoo ni sekai no zinkoo ga seizei hyakuman nin no keta de areba, izyuu o semarareru igai ni wa komatta koto de wa nakatta ka mo sirenai. Sikasi ima, sekai no hotondo no rikuti wa kokkyoosen de bunkatu sare, seisan katudoo ni tukaesoo na hotondo no toti ni wa syoyuuken ga settei sarete ori, sikasi sekai kibo de no zinkoo sai-haiti o keikau si zikkoo dekiru yoo na kenryoku wa sonzai sinai. Kono zyookyoo de wa, kari ni tikyuu zentai no syokuryoo seisan nooryoku ga heranai de sumu to site mo, sono tiikiteki bunpu ga kawaru no wa komatta koto de aru.
Ondanka ga tikyuu no seitaikei ya seibutu tayoosei ni taisuru kiki de aru to iu siteki ga aru. Sangosyoo ya koozan no syokusei o hazime, sekai no ooku no tokoro de seitaikei ga kiki ni ari, sono yooin to site ningen katudoo no eikyoo ga ookii koto wa tasika daroo. Tadasi, ningen katudoo no seitaikei e no inpakuto (en:impact) to site wa, ondanka to iu yooin mo musi dekinai ga, nooti kaitaku ya tosi-ka nado no toti riyoo kaihen ni tomonau mono no hoo ga ookii hazu da. Ondanka dake naraba, subete de wa nai ga ooku no seibutu ga arata ni tekisita kikoo ni natta tokoro ni idoo suru koto ni yotte tekioo suru koto ga dekiru daroo. Sikasi genzitu niwa, nooti ya bokuzyoo, dooro ya damu no yoo na koozoobutu ni yotte idoo ga samatagerareru. Toti riyoo kaihen de seisoku-iki ga sebamerareta seibutu ga kikoo henka ni sarasareru to iu soozyoo kooka ga aru kara zyuudai na mondai nanoda to omou.
Moo hitotu gendai no ningen syakai no ookina mondai wa, koosin hukanoo na tennen sigen toku ni enerugii (de:Energie) sigen o tairyoo ni syoohi site iru koto de aru. Kore wa akiraka ni zizoku kanoo de wa nai. Sikasi, gendai no keizai no sikumi wa 18 seiki koohan igo tune ni kaseki nenryoo ga riyoo dekiru koto o zentei to site hattatu site kita mono nanode, syakai o zizoku kanoo na mono ni kumi-kaete iku no wa tayasui koto de wa nai. Ondanka mondai ga nakereba, ato 100 nen kurai wa sekitan ni tayori nagara yukkuri to tugi no tenkan o kangaeru to iu seisaku ga sentaku sareta ni tigai nai. Sikasi, ondanka ga komatta koto da to suru to, kaseki nenryoo kara no dakkyaku o isoganakereba naranai koto ni naru.
Ondanka mondai wa kono yoo ni, ippoo de wa toti riyoo kaihen ni yoru seitaikei e no inpakuto, tahoo de wa kaseki nenryoo izon no mondai to karami atte iru. Ningen syakai ga kongo zizoku site iku tame ni wa, kono izure no kyokumen de mo kiki ga syoozinai yoo na seisaku o toru hituyoo ga aru. Ningen no kankyoo e no inpakuto wa sude ni sizen no tyoosetu nooryoku no han'i o koete simatte iru node, kore o tiisaku suru yoo ni syakai o kaete iku hituyoo ga aru no da to omou. Nao, inpakuto ga syoozite iru basyo wa iwayuru tozyookoku de aru koto ga ooi ga, sore o okusu dooki wa keizaiteki ni yutaka na kuni ni honkyo o oku keizai syutai ni aru koto ga ooi. Mazu zikoku no sangyoo seisaku o zinrui no zizokusei o sokonawanai mono ni suru koto ga, yutaka na kuni no sekinin daroo.
Kono imi de sankoo ni naru no wa WACKERNAGEL [wakenageru] to REES [riisu] no "ekorozikaru huttopurinto" (en:ecological footprint) to iu gainen de aru. Karera wa ningen katudoo no kankyoo e no inpakuto o menseki to iu zigen ni soroete syuukei si, sude ni sono gookei wa seisan katudoo ni tukaeru rikuti no hyoomenseki o koete iru koto o simesita. Kono yoo na teiryooteki sihyoo wa, samazama na situ no inpakuto o onazi dohyoo ni noseru igi ga aru ga, tanzyunka ni tomonau ketten mo aru. Toku ni, enerugii sigen syoohi no inpakuto o hyooka suru sai ni, karera wa haisyutu sareta nisankatanso o kyuusyuu suru no ni hituyoo na menseki no mitumori o saiyoo site iru ga, motiron zissai no inpakuto wa ondanka dake de wa nai.
Hito ga ondanka o husegu beki da to kangaeru toki, sono konkyo wa itiyoo de wa nai ga, syoorai no sedai ni meiwaku o kakeru beki de nai to iu rinriteki handan ga hukumarete iru daroo. Tokoroga, ondanka boosi saku to site teian sarete iru mono no ikutuka wa, kono onazi rinriteki handan kara mite susumerarenai mono de aru. Hitotu wa gensiryoku riyoo no kakudai de aru. Nisankatanso no haisyutu wa, nenryoo no seisan ya setubi no kensetu ya haibutu no atukai made no zentai o kangaete mo kaseki nenryoo no baai yori mo sukunai no ka mo sirenai. Sikasi, hoosyasei haibutu no syobun hoohoo wa kakuritu site inai. Osoraku tisoo syobun sika nai daroo ga, syoorai no rookaru (en:local) na tikaku hendoo no yosoku wa konnan de aru. Huuin sezu, syoorai ni watatte kanri o tuzukeru sika nai daroo. Kore wa, syoorai sedai ni hutan o siiru saku de aru. Moo hitotu wa, nisankatanso no kakuri tyoryuu de aru. Bussitu to site no anzensei no men de wa hoosyasei haibutu yori haruka ni masi da ga, tahoo, ryoo ga hizyoo ni ooi. Oyoso 1000 nen izyoo ni watatte kakuri ga tuzuku hituyoo ga aru no da ga, Nihon no yoo na tikaku hendoo-tai de wa kakuzitu na kakuri wa dekinai to omou. Mosi dekite mo, sono basyo wa syoorai no toti riyoo ga seiyaku sareru koto ni naru daroo.
Sitagatte, kongo ningen syakai no tayoreru enerugii sigen wa, koosin kanoo na, iwayuru sizen enerugii ni kagirareru. Tinetu to tyooseki o reigai to site, taiyoo-koo, huuryoku, suiryoku, baiomasu (en:biomass) nenryoo nado, izuremo taiyoo kara kite utyuu kuukan ni dete iku enerugii no nagare no riyoo de aru. Tadasi daikibo damu to nenryoo sakumotu no daikibo saibai wa seitaikei e no inpakuto ga ookii node sakeru beki de aru. Kore made kaseki nenryoo ya gensiryoku o zentei ni, enerugii o tairyoo ni ikkatu site kakoo si hiroku bunpai suru sikumi ga tukurarete kita ga, kongo wa, kuukan atari no mitudo ga tiisaku mata zikanteki hendoo no ookii enerugii sigen o katuyoo dekiru yoo ni, seisan to syoohi no katati o kaete iku hituyoo ga aru.[atama]
Ontanka ni kansuru ryoo kyokutan no syutyoo ga urete iru no wa, dokusya no sinzyoo ni hibiku kara ka mo sirenai. Kanari ooku no hito ga, sangyoo kakumei irai no sangyoo to seikatu no yoosiki ga zizoku kanoo de nai koto, ondanka ga sono tenkan o semaru dooki no hitotu de aru koto o kanzite iru no de wa nai daroo ka. Ippoo ni, sore o konoyo no owari no yoo ni kanzite, aruiwa hikanteki ni nari, aruiwa gihun ni karareru hito ga iru koto mo, tahoo ni, muisiki no uti ni ondanka mondai no sonzai o mitomenai hookoo ni sikoo ga mukau hito ga iru koto mo, sinzyoo to site wa muri mo nai.
Seisaku o zibun no rigai ni au hookoo ni susumetai hitotati ga kikoo henka no mitoosi ni kansite mo zibun no tugoo no yoi mono o erande tukatte iru koto mo musi dekinai daroo. Enerugii sigen ni kansuru seisaku wa sangyoo zentai e no eikyoo ga ookii. Toku ni Amerika Gassyuukoku ni wa, sekiyu+sekitan sihon ga suponsaa (en:sponsor) ni natte, samazama na ondanka hitei ronsya ya kaigi ronsya no syutyoo o panhuretto (en:pamphlet) ya webusaito (en:web site) de senden site iru dantai ga ikutu mo aru. Mokuteki wa nisankatanso haisyutu o kisei suru yoo na seisaku o samatageru koto to suisoku sareru. Honryuu no kagakusya kara miru to sude ni kagakuteki hihan ni taenaku natte iru kenkai o nobete iru mono ga ooi ga, tyosyatati no ooku wa zibun no kenkai wa tadasii to omotte syutyoo site iru rasii. Soo iu senden dantai wa simin ni kagaku o kaisetu suru kooeki dantai no kao o site iru node, koohei na tumori no tyosya ga sin'yoo site ukeuri site simau koto mo ooi yoo da. Tahoo, gensiryoku riyoo o kakudai sitai hitobito wa ondanka o kyootyoo suru koto ga ooku, toki ni ondanka kyooiron o riyoo suru koto ga aru.
Ondanka kyooiron no uti ni wa, ningen no seitaikei e no inpakuto no ziturei o yoku sirabe, sono sinkoku-sa o uttaeru mono ga ooi. Sore wa keikoku to site wa kityoo nanoda ga, kiki no subete o ondaka no sei ni site simau to, taisaku-ron mo ondanka boosi ni katayori, gensiryoku riyoo nado no zizoku kanoo de nai hookoo ni mukatte simau osore ga aru. Seitaikei no kiki o kataru sai ni wa, ontanka to ta no yooin ga dono yoo ni karande iru no ka o hukumete ronzite itadakitai to omou.[atama]
Kagakuteki tisiki wa, zettaiteki sinri de aru koto wa hotondo nai. Kagakuteki tisiki no tadasisa wa zanteiteki na mono de aru. Tadasi, kagaku ni wa tisiki o kairyoo suru sikumi ga aru. Sono kihon wa dooryoo ni yoru hyooka (en:peer review) de ari, ronbun syuppan mae no sadoku to, syuppan go, betu no ronbun nado no katati de no kookai no hihyoo to o hukumu. Kore ga naritatu tame ni, kagakusya wa ippoo de senmon-bunka-nai de kyootuu no gainen taikei o manabu koto, tahoo de sisyoo o hukumu dooryoo no sigoto o hihan dekiru koto ga hituyoo de aru. Kagaku wa dentoo to kakusin to no kintyoo kankei de naritatte iru no da.
Tikyuu kankyoo ni kansuru kagaku wa, seigyo sareta zyooken de zitubutu o tukatta zikken ga dekinai node, zikken ga dekiru senmon bunka ni kurabete hutasikasa ga ookii. Sikasi, kono ato noberu yoo ni, riron no sanbutu de aru suuti moderu (en:model) ni yotte, kono ketten wa aru teido kokuhuku sarete iru.
Sore ni site mo, miti no purosesu (en:process) o hukunde iru hukuzatu na sisutemu (en:system) ni kansuru yosoku ga dekiru ka doo ka wa utagawasii. Toku ni ondanka no bunmyaku de wa, kikoo o yosoku siyoo to sureba, nisankatanso haisyutu-ryoo mo yosoku sinakereba naranai. Ningen ni hontoo ni ziyuu isi ga aru ka doo ka wa tetugakuteki nanmon da ga, syakai o hukumu sisutemu no syoorai yosoku wa kagaku no te ni wa oenai kadai da to ieyoo.
Sikasi, kagaku ga hutasikasa o hukunde ori, mata tadasii imi de no yosoku ga dekinai kara to itte, kagakuteki tisiki o motte mo nani mo siranai no to dootoo da to iu koto ni wa naranai. Kagaku wa, kako ni okotta koto no setumei o teikyoo dekiru koto ga aru si, syoorai ni tuite mo, ikutuka no zentei no moto de wa donna koto ga okisoo de aru ka o noberu koto ga dekiru. (Ato de noberu "purozyekusyon" (en:projection) wa kore de aru.)
Hutasika na kagakuteki tisiki wa seisaku no konkyo to site yowai to iu rikutu wa mottomo de wa aru ga, hutasikasa o kanzen ni nakusu koto ga dekinai izyoo, kono rikutu o genri-syugi-teki ni syutyoo suru koto wa, seisaku kettei o kagirinaku okuraseru koto ni naru. Syakai wa, mondai no sinkokusa to hutasikasa no ryoohoo o kooryo ni irete, tikuzi, seisaku o kimete iku hituyoo ga aru.[atama]
Ondanka kaigiron no uti ni wa, "Kikoo no kagaku wa seizi ni yotte yugamerarete ori, sinrai dekinai" to syutyoo suru mono ga aru.
Tasika ni, IPCC wa seihu-kan kikan de aru si, Nippon o hukumeta kak-koku de, IPCC hookokusyo ni han'ei sareru koto o mezasita kenkyuu ga kokka purozyekuto (en:project) to site okonawarete iru. Kagakusya ga zihatuteki ni sinri o tankyuu suru to iu akademikku (en:academic) kagaku no rinen-kei to wa tigatte iru. Seisaku no tame no kagaku wa, akademikku kagaku to tigatta kati kizyun o motta "kisei kagaku (en:regulatory science)" to yobareru yoo na mono da to iu kangae mo aru.
Genzitu ni wa, akademikku kagaku to kisei kagaku no ryoo ruikei no aida ni iroiro na zissen ga aru. Sosite IPCC no kati kizyun wa akademikku kagaku ni tikai. Hitotu ni wa, IPCC ni wa tyokusetu seizi ni kan'yo suru kengen ga ataerarezu, kagakuteki tiken no hyooka hookoku o suru dake dakara de aru. Mata, IPCC wa, rebyuu (en:review) no taisyoo o gensoku to site sadoku o heta gakuzyutu ronbun to si, sara ni hookokusyo genkoo ni tuite hoka no senmonka no sadoku o ukeru koto ni site iru. Tumari, tisiki no hinsitu kanri no sikumi to site akademikku kagaku no dooryoo hyooka o saiyoo site iru. Tadasi, kokka purozyekuto de wa, kenkyuu teema (de:Thema) ga toppu-daun (en:top down) de ari, mata kotae o dasu kigen ga settei sarete iru ten wa, zyuurai no akademikku kagaku to tigau. Kenkyuusya no sikoo ya keturon ga suponsaa no nozomu hookoo ni yuudoo sarenai ka to iu sinpai wa seitoo na mono da ga, Nippon no IPCC dai-1 sagyoo bukai e no kooken o miru kagiri de wa, sono yoo na heigai wa arawarete inai to omou.
Akademikku kagaku ni wa, senmon-bunka-nai no soogo hihan wa aru mono no, bunka-kan de kotoba ga tuuzinaku narigati da to iu ketten ga aru. Sikasi, kikoo henka no kenkyuu de wa, kikoo moderu kaihatu dake demo hukusuu no bunka no hito ga kyoodoo de kakawaru hituyoo ga aru si, kikoo eikyoo hyooka de wa, sara ni ooku no bunka no hito no aida de zyoohoo no imi o rikai si au hituyoo ga aru. Senmon bunka no heigai o manukarete iru wake de wa nai ga, sore o sakeru doryoku ga sekkyokuteki ni okonawarete iru bun'ya nanode aru.[atama]
Taiki-tyuu no nisankatanso ga sekigaisen o kyuusyuu+syasyutu suru koto wa 19 seiki nakaba ni TYNDALL [t_indaru] no situnai zikken ni yotte simesare, 1950 nendai ni ryoosi kagaku [bake-gaku] ni motozuku riron ya seimitu na situnai zikken ni yotte ima kara mite mo hobo tadasii teiryooteki hyooka ga erareta. Sore ga taiki+tihyoomen no enerugii syuusi ni dono yoo na eikyoo o ataeru ka ni kansite mo, sude ni 1970 nendai ni, senmonka no aida de wa daitai kyootuu rikai ga erarete ita.
Yoku tukawareru sihyoo wa, nisankatanso noodo ga aru atai (tatoeba 300 ppm) de zutto tuzuita sekai to sono 2 bai no atai de zutto tuzuita sekai ga aru to katei sita baai no ryoo sekai no kion no sa de, "nisankatanso baizoo ni taisuru teizyoo ootoo" to yobareru. 1979 nen no Amerika Kagaku Akademii hookokusyo de teizyoo ootoo wa sessi 1.5 do kara 4.5 do no aida to mitumorareta. Kono atai wa, tamatama de aru ga, ima mo syuusei no hituyoo ga nai. Haba ga dekiru omo na riyuu wa nisankatanso zitai no kooka no hutasikasa de wa naku, kion no henka ni tomonatte suizyooki to kumo ga dono yoo ni hurumau ka ni tuite no hutasikasa de aru. Ima de mo mada ko-ko no kumo o hyoogen sita zenkyuu 3-zigen no kikoo simyureesyon (en:simulation) wa dekinai (keisanki no nooryoku ga oyobanai) sei mo atte hutasikasa wa nokotte iru ga, kongo kenkyuu ga susunde mo teizyoo ootoo no atai ga ketatigai ni ookiku nattari tiisaku nattari wa sinai daroo.
Genzitu ni wa, nisankatanso wa zyozyo ni huete iku node, teizyoo ootoo to wa zyookyoo ga tigau. Taiki wa umi to enerugii o yaritori site iru. Umi wa taiki yorimo situryoo ga ketatigai ni ookii node, umi ga atatamaru no wa taiki yorimo zikan ga kakaru. 1980 nendai no kenkyuu ni yotte, kion no henka wa, umi no uti kaze ni yoru kakimaze ga oyobu hyoosoo (hukasa suuhyaku meetoru (fr:mètre) made) no suion no henka to issyo ni okoru node, nisankatanso noodo ni kurabete suuzyuunen okurete sinkoo suru koto ga wakatta. Nao, umi no sinsoo wa motto yukkuri to, yaku 1000 nen kakatte atatamaru hazu de aru.
1980 nendai no ziten dewa, taiki+umi+riku no aida no tanso zyunkan wa nazo darake datta ga, kaseki nenryoo nensyoo ryoo to taiki-tyuu no nisankatanso no zooka ryoo wa yoku wakatte ita kara, sono hiritu ga tuzuku to katei sureba, dono teido no ondanka o motarasu ka wa sudeni keisan dekita.
Tadasi, kikoo o henka saseru yooin ni wa, eerozoru (de:Aerosol; taiki-tyuu ni tadayou kotai+ekitai no biryuusi) no kooka mo aru. Sono uti ni wa, sekitan ya sekiyu no nensyoo de dekiru ni-sanka-ioo ga taiki-tyuu de sanka site dekita ryuusan ekiteki ga aru. Kore wa taiyoo-koo o hansya site tizyoo kion o sageru yoo ni hataraku. 1970 nendai ni wa, kore ga nisankatanso to dootoo izyoo ni hataraki kikoo o kanreika saseru to iu kangae mo atta. Sono go kenkyuu ga susumi, nisankatanso no kooka ni kurabete musi wa dekinai ga sootaiteki ni tiisai koto ga wakatte kita.
Koosite 1980 nendai ni wa, ningen katudoo wa kikoo o ondanka saseru no de wa nai ka to kangaeru kagakusya ga hueta. Seitaikei oyobi noogyoo e no eikyoo o mitumotte miru to, henka-ryoo ga aru teido izyoo ookiku naru to yuugai na eikyoo no hoo ga omo ni naru to omowareru. Sokode, ondanka e no tekioo to ondanka o husegu doryoku no ryoohoo ga hituyoo to kangaerareta. Sono giron wa Kokuren o ugokasi, 1988 nen ni IPCC ga hossoku suru koto ni natta.
Koko made no giron wa, mirai ni kansuru rironteki mitoosi to site kumitaterarete kita. Sikasi sore dake de wa seizi o ugokasu ni wa yowai. Koo ka hukoo ka, 1990 nendai ni hairu to, (toozi no) saikin 10 nen no kion ga sore izen ni kurabete takaku natte iru koto o sisa suru zyoohoo ga huete kita. Sokode "20 seiki no aida ni tasika ni kion ga zyoosyoo site iru ka?" "Sono omo na gen'in wa nisankatanso de aru to ieru ka?" to iu kadai ga settei sareta. Kotira naraba, rironka dake de naku kansokuka mo sanka dekiru si, ippan no hitobito ni mo mizika ni kanzirareru mondai de aru. Kenkyuu ga susumu ni turete seido ga takamari, kotosi [2007 nen] no IPCC dai-4-zi hookokusyo de wa, "Kikoo sisutemu no ondanka wa utagau yoti ga nai," "20 seiki nakaba ikoo ni kansoku sareta sekai heikin kion no zyoosyoo wa zin'i kigen no onsitu kooka gasu no zooka ni yotte motarasareta kanoosei ga kanari takai," to noberareru ni itatta. Kore wa 21 seiki no ondanka no mitoosi o sasaeru giron no hitotu ni natte iru.[atama]
Kore made "rironteki mitoosi" to nobete kita ga, zissai ni wa kikoo moderu to yobareru doogu ga tukawareru. Kikoo moderu ni wa riron to keiken ga kessyuu sarete iru ga, kihonteki ni wa riron no sanbutu de aru to kangaerareru.
Kikoo moderu wa keisanki-zyoo de ugoku puroguramu (en:program) de ari, sorezore 3-zigen no taiki ya kaiyoo no undoo ya ondo no henka o, zikan o otte keisan suru mono de aru. Moderu no kiso wa, situryoo hozon, enerugii hozon, undoo hooteisiki nado no kihonteki na buturi hoosoku o arawasu renritu hooteisiki de aru. Siki ni dete kuru kaku koo no ookisa o hyooka site, keta ga otiru mono wa syooryaku suru koto mo aru ga, onazi keta ni nari uru mono wa syooryaku sinai. Soo suru to renritu hooteisiki no ippan kai o motomeru koto wa dekinai ga, tokutei no syoki zyooken + kyookai zyooken ni taioo suru suuti kai o motomeru koto wa dekiru. Mata, siki no koo no uti ni wa, buturi hoosoku dake kara atai o motomeru koto ga zissai ni wa muzukasii mono ga aru. Soo iu baai wa, buturi hoosoku ni muzyun sinai yoo ni tyuui sinagara, keikensiki o buhin to site tukau. Kono koto o "parametarizeesyon" (en:parameterization) to yonde iru. Kono bubun no keikensiki no keisuu wa, kako no kansoku zizitu o moto ni kimerareru ga, simyureesyon no kekka o mite tyoosei (tyuuningu; en:tuning) sareru koto mo aru.
Moderu no seinoo o kakunin suru tame ni, kako no kikoo o saigen suru zikken ga okonawareru. Motiron kore wa moderu ga tadasii to iu syoomei de wa nai ga, zisseki o tumu koto ni yotte sinraido wa sidai ni agatte iru. Keisuu o tyuuningu site iru no dakara atte atarimae de wa nai ka to iu hihan wa atatte inai. Syakai kagaku nado no bun'ya de tukawareru zyunsui-keiken-teki moderu to wa tigatte, buturi hoosoku ga seiyaku ni natte iru node, komakaku keiken ni awaseru tyuuningu wa dekinai no da.[atama]
Ondanka kaigiron ni wa, "kagaku de mirai o yosoku suru koto wa hukanoo da" to iu kangae ni yoru mono mo aru.
Zitu wa, kore made ni IPCC de saiyoo sarete kita iwayuru ondanka yosoku zikken wa, tadasii imi de no yosoku (en:prediction) de wa nai. Kubetu site, purozyekusyon (en:projection) to yobarete iru.
IPCC no dai-4-zi hookokusyo ni mukete okonawareta syuyoo na purozyekusyon wa, Sekai Kikoo Kenkyuu Keikaku (WCRP) no Dai-3-zi Ketugoo Moderu Soogo Hikaku Purozyekuto (CMIP3) de aru. Kore ni sakidatte IPCC no bukai de, syakai no hatten no sikata ni kansuru ikutuka no sootei o site, sorezore no sootei no moto de nisankatanso nado no haisyutu-ryoo no zikeiretu o suikei sita sinario (en:scenario) ga tukurareta (Syuppan 2000 nen. Nao, soko de wa haisyutu-ryoo o isikiteki ni seigyo suru seisaku ga torareru koto wa sootei site inai.) Kore ni motozuki, taiki+umi+riku no aida no tanso zyunkan ni kansuru suuti moderu o tukatte, sorezore no sinario de no taiki-tyuu no noodo no zikeiretu ga erareta. CMIP3 de wa, hukusuu no kenkyuu guruupu ga sorezore no kikoo moderu ni kono noodo sinario o ataete, kikoo henka no simyureesyon o sita no de aru. Kekka wa, sinario ni yotte tigau si, onazi sinario de mo moderu-kan de haba o motu.
Motiron, kono mae no dan de tukawareta tanso zyunkan moderu wa kanzen to wa ienai si, kikoo to tanso zyunkan no aida no soogo sayoo mo aru ni tigai nai. Sokode saikin wa, kikoo moderu ni tanso zyunkan o mo kumikonda "tikyuu sisutemu moderu" ni yoru CMIP3 to wa betu no purozyekusyon mo okonawarete iru.
Mata, purozyekusyon o zikkoo sita keiken kara, kongo 30 nen teido ni kagireba, arisoo na hukusuu no sinario no aida no kikoo no tigai wa tiisai koto ga wakatta. Sokode kongo, kono kikan no kikoo henka yosoku (en:prediction) o okonau koosoo ga aru. Motiron tenki yohoo ya kisetu yohoo to tigai, tokutei no hi no tenki ya tokutei no tosi no tenkoo de wa naku, 10 nen kurai goto ni matometa kisetu goto no tookei-ti o yosoku suru koto ni naru.
Izure ni site mo, syakai wa, kagaku no dekiru koto no genkai o sitta ue de, sono tiken o tukatte ketudan o kudasite iku hituyoo ga aru.[atama]
Ondanka ni kansuru, toku ni senmon no tigau kagakusya no syutyoo no uti ni wa, nan-zyuu-nen ka mae no ninsiki ni motozuku mono ga aru yoo da. Ondanka kaigiron no uti ni wa, kikoo no kagaku ga sinrai dekinai riyuu to site, 1970 nendai no kagakusya ni yuukoo na kikoo no yosoku ga dekinakatta koto o ageru mono ga aru. Tasika ni ondanka no riron no kihon wa 1970 nendai kara kawatte inai ga, ue ni nobeta yoo ni syuuhen no tiken ga susumi, mata moderu no nooryoku wa haruka ni takamatta no da. Mata, ondanka hiteiron no uti no "nisankatanso no onsitu kooka wa hobo hoowa site iru" to iu giron wa 1970 nendai ni sude ni hitei sarete ita gakusetu to onazi de ari, doo hitei sareta ka wa senmon no kyookasyo de benkyoo sureba wakaru.
Tahoo, hikakuteki saikin kansin o moti hazimeta hitei ronsya ya kaigi ronsya no uti ni wa, 20 seiki no kansoku deeta (en:data) ni mirareru ondanka sigunaru (en:signal) ga yuui ka doo ka, aruiwa kansoku deeta to suuti moderu ni yoru saigen zikken to no hikaku ni tuite, komakai koto o mondai ni suru hito ga ooi. 21 seiki ni yosoo sareru henka ni kurabete tiisai henka o mondai ni site iru node, sigunaru na no ka noizu (en:noise) na no ka no kettyaku wa tuki nikui. Kagaku-nai no mondai to site wa deeta o kuwasiku kentoo suru no wa yoi koto da. Sikasi, syakai ni totte hituyoo na no wa 21 seiki ni kansuru rironteki mitoosi no hyooka de aru. 20 seiki no henka no kensyutu to gen'in tokutei wa, sono riron no tasikasa o hyooka suru syudan no hitotu to site hituyoo na kagiri de ronzireba yoi.[atama]
Purozyekusyon no sootei wa, syoorai okori uru kikoo henka yooin o subete tukusita mono de wa nai.
Purozyekusyon no kekka de wa kikoo wa hikakuteki nameraka ni henka site iku ga, ko-kikoo hukugen suitei aruiwa riron o senmon to suru kenkyuusya kara, kikoo ga motto kyuugeki ni henka suru kanoosei ga aru to iu siteki ga sarete iru. Siteki no ikutu ka (tatoeba tugi no 1, 2, 3) wa, purozyekusyon ni tukawareru kikoo moderu ni mada torikomarete inai (aruiwa zikkenteki ni torikomare hazimeta bakari no) purosesu ga sei no fiidobakku (en:feedback; henka o kyooka suru yoo na inga rensa) o motarasu kanoosei de aru. Mata, ikutu ka (tatoeba tugi no 4, 5) wa, kikoo ga genzai to wa daibu tigau zyootai ni ututte simau kanoosei de aru.
Tadasi, korera no suzigaki ga zitugen suru kakuritu wa mada kentoo mo tukanai. Mata, inga rensa no kanoosei o siteki sita hito wa zibun no suzigaki bakari o kyootyoo sigati da ga, mada dare mo omoi tuite inai inga rensa mo ari uru. Tuide ni iu to, hu no fiidobakku (henka o yowameru inga rensa) ga koosei sarete ondanka ga sizen ni kanwa sareru kanoosei mo, dooyoo na "odoroki" no zitai no hitotu to ieyoo.
Kono hoka ni, kikoo no soto no yooin ni yoru kikoo henka no kanoosei mo aru. Tatoeba, kazan no daikibo hunka ni yotte seisooken ni ryuusan eerozoru ga tukurare taiyoo-koo ga saegerarete itiziteki ni kanreika ga okoru kanoosei, taiyoo kara kuru enerugii ryoo ga ookiku hendoo suru kanoosei nado de aru.
Saiaku no zitai ni sonaeru beki da to iu rikutu wa mottomo de wa aru ga, mada kakuritu no kentoo ga tukanai "odoroki" no suzigaki wa, purozyekusyon o moto ni suisoku sareru suzigaki to dootoo ni atukau koto ga dekinai. Iroiro na "saiaku" no uti dore o zyuusi sitara yoi ka mo wakaranai. Watasi wa, ningen syakai wa kikoo henka ni nidan-gamae de sonaeru beki da to omou. Dai 1 ni, honryuu no purozyekusyon o sono haba to tomo ni sankoo ni site, zitugen suru mikomi ga takai henka ni sonaeru koto de aru. Kore ni wa yosoo sareru ondanka e no tekioo-saku to, ondanka o tiisaku todomeru tame no doryoku o hukumu. Dai 2 ni, fiidobakku to gaibu yooin no ryoohoo o hukumeta samazama na odoroki no kikoo henka o hizyoo zitai to site kooryo ni ire, syakai no tekioo nooryoku o sara ni hirogete oku koto de aru.[atama]
IPCC (en:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
wa, kikoo henka ni kansuru kagakuteki tiken o soogoo suru tame ni
Kokuren (Kokuren Kankyoo Keikaku [UNEP] oyobi Sekai Kisyoo Kikan [WMO])
no moto ni 1988 nen ni tukurareta sosiki de aru.
Kadai o, kikoo ga doo henka suru ka,
sore wa seitaikei ya ningen syakai ni doo eikyoo suru ka,
sono aku-eikyoo o kanwa suru ni wa doo sitara yoi ka ni wake,
mittu no sagyoo bukai ga tukurarete iru.
Oyoso 5 nen goto ni hyooka hookokusyo o dasite iru.
2007 nen wa dai-4-zi hookokusyo o dasu tosi de ari,
sude ni "Seisaku Ketteisya muke Yooyaku" (SPM) ga kakutei si, happyoo sareta.
Sono Nihongo yaku wa Kankyoo Syoo no webu peezi
http://www.env.go.jp/earth/ipcc/4th_rep.html kara sansyoo dekiru.
Hookokusyo honbun (Eigo) mo [kono bunsyoo ga "Sekai" ni deta ziten de wa
dai-1 sagyoo bukai no bun ga, sono go zenbu ga] Intaanetto-zyoo de kookai sarete iru.[atama]
1957 nen umare. Tookyoo Daigaku, Rigaku-kei Kenkyuuka, Tikyuu Buturigaku Senkoo, hakusi katei tan'i syutoku taigaku. Rigaku Hakusi. Genzai, Kaiyoo Kenkyuu Kaihatu Kikoo, Tikyuu Huront_ia (en:frontier) Kenkyuu Sentaa (en:center), Mizu Zyunkan Puroguramu, sabu-riidaa (en:sub-leader). [Kore wa 2007 nen genzai no syozoku to syoku-mei desu.] Senkoo wa guroobaru (en:global) suimon kikoogaku. Tyosyo ni "Kikoo Hendoo Ron" (Iwanami Kooza Tikyuu Wakusei Kagaku 11, buntan sippitu), Yakusyo ni WEART [waato] "Ondanka no 'Hakken' to wa Nani ka" (Misuzu Syoboo, kyoo-yaku). [atama]
[[Koko ni nobeta koto wa hissya no kozinteki kenkai de ari, kanarazusimo syozoku kikan no kenkai o daihyoo suru mono de wa arimasen.]] [atama]